The largest outflow from JDG in history
The largest outflow from JDG in history InfoCredit Microentrepreneurship Index Nearly 388,000 sole proprietorships (SMEs) were suspended in 2025. Another record of weakness was set – the fourth in a row. In 2024, we recorded 375,700 suspensions. 196,700 SMEs were closed, with only 2023 seeing a worse situation. At the end of last year, the negative trend accelerated. Even after November, it seemed that further records would not be broken. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index fell to -46.76 thousand points quarterly after December, a level never seen before. Monthly, the index is seeking a bottom, meaning it’s close to the levels seen when the pandemic broke out or when the full-scale war in Ukraine began. This means that the basic form of entrepreneurship in Poland, i.e. self-employed individuals, is experiencing the greatest crisis in its history. The end of last year saw a significant shift away from self-employed workers (JDG). In the last three days of December alone, nearly 15,000 businesses were suspended, and nearly 10,500 were closed. For comparison, 2,933 new JDGs were registered during that time. Throughout December, 64,600 businesses were suspended and closed, while 33,700 were opened and reopened. This hasn’t happened yet, resulting in further lows in the JDG InfoCredit index. What happened at the end of last year is certainly related to the confusion that accompanied attempts to regulate the labor market. As a reminder, at the beginning of December, the prevailing message was that officials from the National Labor Inspectorate would be able to administratively reclassify a B2B or civil law contract as a full-time job if the actual method of service provision was consistent with an employment relationship. These powers were gradually limited. Initially, such decisions were to be enforced immediately. Later, this procedure was relaxed, giving the parties room to adjust their cooperation model. In any case, until the end of last year, the message was clear: apparent self-employment, meaning, for example, one self-employed person (JDG) for one client, was risky. This could have influenced the decisions of those working in this mode. The market reacted not to the final shape of the regulations, but to the uncertainty and lack of a clear direction for change. The new year brought a turnaround. The draft bill amending the Act on the National Labor Inspectorate and certain other acts, adopted on December 4th by the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers, was met with strong criticism from the Prime Minister. He believed that officials were gaining too much power. On January 28th, Money.pl obtained details of the new proposal, developed by the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy and the Ministry of Justice. The inspector will still be able to issue an administrative decision to transform disputed contracts, but it will be immediately appealable to the court (instead of first to the Chief Labor Inspector). In such a case, its execution will be suspended until a final ruling is issued. This is only the beginning of the legislative process, but both ministries are pressing for time. The provisions strengthening the role of the National Labor Inspectorate are one of the milestones of the National Labor Inspectorate (KPO). This means there isn’t much time to work on them. Employers will be pressured to restructure contentious B2B contracts, and the junk contracts will remain. The situation on the labor market further complicates matters. Unemployment rose to 5.7% in December 2025 (5.1% the year before). Year-on-year, the number of registered unemployed increased by 101,700. The dynamics of new registrations are also increasingly alarming – 93,600 people were granted unemployment status in December, which, given the persistently high level of layoffs, demonstrates a steady influx of job seekers. 2025 also proved to be a record year for collective layoffs – over 97,600 were reported to labor offices, the highest number since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and almost three times as many as in 2024. At the same time, there is a stark disproportion between the number of suspended and terminated self-employed workers in December 2025 and the number of new and reopened businesses (64,600 vs. 33,700). This has not yet translated directly into unemployment statistics – most people leaving self-employed workers have alternative sources of income or other career plans. However, the scale of these movements demonstrates a profound realignment in the labor market and entrepreneurship. On the other hand, the market is operating under growing regulatory and social pressure related to attempts to “civilize” forms of employment and limit bogus self-employment. This is changing the calculations for both employees and employers. What does this mean for the self-employed worker market in the coming quarters? InfoCredit Forecasts 1. The outflow of “full-time” self-employment will slow, but not stop. The government’s withdrawal from the administrative transformation of contracts by the National Labor Inspectorate (PIP) reduces regulatory pressure but does not address the main problem: uncertainty. Some people will remain with self-employed individuals (DDs), but a business model that effectively resembles a full-time position will gradually lose its raison d’être. 2. The DDs market will undergo another year of selection. After a record-breaking 2025, the pace of business closures and suspensions may slow, but the overall number of DDs will remain under pressure. Companies established primarily for cost reasons will disappear from the market, while businesses with a viable business model have a chance to survive. 3. The structure of DDs will change faster than their number. The share of design and specialist companies (IT, consulting, engineering, creative) will increase, while self-employment in simple, subordinated roles that are easily replaced by employment or automation will decrease. 4. The “one sole proprietorship – one client” model will remain an area of increased risk. Even with a relaxation of legislative announcements, regulatory uncertainty and regulatory practices will reward effective business independence. Entrepreneurs will be more likely to build client portfolios or change the scope of their cooperation. 5. The InfoCredit JDG Index will remain negative, but the scale of declines may diminish. After a historically weak
InfoCredit Index
InfoCredit Index The JDG market is slowing down, but the full-time job is winning The sole proprietorship (SME) market in Poland is changing. We are entering a period in which sole proprietorships will primarily be run by those who genuinely want to run a business, not those who have previously been forced into it by the system. Data for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 show that SMEs continue to shrink. In the third quarter of 2025, the number of new and reopened businesses (118,000) was significantly lower than the sum of suspensions and closures (148,000), which translated into a negative value of the InfoCredit SME index of -30,000 points. In the fourth quarter (through November), the situation remained similar: positive activity reached 76,800 and negative activity reached 92,700, implying an index value of -15,800. Remember, these are post-November data. The end of December saw a complete reversal and a significant spike in suspensions. Therefore, the index value at the end of the year could be much lower. The trend is clear – more people are abandoning their businesses than starting them. And this trend is slowly deepening. Even one-off, seasonal, strong positive spikes are no longer present. For example, after the second quarter of 2022, the JDG IC index, calculated quarterly, was worth over 17,000 points (meaning 17,000 more new and reopened businesses than closed and suspended businesses). Since then, it has been showing a seasonal increase, slightly above 0. This all coincides with an exceptionally good situation on the labor market. Unemployment has remained low and stable for months (May: 5.0%, June: 5.1%, July: 5.4%, August: 5.5%, September–October: 5.6%). With near-full employment, full-time employment becomes more attractive than the B2B model: it offers stability, lower risk, and no need to finance ongoing contributions. For many people working with a single client, it’s a return to a simple choice: “full-time or nothing.” Additionally, a regulatory factor is looming. New powers for the National Labor Inspectorate, planned for 2026, will allow inspectors to administratively reclassify B2B or civil law contracts as full-time employment contracts if the actual method of service provision corresponds to an employment relationship. Although the amendments will no longer result in immediate enforcement, and the parties will have room to adjust their cooperation model, for many companies it is a signal that false self-employment is risky. All this indicates a growing advantage of full-time employment over B2B, particularly in industries where self-employment has served as a substitute for an employment contract. In 2026, we can expect a further decline in the number of self-employed individuals (SDUs) based on 1:1 collaboration with the employer and a gradual reshaping of the market towards companies providing services to several or many clients. What does this mean from the perspective of different groups? Entrepreneurs and micro-entrepreneurs – Greater uncertainty regarding B2B cooperation. It will be necessary to clearly document an employee’s independence or redesign their job descriptions.– Rising costs of recruiting specialists. Higher-skilled individuals, welcomed by employers, will more often prefer full-time employment.– The need for more flexible business models. This could include combining full-time positions with performance-based contracts, project collaboration, and micro-enterprise consortia.– Greater selectivity in starting a business. Self-employed individuals will primarily start businesses with a genuine desire to run a business, rather than full-time B2B employees. People working on self-employed/B2B contracts – Lower profitability of self-employment in a 1:1 relationship with an employer.– Higher risk of PIP inspections and the need to adapt the work model.– The attractiveness of full-time employment is growing. Stability, predictability, vacation time, and ZUS contributions are on the employer’s side.– For IT specialists and creative industries, the B2B model will remain popular, but more task-based, flexible, and with multiple clients. InfoCredit Forecasts What could change in the self-employed (JDG) market in 2026? – A further decline in the number of self-employed (JDG), formerly “full-time” employees. National Labor Inspectorate (PIP) regulations and low unemployment will drive businesses operating solely to reduce employer costs and increase net income out of the market.– The total number of self-employed (JDG) may decline, but the number of active companies actually operating will remain stable.– A shift in the structure of the JDG market. There will be more service companies operating on a project-based basis (IT, consulting, creative, engineering), and fewer self-employed individuals in logistics, sales, administration, and basic services.– The growing importance of relationships and collaboration with multiple clients. The “one company, one client” model will be subject to the risk of audits. Entrepreneurs will begin to build client portfolios to realistically justify their operations.– The trend will continue. Unless new tax relief or simplifications are introduced, the InfoCredit index will remain negative in 2026, though likely at a slower rate of decline than in 2025. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
JDG: we rather collapse than expand
JDG: we rather collapse than expand Times are changing, the debate over health insurance premiums has been raging for over 20 months, and the statistics remain weak. In the first half of this year, trends in sole proprietorships (SMEs) remained unchanged. The data are even worse than in recent years. SMEs continue to shrink rather than expand. In the first half of 2025, 146,975 new businesses were registered in Poland, and 99,369 were reopened. However, as many as 176,231 self-employed entities were suspended, and 98,218 were closed. Therefore, closed and suspended businesses still outnumber new and reopened businesses (274,449 vs. 246,344). The second quarter of this year was, as usual, better than the first. This is due to seasonality – in the spring, businesses open and resume tourism-related businesses. In April, May, and June, coastal municipalities are usually among the leading economically “recovering” communities. After June, the quarterly InfoCredit index rose to -374 points from -27,731 points after the first quarter of 2025 (when its value is above 0, it means that more businesses were opened and reopened than suspended and closed). The problem is that last year at this time, the index was worth +1,440 points. The situation is getting worse year by year. In the first quarter of this year, the data were also worse than in the same period of 2024. 118,822 self-employed units (UDGs) were reopened and established, and 146,553 were closed and established, compared to 120,599 and 147,418 a year earlier. The quarterly calculated IC index was therefore worth -27,731 points (after Q1 2024, it was -26,819 points). The reasons remain the same – rising business costs, regulatory uncertainty, and the decline in the profitability of small businesses. Given the current labor market, full-time employment is becoming more attractive than self-employment. Furthermore, in May, the chance for relief for entrepreneurs was blocked – the president vetoed the bill lowering health insurance contributions. For many sole proprietors, this signals that real changes are unlikely for now. This is especially true given that there was no consensus on a contribution reduction, even at dinner. The disturbing trend is even more evident in the monthly InfoCredit index. After a slight recovery in March, April, and May, the index declined again in June. At the end of June 2025, it stood at -6,911 points, compared to -5,433 points a year earlier. “The data clearly shows that, unfortunately, the high number of business suspensions and closures continues. Significantly, significant increases in this area occurred not in 2020 or 2021, when we were faced with restrictions resulting from the pandemic, but later – essentially from 2022, i.e., during the era of new tax rules established by the infamous Polish Deal and during a period of – at least temporarily – very high inflation,” says Jakub Bińkowski, board member of the Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers. According to Jakub Bińkowski, the deteriorating condition of the smallest businesses is caused by growing cost pressure – generated by increases in contributions (health insurance contributions after the Polish Deal, the permanent mechanism for indexing ZUS contributions), as well as the rising costs of both semi-finished products, products, and raw materials used to run the business, as well as employment (dynamic wage growth, further stimulated by the rapidly rising minimum wage until 2024). In this context, the presidential veto of the government’s proposed reduction in healthcare contributions for businesses was indeed disappointing. “Entrepreneurs are not responsible for the underfunding of the healthcare system – it seems this was forgotten when deciding on the fate of that bill,” summarizes a board member of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. How We Calculate the InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and reopened businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were started and reopened than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index shows values below zero, it indicates a retreat from this form of economic activity. The further the index falls, the more small businesses are going out of business (permanently or temporarily). We publish the index quarterly (after each quarter) and monthly. For individual municipalities, the index value is calculated per 1,000 inhabitants. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
January was a bit disappointing
January was a bit disappointing JDG InfoCredit Index After a slight thaw in the last quarter of last year in sole proprietorships (SMEs), when the predominance of suspended and closed businesses over new and reopened businesses began to diminish, we expected a warmer January 2025. It was, but outside. The data showed a chill again. In January, 58,595 businesses were suspended and closed. There were 38,632 new and reopened businesses. The InfoCredit index is therefore still well below zero at -19,963 points. January 2025 was similarly weak to last year (the index was then worth -21,967 points) and weaker than January 2023 (-17,202 points). Admittedly, it’s been worse. After the first month of 2022, our index reached its January low (-29,866 points). However, this was the first year of the Polish Deal and a mass retreat from business activity. The end and beginning of the year always bring a seasonal preponderance of suspended and closed businesses over new and reopened ones. Our index hasn’t yet turned positive at the beginning of the year. However, there have been times when the data was much better than today, such as in 2019 and 2020 (-4,768 points and -9,870 points, respectively). But that was in the previous era – before the pandemic and everything that happened since. There’s no breakthrough, then. Economic recovery is visible on the horizon. Forecasts for this year even call for GDP growth of up to 4%, compared to 2.9% last year, according to preliminary data. Funds from the National Operational Programme (KPO) are flowing for investments. So far, this hasn’t translated into a recovery in economic activity or the confidence of micro-entrepreneurs. Perhaps they need more evidence of an economic recovery? These are slowly trickling in. Earlier this week, we learned that consumers were more willing to spend their money in January – retail sales unexpectedly increased by 4.8% year-on-year. The automotive sector was most affected (+21.9%) and furniture, consumer electronics, and household appliances (+13.6%). Clothing saw growth of almost 9%. What’s next? February (until February 21st) looks promising, better than in recent years. There’s a good chance the IC index will rise after February, from its current level of around -20,000 points to around -4,000. Perhaps we’ll even see a balance? Everything depends on the last week, as that’s when CEIDG typically sees the highest activity. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
We are bouncing back from the December bottom
We are bouncing back from the December bottom JDG InfoCredit Index Throughout 2024, 375,700 sole proprietorships (SMEs) were suspended. We’ve set a record again – for the third time in a row. In 2023, we recorded 372,500 suspensions. The good news is that the negative trend slowed somewhat in the fourth quarter of last year. After the third quarter, we warned that suspensions could reach nearly 400,000. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index has rebounded slightly quarter-on-quarter. It remains significantly negative, but significantly higher than after the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2022. The monthly IC index is similar. At the end of December, it was higher than a year ago and after 2022. Is this the end of the significant advantage of suspended and closed businesses over new and reopened ones, which emerged after the announcements of the Polish Deal? We’ll see. One thing is certain: relief for micro-entrepreneurs is starting to take effect. Or are we slowly becoming accustomed to the challenging conditions of running a business? In October, we were deeply concerned. We wrote then that in the third quarter of last year alone, “103,300 business activities were suspended. That’s 6,718 more than in the same period in 2023, which was already record low.” Everything indicated that the quarterly and monthly IC Index could bottom out. This did not happen. Why? In the fourth quarter of 2024, 93,300 businesses were suspended – 10,000 fewer than in the third quarter and 9,100 fewer than a year earlier. There were also significantly fewer closed sole proprietorships (JDGs) than a year earlier (47,100 vs. 53,300). Business resumptions increased (41,300 vs. 38,000). There were only slightly fewer new businesses than a year ago (67,400 vs. 69,900). This meant that the indices remained negative after the fourth quarter, but significantly moved away from the seasonal bottom. December 2024 was significantly better for sole proprietors (JDG) than in recent years. 32,000 businesses were suspended, compared to 37,800 the previous year. 19,700 businesses were closed, compared to 20,400. Does this mean that the promised and implemented tax relief for micro-entrepreneurs is starting to influence their moods and decisions? Already at the end of last year, it was possible to take advantage of the ZUS (Social Insurance Institution) tax holiday. Health insurance contributions on revenues from the sale of fixed assets were abolished. As of January 1st, the minimum health insurance contribution base was reduced to 75% of the minimum wage. This translates into savings for low-income entrepreneurs. In addition, there are preferential ZUS contributions (new entrepreneurs or those who have completed their start-up tax relief can continue paying them for 24 months). Piotr Kuczyński, Chief Analyst at DI Xelion, believes that the tax relief may have influenced entrepreneurs’ decisions at the end of the year. But that’s not all. “For lower-income sole proprietors (SDUs), such relief is important. The outlook for our economy could also have a significant impact on everyone’s decisions. We expect a recovery this year, thanks in part to PLN 120 billion in investments from the National Operational Programme (KPO) and the Cohesion Fund. Of course, this money will flow mainly to large companies, but where small giants benefit, they can also benefit. The cost situation has stabilized. Average annual inflation of 3.6%, or even 5%, recorded in December isn’t a disaster. So, if I were to open a business, this is a good time. If I had a choice between suspending or not, I wouldn’t. The geopolitical situation remains complicated, but… we’ve been living with this for three years,” says Piotr Kuczyński. How we calculate the InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and reopened businesses to closed and suspended businesses. A positive index means that more businesses were started and reopened than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. A negative index value indicates a retreat from this form of economic activity. The further the index falls, the more small businesses are going out of business (permanently or temporarily). We publish the index quarterly (after each quarter) and monthly. For individual municipalities, the index value is calculated per 1,000 inhabitants. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
Micro-entrepreneurs Under Pressure
Micro-entrepreneurs Under Pressure JDG InfoCredit Index In Q3 2024, 103.3 thousand businesses were suspended. This is 6718 more than in the same period of 2023, which was already record-low. In Q3 2024, Poles also started fewer businesses than last year and closed more. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index in quarterly terms after September has never been so low. In monthly terms as well. If Q4 of this year is as weak for businesses as last year, another record of weakness in the statistics of sole proprietorships will be broken. From January to September 2024, 221.4 thousand sole proprietorships (SMEs) were started in Poland, 149.4 thousand were resumed, 282.4 thousand were suspended and 141.9 thousand were closed. In total, there were as many as 53.5 thousand more suspended and closed businesses. A year ago, this advantage was smaller (there were 43.5 thousand more suspended and closed businesses). This is the effect of the weak third quarter and September of this year. We recorded 149.5 thousand established and closed businesses compared to 117.4 thousand new and renewed businesses. The InfoCredit index calculated quarterly fell to -32,067 points compared to -19,680 a year earlier. Our monthly indicator dropped to -7,566 points compared to -3,072 points a year earlier. The InfoCredit index has not been this low at this time since we started counting it. Costs, costs, costs… There is no indication that this trend will reverse in the fourth quarter. The advantage of suspended and closed JDGs has been growing practically from quarter to quarter for years. Similarly to the costs of running a business in Poland. The milestone was the announcement of the Polish deal. It started with a slump at the end of 2021, when we noted a significant increase in the number of businesses being closed and suspended, because entrepreneurs did not like the mess and ambiguity associated with the Polish Deal. And then the trend only accelerated, along with inflation and the increasing burdens on entrepreneurs. Seasonality will hit the statistics In January, we warned that in 2023, 372.5 thousand businesses were suspended (a record) and 198.2 thousand businesses were closed (the most since 2014). These records may be broken again. In Q4, we have been recording the most suspended and closed businesses for years. Last year, 102.5 thousand self-employed entities were suspended during this period (compared to 97.7 thousand in Q4 2022). In other words, about 100 thousand suspensions will be enough to break the record. Micro-entrepreneurs will continue to be under pressure in the coming months. The ZUS holiday (applications can be submitted from November 1) will not change much. This is a one-time relief, once a year. In addition, not everyone will be able to take advantage of it. Small businesses are waiting primarily for changes in the rules for calculating health insurance contributions. The retreat from the seaside continues In September, the largest number of suspended businesses was still recorded in coastal municipalities. Small businesses closed the fastest, per 1,000 residents, in Jastarnia, Krynica Morska, Rewal, Łeba and Władysławowo. Why per 1,000? Because not every municipality is the same. It is difficult to compare, for example, Jastarnia, which has approx. 2,600 permanent residents, with Władysławowo (over 10,000) or Zakopane (27.3 thousand). IC Index – ranking by municipality after September Gmina Woj. Indeks IC w pkt Indeks IC w pkt/1000 Jastarnia pomorskie -372 -106,8 Krynica Morska pomorskie -96 -82,4 Rewal zach. -291 -81,0 Łeba pomorskie -229 -75,7 Władysławowo pomorskie -1073 -75,0 Dziwnów zach. -267 -75,0 Mielno zach. -262 -56,6 Ustronie Morskie zach. -204 -54,5 Międzyzdroje zach. -199 -33,0 Hel (miejska) pomorskie -79 -28,4 Let us recall – after June Jastarnia was the clear leader in terms of new and renewed JDG (after May it was in the lead). The index for this commune exceeded +50 points at that time, which meant that one business per 20 residents was established or suspended! Now – one business per 10 residents was suspended or closed! This shows that the greatest seasonality in JDG is recorded in typical tourist towns, most in seaside resorts. The top ten communes with the highest drop in the IC Index are only those from Pomerania and West Pomerania. There are 2477 communes in Poland. We monitor all of them. Do you want to know what is happening in your province, district, commune? Contact us: infocredit@infocredit.pl or media@infocredit.pl. We invite you. How do we calculate the InfoCredit business activity index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. In the case of individual communes, we calculate the index value per 1,000 residents. Previous news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
The most seasonal coastal municipalities
The most seasonal coastal municipalities JDG InfoCredit Index Rewal, Mielno, Władysławowo, Łeba, Krynica Morska – these are the five communes that fell into seasonal lethargy the fastest when it comes to economic activity. These are typical tourist, seasonal, seaside towns that come to life in May and June, only to fall into autumn and winter sleep in August and September. The InfoCredit economic activity index at the end of August for Rewal fell to -45.13 points. For Mielno to -28.73 points, Władysławowo to -22.45 points, Łeba to -16.87 points, and for Krynica Morska to -13.73 points. Our index describes the ratio of new and resumed activities to suspended and closed ones, per 1,000 residents. If it has a positive value, it means that there are more new and resumed activities. If it is negative, more are suspended and closed. What does it mean when the index drops to -50 points? That in a given commune 1 business per 20 inhabitants was closed or suspended. Interestingly, in our ranking after May, Krynica Morska was the leader (+40.07 points), Rewal was in 3rd place and Władysławowo in 5th. After June, the leaders were as follows – Jastarnia (+52.56 points), Rewal, Władysławowo, Mielno, Krynica Morska. The top ten included only coastal communes. And it can be said that it is in these communes that economic activities are the most seasonal. In total, in August, 22.46 thousand businesses were established in Poland, 13.55 thousand were resumed, 32.82 were suspended, and 12.26 thousand were closed. The IC index for the entire country after August was therefore -9,073. It is slightly higher than a year ago, when it was worth -11,233 points. What is happening in September? Until 18.09, nationwide, suspended and closed businesses still outweigh new and reopened ones. This is a seasonal phenomenon. We will be able to say more after the end of Q3, when full data will be available. We are all now anxiously looking at the provinces affected by the flood. For now, it is too early to talk about the impact of the disaster on economic activities in the Lower Silesian province. In the Kłodzko district, 21 applications for suspension have been submitted since 16 September, and in the Nysa district, 8. Residents and entrepreneurs are estimating losses and removing the effects of the flood. In fact, it is still difficult to handle matters there when offices have been flooded, and there are problems with energy and communication. We will present statistics from the regions affected by the disaster in October. There are 2,477 communes in Poland. We monitor all of them. Do you want to know what is happening in your province, district, commune? Contact us: infocredit@infocredit.pl or media@infocredit.pl . We invite you. How do we calculate the InfoCredit business activity index? Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. In the case of individual communes, we calculate the index value per 1,000 residents. Previous news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Microbusiness stagnation
Microbusiness stagnation InