Small business is getting ready for the season
Small business is getting ready for the season InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In April, there was still a visible recovery in economic activity, which began at the end of the first quarter. In the past month, 25.9 thousand new economic activities were registered, compared to 26.2 thousand in March 2021 and… 10.2 thousand in April 2020 – according to CEIDG data. In April 2021, we also recorded more resumptions of activity (13.4 thousand compared to 12.5 thousand in March 2021) and fewer suspensions (16.3 thousand compared to 18.7 thousand in March 2021). InfoCredit microenterprise indices went up again strongly after April. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed activities increased to +11,770 points from +10,171 points after March, and the ratio of resumed to suspended increased to -2,977 from -6,133 points. Since March, there has been a greater propensity to start and resume business activities. These may not be record values, as in the best months of last year, but it is clear that we are in a completely different situation than in April 2020. A year ago, small businesses were digging in, trying to cope with the restrictions resulting from the epidemic. Today, they are waiting for easing and trying to adapt to the opportunities that appear on the horizon. – April and early May brought entrepreneurs hope for a return to normality. The catering and hotel industries were waiting for the restrictions to be lifted and were slowly preparing to welcome guests. Poles, in turn, finally started planning trips and vacations. This encouraged the seasonal suspension of business activities. We hope that this trend will continue. However, this will depend on the decline in the number of cases and the pace of vaccinations – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. The IC Index, describing the ratio of new to closed businesses, is at its highest since October 2020, when we were just entering the 2nd wave of the epidemic. In turn, the IC Index describing the ratio of reopenings to suspensions is at its highest since the summer of 2020, i.e. the holiday season, when hotels, guesthouses and restaurants could enjoy the season. – With spring, hope returned for doing business in industries that were most affected by the epidemic. Especially since Poles want to use hotels and restaurants, the possibility of active recreation. The macro data that is coming in is quite optimistic. The first quarter of this year was rather the last in which we experienced a decline in GDP. Unemployment is relatively low, and wages in the corporate sector rose significantly in April. Although we feel inflation, interest rates are at record lows. This encourages consumption – adds Jerzy Wonka. In his opinion, the only threat that has appeared on the horizon for entrepreneurs is the New Deal. Small businesses are currently analyzing how the burden will increase with the estimated revenues in the coming months. – I am afraid that this may affect entrepreneurs’ decisions on the choice of the form of business activity – says Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than completed – negative. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended activities. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Thaw in micro-enterprises
Thaw in micro-enterprises InfoCredit Microenterprise Index After several months of stagnation, the number of new business activities in March 2021 increased to 26,229 from 21,285 in February (23,835 in January this year). In March 2020, 18,291 were recorded – according to data flowing into CEIDG.The entire first quarter of 2021 in business activities – thanks to a fairly good March – also looks promising. There were more new activities than a year ago. We also recorded significantly fewer suspensions (61,281 in Q1 2021 compared to 94,861 a year earlier). InfoCredit microenterprise indices went up significantly after March. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed activities increasedto +10,171 points from +7,678, and the ratio of resumed to suspended increased to-6,133 points from -8,197 points. The last month of Q1 2021 significantly changed the picture of micro-entrepreneurship that had been emerging since the autumn of last year. Poles were more willing to start new businesses, and there were significantly more resumptions month-on-month (m/m) and year-on-year (y/y). Suspensions remained unchanged m/m and significantly decreased y/y. What does this mean? – The March data is quite optimistic, but it is difficult to talk about a change in trend, considering the circumstances, i.e. the third wave of the epidemic. On the one hand, small businesses are certainly gradually adapting to the new reality. I do not want to say that it is becoming ordinary. Entrepreneurs are increasingly aware that things will not be the same as before COVID and are more and more willing to make strategic decisions. On the other hand, caution is still visible. That is why in March we have not yet noted any major positive changes, although it should be emphasized that there has not been such panic in suspensions as last year for 11 months – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. Let us recall – last year, the end of the first quarter brought a wave of suspensions of activities due to the first restrictions and growing uncertainty. In March 2020 alone, 48,624 activities were suspended, and 28,432 in the last 10 days alone. Meanwhile, in the whole of March 2021, we recorded 18,652 suspensions. – It is also encouraging that in the entire first quarter we recorded 71,349 new businesses, compared to 69,517 a year earlier. The number of closures and reopenings is comparable. There are significantly fewer suspensions than a year ago. And this is not the effect of pushing full-time employees into business activity, taking into account the latest preliminary data from the labor market. The unemployment rate in March was 6.4% and was slightly lower than in February. However, we will be able to get a full picture of what is happening in microentrepreneurship after the second quarter of 2021, when the data will be relatively comparable. We will be able to compare the entire 3 months of the 2021 epidemic with the entire 3 months of the 2020 epidemic – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in microentrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses, it is negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Business has chosen a waiting tactic
Business has chosen a waiting tactic InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In February 2021, 21.3 thousand businesses were established, 13.6 thousand were closed. Almost 10 thousand were resumed and 18.2 thousand were suspended. In the same period last year, the figures were 23.4 thousand (new), 13.1 (closed), 11.7 (resumed) and 19 thousand (suspended), respectively – according to CEDIG data. The advantage of suspending over unsuspending in February 2021 continues to fall. The InfoCredit index increased from -15,816 points after January to -8,197 points currently. There were 7,678 more new businesses than those closed. This means another monthly increase in the index describing the ratio of new to completed businesses from 6,093 points after January and from 1,306 points in December 2020. There would be nothing alarming in the February data, if not for the fact that fewer and fewer applications are being submitted to CEIDG (excluding those for minor changes in entries). In February 2021, CEIDG received a total of 63,000 of them, compared to 67.2 thousand a year earlier. So there are still not only fewer new and suspended businesses, but also fewer closed and suspended businesses. Business has dug in and is waiting for better times. This applies not only to small businesses, but also to companies registered in the National Court Register. This is clearly visible in the year-on-year comparison. All the more so because February 2020, as a reference point, was the last month of relative “normality” and fairly good economic conditions before the outbreak of the epidemic. What next? Of course, it depends on how the situation develops, further restrictions and consumer sentiment. The number of applications submitted to CEIDG is decreasing month by month. A similar phenomenon is beginning to be visible in the REGON register, where in February the number of newly registered entities dropped by 5.5% to 27,126 counted m/m (GUS data). When it comes to business entities, this trend was already visible last year. In 2020, 311.8 thousand entities were registered, compared to 355.8 in 2019. In the second quarter of 2020, when the epidemic was gaining momentum, 64.4 thousand were registered. entities compared to 94.4 in the same period of 2019. In the fourth quarter, when it was gaining momentum again, 75.9 thousand were registered, compared to 78.3 thousand a year earlier. Interestingly, the number of bankruptcies is also falling significantly. – This means that Polish business is falling into a state of lethargy. We have already become accustomed to the fact that the situation is changing rapidly and new decisions have to be made from day to day. We are not sure whether tomorrow will bring tightening or easing of restrictions. This is not conducive to bold decisions and registration of new businesses. And this is both in the form of activity, which is very flexible, but also in opening new commercial law entities. There are, of course, industries that have benefited from the technological revolution and the increasing interpenetration of real and virtual reality. But there are also those that are in lethargy. By accepting help, they cannot go bankrupt – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. In January, 24 companies declared bankruptcy. This is 19% less month-on-month and as much as 45% less year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, 106 business entities went bankrupt, compared to 159 in the same period a year earlier. In all of 2020, 528 entities went bankrupt, compared to 578 the previous year. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Fewer and fewer applications to CEIDG
Fewer and fewer applications to CEIDG InfoCredit Microenterprise Index The activity of micro-entrepreneurs continues to decline. In January 2021, CEIDG received a total of 74.7 thousand applications compared to 88.04 thousand a year earlier. The trend that we noted in Q4 2020 is therefore continuing. There are not only fewer new and suspended businesses, but also fewer closed and suspended businesses. In January 2021, 23.4 thousand businesses were established, 17.74 thousand were closed, 8.66 thousand were resumed and 24.5 thousand were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, it was 27.84 thousand (new), 21.76 (closed), 11.24 (resumed) and 27.2 thousand (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data. The advantage of those suspending over those unsuspending in January 2021 was smaller than in December. The InfoCredit Index rose from -21,834 points to -15,816. There were 6,093 more new businesses than closed ones. This means a significant increase in the index describing the ratio of new to closed businesses from 1,306 points in December. January this year was another month in which CEIDG received fewer applications than a year earlier. And all of them, including those for closing and suspending business. And it has been like this since October 2020. – We are becoming less active. Not only in terms of new businesses, but also those being resumed and closed. Yes, suspensions still clearly outweigh resumptions, or even new ones, but there were fewer of them than a year ago. One of the reasons is undoubtedly the situation in the economy and the crisis, which has hit many industries very hard. It is difficult to expect anyone to open or resume seasonal activities in the tourism or catering industry for the winter, since these were suspended – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at the analytical company InfoCredit. In his opinion, the situation is also complicated by the uncertainty related to whether the epidemic will develop or not. For now, the beginning of February has brought an increase in the number of applications, including those for new businesses, but after a few days the situation returned to normal. – It is difficult to expect micro-entrepreneurship to flourish again in the coming weeks. Especially since the Polish labor market has shown great resistance to the epidemic. Yes, unemployment increased in December, but only to 6.2% from 6.1% in November. A slightly larger increase, according to preliminary data, was recorded in January 2021, to 6.5% (5.5% a year earlier), but the situation is still not bad. Many of us value full-time employment more in uncertain times. Those who wanted to change something in their professional life from the new year and try their hand at entrepreneurship may postpone bold decisions – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses, it is negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Fewer new businesses than in 2019
Fewer new businesses than in 2019 In 2020, there was less activity than in the previous year In the whole of 2020, 262.9 thousand businesses were established, 146.2 thousand were closed, 163.3 thousand were resumed and 250.1 thousand were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, it was 309.9 thousand (new), 173.3 (closed), 160.3 (resumed) and 306.9 thousand (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data.In December last year, 1306 more businesses were established than closed. The InfoCredit index recorded a significant drop, but its value remained positive (in November 2020 it was + 7263 points). In the last month of 2020, 19.8 thousand businesses were opened, 18.5 thousand were closed.There were again significantly more people suspending their business in December 2020 than resuming it. The InfoCredit index has thus deepened its decline to -21,834 points. It is the lowest since March 2020, when entrepreneurs, under the influence of uncertainty, began to submit applications for suspension en masse. However, there was no such anxiety as in March. There was also no assault on the CEIDG system. The last weeks of December did not bring a revival in applications submitted to the CEDG. Although as many as 29,905 activities were suspended compared to 8,071 resumed, the situation was similar to the end of 2019. At that time, 10,312 activities were resumed and 37,381 were suspended. The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of renewals to suspensions at the end of 2019, was worth -27,069 points, which is much lower than after November 2020. Usually, at the end of the year, there are much more suspensions than renewals. Compared to November, we noted a significant increase in business closures. In December 2020, there were 18,514 such applications compared to 11,086 a month earlier. There were almost as many new businesses as a month earlier (19,820 compared to 19,493 in November 2020). This is also a seasonal effect. The end of the year favors suspensions and closures, especially with such uncertainty and restrictions as today. – The last quarter brought a significant drop in activity in submitting applications to CEIDG and this is the only worrying signal from micro-entrepreneurs. This was visible in each category. In the first three quarters of this year, Poles were much more willing to take matters into their own hands. Those who saw their chance started new businesses, and there were much fewer definitely closed businesses than new ones. Those who did not see the chance suspended or closed their businesses. Now they are stuck in limbo waiting for better times – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director of the analytical company InfoCredit. According to Jerzy Wonka, the second wave of the epidemic and the increase in cases in the autumn could have influenced the decisions of micro-entrepreneurs. For now, when restrictions in many industries are maintained and extended, and revenues are significantly lower, it is difficult to be optimistic and start or suspend a business. Hence – perhaps – the lower number of applications than at the end of 2019. The second issue is the much better situation on the labor market than it might have seemed six months earlier. The registered unemployment rate in December was 6.2% – according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Development, Labor and Technology. At the beginning of 2020, it was 5.5%. The economic collapse did not result in a significant increase in unemployment. – Many people still believe that a full-time job in difficult, unstable times is a better idea than starting a business on your own. This is also the reason why many people could have postponed starting a business in the last quarter of 2020 – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat
The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In November of this year, 7,263 more businesses were established than were closed. The InfoCredit index remains in a significant positive position, but it is lower than in November 2019 (then +9,217 points). This is due to the fact that since September 2020, the number of new businesses has been falling slightly each month. The number of businesses closed since September has remained consistently above 12,000 per month. There were significantly more people suspending their businesses in November 2020 than those resuming them. The InfoCredit index has thus deepened the decline to -18,118 points. It is also lower than in November 2019 (then -14,084). Overall, however, comparing 11 months of this year to the same period in 2019, nothing alarming is happening. From January to November 2020, 243,100 businesses were established, 127,658 were closed. 155,190 were resumed, and 250,118 were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, the figures were 290,314 (new), 149,534 (closed), 149,979 (resumed) and 269,473 (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data. The closer to the end of the year, the less activity in CEIDG. It might seem that what was supposed to happen in the current – very volatile year for the economy – has already happened. – However, it is worth waiting until the end of December to draw final conclusions. At that time, the number of closed and suspended businesses usually increases significantly, seasonally. Today, after 11 months of this year, it seems that the situation is starting to stabilize. However, I do not think that this year we will improve the result from 2019 in terms of new businesses. At that time, there were almost 310 thousand of them – says Jerzy Wonka, development director of the analytical company InfoCredit. This year is very difficult for entrepreneurs. Especially the smallest ones. The end of March brought a sudden increase in the number of suspended businesses under the influence of impulse and uncertainty. The next one is a gradual increase in interest in this form of economic activity. Until September. Now, the data from 2019 and 2020 are becoming more and more comparable. Does this mean a return to normality? – Now, in October and November, we see stabilization, after six-month fluctuations. The end of the first quarter and the so-called panic among micro-entrepreneurs was a one-off phenomenon. Later, by the end of Q3, we saw an increase in interest in sole proprietorships, reaching all-time record values. This was not entirely the result of us increasingly valuing independence and having an idea for a business. For employers and clients, this is a very convenient form of remuneration for co-workers and service providers. Much more convenient than, for example, a full-time job or a civil law contract. Especially in times when you have to keep an eye on costs – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
September is once again a month of suspensions
September is once again a month of suspensions InfoCredit Microenterprise Index InfoCredit’s forecasts for September have been confirmed. The number of new businesses continues to grow, and the InfoCredit indicator describing the ratio of businesses being established to those being closed is again rising strongly. It is true that we have noted a significant predominance of suspended businesses over those being resumed, but this is a typical phenomenon at the end of August and September, when the holiday season ends. New burdens may increase the attractiveness of the simplest form of entrepreneurship. In September, 26,797 new businesses were established, 13,796 were closed. 11,889 were resumed and 26,084 were suspended – according to preliminary CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, rose from 12,550 points to 13,001 points. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses being resumed to those being closed fell from -9,461 points to -14,195 points. As usual, most businesses were suspended in the last days of the month. In the last ten days of September, i.e. from 21 to 30 September, CEIDG received 15,550 such applications (as many as 11,508 in the last 3 days). This is a planned action that usually repeats itself at this time of year. We noted a similar phenomenon in the last 10 days of September 2018, when 14,277 were suspended, and in 2019, when 16,199 were suspended. On the other hand, those starting new businesses still have a big advantage over those closing them. This means that this form of entrepreneurship is holding up very well. The number of micro-entrepreneurs is still record-breaking, taking into account the whole picture of the situation. In the entire third quarter of this year, 75,443 new businesses were created, 34,340 were closed. 37,199 businesses were resumed, and 57,043 were suspended. The simplest form of business will still be popular In the coming months, it will still be worth closely monitoring applications submitted to CEIDG. This is related not only to rising labor costs, a more difficult situation on the labor market and market flexibility. Changes in the forms of taxation of entrepreneurs may also have an impact on traffic in CEIDG. – We are closely monitoring the plans to impose CIT on limited partnerships. Our databases show that this will affect almost 73 thousand entrepreneurs who are co-owners of approximately 43 thousand limited partnerships. Our calculations show that after the changes are introduced, as many as 25% of limited partnerships, which account for 90% of the revenue generated by these businesses (i.e. almost PLN 300 billion annually!) will pay 19% CIT. Effectively, the interest rate for partners in these companies, mainly Polish entrepreneurs, will increase to 34% or, in the case of people paying the solidarity tax, to 38% – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit Development Director. In his opinion, the introduction of double taxation for partners in limited partnerships may cause them to start analyzing other forms of conducting business, including economic activity. – The InfoCredit Index has been signaling for many months that when there are fewer positions, there are more sole proprietorships. And these have a much lower ability to achieve market success than limited partnerships, which already have an established position on the market – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
End of August? We are suspending
End of August? We are suspending InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In August, almost twice as many businesses were suspended as were resumed, so the InfoCredit index fell well below 0. This is the first drop since March and immediately significant. However, this is not a reason to worry, because it is a seasonal phenomenon. The number of businesses is still growing. The new/closed ratio, in turn, is strongly positive. Interestingly, traffic in CEIDG was much lower than in the corresponding months of 2019 and 2018. Last month, 23,006 businesses were registered, 10,456 were closed. 10,128 businesses were resumed, and 19,589 were suspended – according to preliminary CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 12,550 points, moving away from this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses reopened to those closed fell to -9,461 points. This is the lowest value since March of this year, when entrepreneurs concerned about the decline in revenues as a result of restrictions related to the epidemic massively suspended their businesses. However, this cannot be treated as a retreat from business. In the same period in recent years, there was a significant increase in suspensions, especially in the last decade of the month. Two different index readings. What’s the deal? The data from the entire month do not show this phenomenon well in terms of resumptions and suspensions. To better assess them, you need to look at the last decades of August in recent years. From 22 to 31.08.2018, 20,585 businesses were suspended, 6,360 were resumed. From 22 to 31.08.2019, 18,107 businesses were suspended, and 4,852 were resumed. This year’s result (13,715 vs. 3,544) is therefore no surprise. It is worth emphasizing that the indicator describing the ratio of new to closed businesses in the last decades of August 2018 – 2020 was constantly positive. – In August, mainly those entrepreneurs who run their businesses seasonally close their businesses. This is a normal phenomenon. In turn, at the end of June, those who work from September to the end of the school year suspend their businesses. This year was similar. What will it be like in September? It seems that it should be the same as in previous years. Today, however, it is difficult to say anything for sure, because the impact of the situation related to the epidemic on the market and the labor market cannot be predicted – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at InfoCredit. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index 06/08/2020
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index 06/08/2020 New businesses are still growing, the indicator is close to record values In July, those who want to take matters into their own hands still had a clear advantage. This is true both among new entrepreneurs and those who already know the taste of their own business and have suspended it for various reasons. The holiday season did not change much here. 25,640 businesses were registered, 10,088 were closed. 15,182 businesses were resumed, and 11,370 were suspended – according to CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 15,552 points, remaining close to this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses being resumed to those being closed fell to 3,812 points, but remained clearly positive. It has remained above 0 for three months in a row, which has not happened since the beginning of 2018. Previously, in 2019 and 2018, it was positive only twice. Self-employed means cheaper The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than completed – negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Data from the last 4 months confirm that the panic we saw among entrepreneurs in March was a one-off event. At that time, 48,624 entrepreneurs suspended their business activity, and 11,680 ended it. In the last 10 days alone, 28,432 businesses were suspended and 3,124 were terminated. What does this mean? We are certainly gradually adapting to the new reality. Those who were to suspend or terminate their business due to the epidemic have already done so. Today, they are gradually returning to it or waiting for a better moment. On the other hand, changes in the labor market are forcing a return to self-employment. An employee or specialist running his or her own business is more competitive on the labor market because he or she is cheaper from the employer’s perspective. We are waiting for the holidays with resumptions During the holiday season, the number of resumptions of business activity dropped significantly, which had an impact on the total number of applications that went through the CEIDG system. This is the lowest this year. In total, the system processed 62,280 applications from entrepreneurs, compared to 72,639 in June. In March this year, which was exceptional due to the sudden increase in suspensions, as many as 90,028 applications were submitted. This is due to the fact that some micro-entrepreneurs, mainly those who do not employ employees, suspend their business for the holidays to simply rest. And since there is no income, they do not want to incur costs either. 15,182 businesses were resumed, compared to 25,576 in June and 23,597 in May. However, the InfoCredit index describing the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses remained positive. There was no significant increase in business suspensions – 11,370 were recorded, compared to 9,582 in June and 11,278 in May. Those who wanted to freeze their micro-businesses had already done so before the holidays. And especially in March, when the economy was frozen. Interestingly, the seasonal decline is not visible among new, closed and suspended businesses. – This year, our index is behaving differently than in previous years. That is why it is worth following it. The best example is March. In the following months, it seemed that the economy was slowly returning to normal. There was a demand for seasonal work. Poles are eager to take vacations. What will happen next? Nobody knows and it is increasingly difficult to make forecasts. On the one hand, the June data from the Central Statistical Office on unemployment, average wages and employment in the enterprise sector were better than expected. On the other hand, in June there were 208 thousand more unemployed people year on year. That is a lot. The number of cases is growing instead of falling, so we have to return to restrictions. I think that in the coming months the data and indications of our index may still surprise us a lot – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl