InfoCredit Business Activity Index
InfoCredit Business Activity Index Microbusiness on hold In the first three quarters of 2023, 268.6 thousand businesses were suspended. This is much more than in the same period of 2022 (249.7 thousand) and in 2021 (174.9 thousand). In the third quarter of 2023 alone, 96.3 thousand businesses were suspended, compared to 88.4 thousand a year ago and 72.7 thousand in 2021. The increase in the number of suspensions affected the InfoCredit business activity index. When counted quarterly after September 2023, it dropped significantly to -19,471 points, compared to -9,124 points a year ago and -5,523 points after September 2021. This year, the number of suspended businesses has been growing steadily. There are about as many terminated as in 2022, the first year in which the Polish Deal was in force. And it was still a weak year for micro-entrepreneurs. New and resumed micro-businesses do not compensate for the losses. On the contrary – the imbalance between those in the plus and those in the minus is constantly deepening. In the first three quarters of this year, 368.8 thousand businesses were established and resumed, 412.8 thousand were terminated and closed. It was similar a year ago, but the advantage of the latter was not so significant – 357.3 thousand compared to 393.7 thousand. It is also worth noting that the InfoCredit index after Q3 has never been so low. So we can say that the simplest form of business is experiencing an increasing crisis, and the trend that began to emerge in 2020 is strengthening. Let us recall – in 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand were terminated. activity – the most since 2014. Everything indicates that last year’s inglorious records are at risk. If in the fourth quarter entrepreneurs suspend as many activities as in the third, the result from 2022 will be beaten. There can be only one conclusion – micro-entrepreneurs need support like never before. They have been struggling with crises practically since the beginning of 2020. First with restrictions related to the epidemic, then with the effects of the war in Ukraine, inflation, increased operating costs and now with the burdens related to the Polish Deal. And on the horizon – more burdens. In accordance with the adopted assumptions of the draft state budget for 2024, the average salary will amount to PLN 7,824. This means an increase of as much as 12.8 percent compared to 2023. As a result, the amount of ZUS contributions for companies will increase significantly again. Not to mention the minimum wage. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is in the positive, it means that more businesses have been established and suspended than suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
IC index lower than a year ago
IC index lower than a year ago INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR The second quarter brought a slight increase in activity in economic activities in Poland. The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of new and resumed microbusinesses to closed and suspended ones, rose slightly. However, it is far from optimistic. The past three months were much weaker than in the years 2019-2022. The index, counted quarterly, was much higher then. In the second quarter of this year, there were more new and resumed economic activities (a total of 131.2 thousand) than closed and suspended ones (127,252). This is a seasonal phenomenon – this usually happens in the period April – June). The closer to the holidays, the more seasonal businesses are opened and resumed. The problem is that in the years 2019-2022 in the second quarter the predominance of new and suspended activities was much greater. In 2019 (the last before the pandemic), our quarterly index was worth +27,815 points). In 2020 (a strong rebound after a weak Q3 due to restrictions) it was worth as much as +47,601 points. Even last year, when entrepreneurs were already feeling the increasing burden (the Polish Deal and inflation caused a retreat from the simplest form of business), the index was at 16,784 points. This year it is only 3,939 points. The same is true for our indicator on a monthly basis. Our index grew from December (then it was worth -26,867 points) to April (then +5,912 points). And this was a normal phenomenon (we usually record the greatest retreat from activity at the turn of the year). The problem is that in May it began to slide again, to take a negative value in June (-3,640 points), which we usually did not record. Usually in June the index is positive. In 2019 it was worth +3,739 points, a year later even +27,920 points (again – a strong rebound after the first months of the epidemic). Even a year ago, after very weak first months (Polish Deal, effects of the war in Ukraine), it was worth +3,575 points. The effect? In the entire first half of 2023, we recorded fewer new and resumed activities than closed and suspended ones. The losses from the first quarter have not been made up for. The data still shows the crisis of the simplest form of running a business. Let us recall – in 2022 (Polish Deal), a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand businesses were terminated – the most since 2014. The main reason was unstable tax regulations and rising operating costs. It is difficult to talk about a rebound this year. Our indices are sinking lower and lower. They could be even lower if not for the support of Ukrainian citizens. In recent months, we have been recording more and more business activities registered in Poland by our neighbors. In 2022, Ukrainians established 17.5 thousand businesses in Poland (5.6 percent of all). From the beginning of 2023 to the end of May alone, 13.2 businesses run by Ukrainian citizens were registered in Poland, which means that there may be much more of them than last year. Details in the commentary Poland – a good place for Ukrainian entrepreneurship, prepared by InfoCredit and the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and resumed than suspended and closed. The higher the index value – the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
IC index bounces off the bottom
IC index bounces off the bottom INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR In the first quarter of 2023, there were again – for the third time in a row – more applications for termination and suspension of business activities in Poland than for establishment and resumption. The InfoCredit index, describing this relationship, is therefore still in the red – both quarterly and monthly. It is somewhat comforting that the index has moved away from the bottom of 2022 and 2021. The situation is improving slightly from month to month. In the first three months of 2023, 119,847 business activities were established and resumed, 147,601 thousand were terminated and resumed. The index was therefore worth -27,754 points quarterly. This is much better than in the fourth quarter of 2022 (-41,060 points) and better than in the first quarter of 2022 (-44,087). January 2023 was still quite weak (the index after the first month was worth -17,202 points), but the following months brought a rebound. In February, there were 6,234 more closed and suspended businesses than new and reopened ones, and in March only 925 more. Does this mean we will soon break even? The trend is upward. April, May and June are seasonally conducive to starting and resuming business activities. This was the case last year and previous years. April 2020 was an exception, but that was only the second month of restrictions due to the pandemic. This year, everything indicates that we will now come out on top. There were 6,284 more businesses started and resumed in April than closed and suspended businesses (as of 18.04). Seasonality in CEIDG data is very visible. Usually, in the first and fourth quarters there was a retreat from business, the second and third quarters of the year balanced these outflows and even brought a surplus. In recent years, however, a very disturbing phenomenon of a crisis in the simplest form of running a business has been visible. Business activities have been gradually decreasing. Let us recall – 2021 was already disturbing in this respect. In 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand were terminated. business – the most since 2014. The main reason was unstable tax regulations and rising business costs. What will happen this year? For now, we can talk about a slight rebound. We will be able to say more after Q2 and Q3 of this year. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Our dear little business
Our dear little business INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX January 2023 was another month in which there were more applications for the suspension and termination of business activities than those started and resumed. The InfoCredit index, which describes this relationship, has been in the red for 7 months. This means that active business activities are not increasing. On the contrary, they are decreasing. The past month is slightly better than January 2022. In the first month of this year, 40,308 activities were started and resumed, 62,086 were ended and closed. Our index therefore reached a value of -21,778 points. In January 2022, 35,520 activities were started and resumed, and 65,386 were ended and closed. Our index was then worth -29,866 points after a slight increase since December 2021 (then -35,716 points, the lowest in history, lower even than after March 2020, when the epidemic broke out). This was the result of confusion and concerns related to the tax reform under the Polish Deal. Micro-entrepreneurs considered the changes to be unfavourable for them and began to withdraw en masse from the form of running a business in the form of a business. Now, at the turn of 2022 and 2023, it can be assumed that this is the result of the rising costs of the simplest form of running a business. Seasonality is visible in the quotations of our index. That is – the index always drops at the turn of the year, because we note an increase in the suspension of activities. However, in recent years, this phenomenon has been gaining momentum. Similar fluctuations in the index on a monthly basis (although smaller) are observed before and after the holidays. In May and June, entrepreneurs who run their business seasonally suspend their activities, only to suspend them again after the holiday season. In turn, those who want to take advantage of holidays suspend their activities so as not to incur unnecessary costs. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Small business on hold
Small business on hold InfoCredit Business Activity Index In 2022, CEIDG received a total of over one million applications for the establishment, resumption, suspension and termination of business activity. This is the highest in 9 years, i.e. since 2014. The vast majority of applications, however, concerned the suspension of business activity. There were as many as 347.3 thousand of them. This is a record. Last year, 193.2 thousand businesses were terminated – the highest since 2014. The InfoCredit business activity index calculated quarterly fell to the value from the turn of 2021 and 2022. Year-on-year and taking into account seasonality, it is sinking lower and lower. After two years of a significant decline in the activity of Poles due to the epidemic, last year we finally noted a significant increase in the number of applications submitted to CEIDG. In 2020 and 2021, there were almost 850 and 891 thousand, respectively. Last year, exactly 1,003,653. This would be a reason for optimism if most of them concerned new businesses. Unfortunately, this is not the case. There were 463.1 thousand new and resumed businesses in total, 540.6 thousand terminated and suspended. The number of applications to suspend business activity in particular is worrying, as many as 347.3 thousand. This is a record result. There were 193.2 thousand terminated businesses, the highest number since 2014 and 2013, when there were 208.2 thousand and 235.6 thousand, respectively. The number of applications for suspensions did not increase abruptly at the end of the year, but gradually, throughout the year. In the first half of the year, there were 161.3 thousand (in the first half of 2021, 115.6 thousand). In the second half, 186.1 thousand, compared to 162.7 thousand in the same period of 2021. In the fourth quarter, 97.7 thousand suspensions were recorded, compared to 90 thousand in the last three months of 2021. Only December 2022 was calmer. 39.6 thousand businesses were suspended then, compared to 42.4 thousand in December 2021. However, at the end of 2021, we noted a significant increase in closed and suspended businesses, because entrepreneurs did not like the chaos and ambiguity associated with the Polish Deal. The last three years are difficult to compare, because they brought a significant increase in uncertainty and events that we had not seen before. 2020 and 2021 are a time of epidemics and restrictions. The turn of 2021 and 2022 brought us the Polish Deal, huge confusion in tax regulations and rising inflation. The last 11 months have already seen a huge increase in the costs of running a business, not only due to additional tax and contribution burdens, but above all due to the sudden increase in the prices of raw materials and energy. That is why first, in 2020 and 2021, we observed a decrease in activity in submitting applications to CEIDG, and now we are seeing more and more of them. The number of closures is not increasing so quickly, because it is easier to go into a state of suspension, to observe the situation and postpone the decision. The situation in the general statistics is somewhat saved by the increase in the number of established and resumed businesses. In 2022, we recorded 310.2 thousand new ones, 152.9 thousand resumed, i.e. a total of 463.1 thousand. (in 2020 and 2021, 425.3 and 436.4 thousand, respectively). However, it is still far from the best years in this respect, i.e. 2017 and 2018, when there were over 491 thousand of them in total. The upward trend in suspended activities has been ongoing since mid-2021, when the assumptions of the Polish Deal were presented. There is no indication that it will end soon. The beginning of 2023 was not good either. By January 23, 27.7 thousand activities had been established and resumed, and as many as 40.5 thousand had been terminated and suspended. Wnioski rocznie Year Assumption* End Suspension Sum 2022 463 080 193 227 347 346 1 003 653 2021 436 365 176 137 278 282 890 784 2020 425 334 142 375 281 809 849 518 2019 470 184 173 320 306 853 950 357 2018 491 647 177 083 303 270 972 000 2017 491 234 178 898 309 242 979 374 2016 465 970 181 053 307 132 954 155 2015 476 947 192 987 311 854 981 788 2014 487 240 208 188 314 652 1 010 080 2013 486 902 235 630 312 548 1 035 080 2012 423 655 49 968 297 380 771 003 Suma 5 118 558 1 908 866 3 370 368 10 397 792 * It includes applications for starting and resuming a business. Source: CEIDG InfoCredit Business Activity Index Starting this year, we are changing the rules for presenting the InfoCredit Business Activity Index. Instead of showing the ratio of new to closed and resumed to suspended businesses, we will publish the ratio of new and resumed to closed and suspended businesses. When the index shows positive values, it means that more businesses have been established and resumed than suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. Similarly, when the index shows values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). To start with, we present the index on a quarterly basis. After January, we will also present it on a monthly basis. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Welcome back Grey Zone. 2.0
Welcome back Grey Zone. 2.0 InfoCredit Business Activity Index In the first half of 2022, and mainly in the second quarter, entrepreneurs tried to adapt to the new reality. Inflationary, tax-war reality. There were more new and resumed business activities than in the same periods of 2021 and 2020. The problem is that there were much more suspensions and terminations of activities than in the previous two years. On the one hand, the cancellation of the epidemic and the lifting of restrictions brought new opportunities. On the other hand, the increase in tax burdens and costs forced many businesses to suspend and close. Polish entrepreneurs, especially micro entrepreneurs, perfectly sense every business opportunity and every problem. We have been learning about this since the transformation. They have been building Poland’s GDP and economic success since 1989. – Can’t you cope with the burdens with the current regulations? Back off. Is there an opportunity? Take advantage! This is how Polish entrepreneurs have approached work for years. In the last three years, with such huge volatility of the economy and business conditions, this has been clearly visible. So what if there are more new and resumed economic activities in Q2 than in the same periods of 2021 and 2020? There are many more suspensions and closures – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at the analytical company InfoCredit. Let’s look at the data. There were 238,336 new and resumed businesses in the first half of 2022. This is much more than in 2021 and 2020 (229,276 and 223,220, respectively). Suspensions and terminations? 265,500 in the first half of 2022, compared to 198,485 in 2021 and 213,395 two years earlier. We observed the greatest escape from business activity at the turn of 2021 and 2022. In January 2022, 26,528 applications were recorded to start a new business and 8,901 to resume it. 37,626 thousand entrepreneurs suspended their business and 27,235 thousand terminated it. No wonder, entrepreneurs were already afraid of higher tax burdens and confusion related to the Polish Deal. ZUS contributions also increased significantly – pension from PLN 615.93 to PLN 693.58 and disability from PLN 252.43 to PLN 284.26 (+12.61%). – The data clearly shows what is happening in our economy. On the one hand, we have the opening and resumption of seasonal holiday businesses for the first time in three years without restrictions. On the other – an escape from rising costs, taxes, unpredictability. The reduction of the PIT tax rate from July 2022 for people settling in the first threshold could have had some impact on the opening of seasonal business activities – adds Jerzy Wonka. Holiday business opportunities without restrictions related to the epidemic caused the Index describing the ratio of new and resumed activities to bounce back strongly. The problem is that the index describing the ratio of suspended and terminated businesses is diving again. Conclusions? Let’s prepare for turbulence in the third quarter. They will come in September and October, along with the increase in energy prices and the costs of doing business. – Our last report after the first quarter of 2022 was entitled “Welcome back Grey Zone”. Not much has changed after the first half of the year. We are still heading towards the grey zone. Small businesses do not like a vacuum. They will do their thing. I am afraid that we are returning to the times when “cash is the king”. The problem is that this does not apply to the złoty. Our currency is becoming hot paper. With such high inflation, small entrepreneurs will again rush to exchange money earned in the grey zone – as in the 1990s – for dollars and francs, in order to lose as little as possible. The weak złoty, on the other hand, is an opportunity for those who cooperate with foreign entities and receive part or all of their remuneration in euro or dollars – says Jerzy Wonka. And what is the state of economic activity in general? According to CEIDG data, three years ago there were 2,548,016 active business activities, including those conducted exclusively in the form of a civil partnership, compared to 2,601,617 at the end of the first half of 2022. This means that the number of active small businesses in Poland remains more or less constant. However, there was a sudden increase in suspended activities – from 449,296 after the first half of 2019 to 566,495 after the first half of 2019. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new activities than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended activities. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Welcome back Grey Zone?
Welcome back Grey Zone? The Polish order has effectively frozen the plans of enterprising Poles. January was another disastrous month when it comes to the simplest business activity. Similarly to December 2021, significantly more applications were submitted to CEIDG for suspension and termination than for the establishment and resumption of a sole proprietorship. InfoCredit indices are still the lowest since March 2020, when entrepreneurs first reacted nervously to restrictions related to the epidemic. In January 2022, 26,528 applications were recorded for starting a new business and 8,901 for resuming it. 37,626 thousand entrepreneurs suspended their business and 27,235 thousand terminated it. – The tax system in force since 2022 can hardly be called transparent. There are opinions that it is the most complicated in the history of free economic activity. It is therefore difficult to expect other effects, such as those visible at the end of last year and at the beginning of this year. We regularly monitor economic activity. Since the beginning of the epidemic, we have been constantly publishing the InfoCredit index to analyze the impact of economic fluctuations on the propensity to entrepreneurship in Poland. This has been decreasing since the first half of 2021, when the assumptions of the tax system reform were announced – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. The mass retreat and decline of the InfoCredit entrepreneurship index, the lowest since March 2020, was recorded in December 2021. At that time, 24,207 new businesses were established and 9,110 were resumed. 41,480 were suspended and 26,344 were closed. The turn of the year usually brings more activity in CEIDG, but a year ago it was not so bad. Let’s look at the data for January 2021: – new businesses 23,550;– resumed 8,574;– suspended 24,104;– closed 16,412. – The industry says that the New Deal, tested in Poland, can now be exported to Russia under sanctions. This is a bitter joke and I am far from laughing. The truth is, however, that entrepreneurs have issued an unequivocal assessment of the new tax regulations. With such inflation and a very tense geopolitical situation, it would be worth considering suspending the reform. I am afraid that with the growing burden on entrepreneurs, not only due to tax reasons but also due to the increase in fuel, currency and raw material prices, we will once again be dealing with an increasingly large grey zone – adds Jerzy Wonka. In February, the situation is gradually starting to normalize. In the first half of the month, 11,358 businesses were established, 4,907 were resumed, 10,291 were suspended and 7,979 were terminated. – There are more suspensions and terminations in total, but this advantage is gradually disappearing. We are waiting for data for the entire month, which will include the first days of the war in Ukraine. Only then will it be possible to draw more complete conclusions – says Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
InfoCredit Business Activity Index Entrepreneurs vote with their feet – The InfoCredit Business Activity Index, describing the ratio of new to terminated business activities, fell to its lowest level in two years in December 2021. The same was true for the indicator describing the ratio of resumed to suspended activities. – In December 2021, there was a similar retreat from sole proprietorships as in March 2020, when entrepreneurs were terrified by restrictions due to the developing epidemic. One of the reasons was tax uncertainty. – In the entire fourth quarter of 2021, we also noted a significant increase in terminated and suspended activities. Although this is a seasonal phenomenon, in 2020 and 2019 these proportions were smaller. – Last year is another, after 2020, in which we noted a decrease in the number of CEIDG applications below 900 thousand in total. There were 889 thousand of them (850 thousand a year earlier) compared to 950 thousand in 2019, over 970 thousand. in 2017-2018 and almost 1 million in 2015. In December and throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, entrepreneurs who had concerns that the new regulations would significantly reduce the profitability of their businesses, went to CEIDG to submit applications to suspend and terminate their business. The result is a significant deepening of the downward trend of InfoCredit indices, which has been ongoing since May last year. – The closer to the turn of the year, the greater doubts entrepreneurs have about the profitability of their own business. Especially those for whom every increase in contributions or charges matters in the final analysis. Let us recall, for example: for many larger businesses, the increase in health insurance contributions from several thousand in 2021 to the forecasted several hundred thousand is an insurmountable barrier. This has been visible since May, when the assumptions of the Polish Deal were presented. In our opinion, their decision was also significantly influenced by the rising costs of operations driven by the increase in inflation. There is also growing talk that such an uncertain economic, legal and tax situation may contribute to another significant increase in the size of the grey zone – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. The end of the year usually favors decisions to close or suspend a business. However, the past month was exceptional. 24.3 thousand businesses were established, 26.6 thousand were terminated, 9.1 thousand were resumed, and as many as 41.9 thousand were suspended. The retreat was most visible in the last decade of December – 15.9 thousand businesses were terminated and 27.2 thousand were suspended. It has not been this bad since the last decade of March 2020, when 28.4 thousand businesses were suspended and 3124 were terminated. – It is worth noting that in December 2021 there were significantly more terminations than in March 2020. At that time, entrepreneurs were holding off on decisions, waiting for the situation to develop. So they chose the state of suspension. Now many of them no longer have any doubts that the form of sole proprietorship, in the current conditions, has lost much of its attractiveness – adds Jerzy Wonka. More and more suspensions and terminations Q4 2021 was the worst in three years in terms of applications for termination and suspension of business. In total, 53.5 thousand businesses were terminated and 89.5 thousand were suspended. In the same periods of previous years, the figures were 40.5 thousand and 81.4 thousand (2020) and 48.4 thousand and 89.4 thousand (2019), respectively. The number of applications for termination and suspension of business activity increased from month to month, until the December peak in the last ten days of the month. In October and November, 23 thousand businesses were suspended, in December it was 41.9 thousand. The number of terminated businesses increased from 12.5 thousand in October to 14.6 thousand in November and to 26.6 thousand in December. Much fewer applications than in 2015-2019 In the whole of 2021, there was a slight increase in applications to CEIDG compared to 2020, when the economy suddenly entered a deep recession. In total, there were 889,138 applications, renewals, terminations and suspensions compared to 849,518 in 2020. In previous years, traffic in CEIDG was much higher – 950,359 in 2019, 972,000 in 2018, 979,374 in 2017, and even almost a million in 2015. It is worth noting that in the whole of 2021, there were significantly fewer new and resumed businesses (436.3 thousand) than terminated and suspended businesses (453.9 thousand). This has already happened in previous years, but not in such proportions. Rok Założenie* Zakończenie Zawieszenie Suma 2021 436 318 175 911 277 954 890 183 2020 425 334 142 375 281 809 849 518 2019 470 184 173 320 306 854 950 358 2018 491 647 177 083 303 270 972 000 2017 491 234 178 898 309 242 979 374 2016 465 970 181 053 307 132 954 155 2015 476 948 192 987 311 854 981 789 Suma 3 270 338 1 235 575 2 111 494 6 617 407 * It includes applications for starting and resuming a business. Source: CEIDG How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Inertia in applications to CEIDG
Inertia in applications to CEIDG After a promising first half of the year, Poles were no longer so keen to take matters into their own hands in the third quarter. There is no sign of recovery in CEIDG applications, although the economy is picking up. On the contrary, there is uncertainty. In the first three quarters of 2021, 636,440 thousand applications were submitted, compared to 647 thousand in the same period of 2020, although this was a time of licking wounds after a sudden, deep recession. In the third quarter of 2021, there was a significant increase in business suspensions – to 72.7 thousand from 48 thousand in the first quarter and 54 thousand in the second quarter. There were almost as many suspensions as new businesses. The second quarter of 2021 and the entire first half of the year gave hope for the increasing willingness of Poles to start new businesses. There was a recovery in economic activity and a return to the situation that we observed before the epidemic (i.e. in the second quarter of 2019). The third quarter did not confirm this. Entrepreneurs know how to count, they see the rising costs of doing business. And it’s not just about inflation… In Q3, a total of 73,000 new businesses were established (compared to 79.5 thousand in Q2 and 71.3 thousand in Q1), 39.2 thousand were closed (compared to 39.4 thousand in Q2 and 47.4 in Q1). However, there was a significant increase in suspensions. Resumptions slowed down – after 47 thousand in Q2, they fell to 33.3 thousand (31.1 thousand in Q1). Taking into account Q3 year-on-year, the situation in new and closed businesses has not changed significantly, although the economic situation is much better today than a year ago. There are much fewer resumptions than a year ago (in Q3 2020 there were 37.2 thousand), and much more suspensions than in Q3 2020 (then 57 thousand). – After H1, it might seem that in the following quarters the number of new businesses will grow faster than a year ago, there will be more resumptions and fewer suspensions. The economy has recovered, the labor market is in a very good situation and wages in the corporate sector are growing significantly. It might seem that a good opportunity has appeared on the market for independent specialists to go out on their own and provide services for several entities or simply – to start a business on their own. Meanwhile, we have a surprise – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. In his opinion, this is not just the effect of waiting for the fourth wave of the epidemic and fears of further restrictions. – Today, more than ever before, entrepreneurs must reckon with rising operating costs. We haven’t had such inflation for a long time. The costs of materials are rising significantly, not only for construction or industry. Above all, energy and fuel. We also don’t know what final changes in taxes and levies will apply next year. One thing is certain – businesses are simply afraid that they will bear the cost of the Polish Deal. And here, unfortunately, they are right – adds Jerzy Wonka. What next? InfoCredit’s development director emphasizes that a full-time job offers greater stability than working on your own. Therefore, he does not expect the end of the year to bring any greater activity in CEIDG. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Small business returns to normal
Small business returns to normal InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In the second quarter of 2021, there was a revival in economic activity. Poles established more small businesses than in the first quarter of 2021 and in the second quarter of 2020. There were also more resumptions, fewer closures – according to CEIDG data.In the entire first half of 2021, significantly more applications were submitted to CEIDG than a year ago. 150.8 thousand new businesses were established, compared to 124.2 thousand in the first two quarters of 2020. InfoCredit microenterprise indices after the first half of the year are still close to the highest values this year. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed businesses after H1 was worth +12,378 points (compared to +15,077 points after May 2021 and +15,492 after June 2020), and the indicator describing the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses was worth -4,443 points (+173 points after May 2021 and +11,929 after June 2020). With the improvement in the economy, easing of restrictions and a decrease in COVID-19 cases, the situation in small businesses is constantly improving. Q2 2021 brought a revival in economic activity and a return to the situation that we observed before the epidemic (i.e. in Q2 2019). April, May and June of this year are difficult to compare with the same period of 2020. The past quarter for small businesses was completely different than Q2 2020. – A year ago, we were just learning how to operate during the epidemic. The easing of restrictions took place just before the holiday season. This year, small businesses had a chance to slowly prepare for the season from April. Many small businesses that suspended their operations in March 2020 did not resume them until the end of June. This year, the seasonal suspension of operations was spread over several months and took place gradually right after the third wave of the epidemic – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit’s development director. In the second quarter of 2021, 79.5 thousand business activities were established, 39.4 thousand were closed, 47.1 thousand were resumed, and 54.3 thousand were suspended. In the same period last year, 54.7 thousand were established, 47.4 thousand were closed, 31.1 thousand were resumed, and 61.3 thousand were suspended. The situation is similar in the entire first half of 2021. 150.8 thousand businesses were established (124.2 thousand in the first half of 2020), 86.8 thousand were closed (compared to 70.2 thousand), 78.2 thousand were resumed (compared to 99 thousand), and 115.5 thousand were suspended (compared to 142.9 thousand). The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of new to closed businesses, rose to its highest value this year in May (+15,077), also remaining quite high after June (+12,378 points). The indicator describing the ratio of resumptions to suspensions in May came out positive to 179 points (which does not happen often, as it has usually been negative for years), to fall to -4443 points after June. – This is not a worrying phenomenon. Usually, before the holidays, at the end of June, business activities are suspended seasonally by entrepreneurs and specialists who want to take advantage of their vacations and at the same time reduce the burdens associated with running a business – adds Jerzy Wonka. What can we expect in the coming months? – The economic situation in the industry is great, wages are growing, the situation on the labor market is also quite good. This should favor small businesses that cooperate with large ones, and specialists who settle accounts with their clients while running their business. On the other hand – we do not know how quickly we will have to face the fourth wave of infections. And what restrictions we will have to deal with. Because the fact that another wave will occur is obvious given the current slowdown in vaccinations – adds the InfoCredit Development Director. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl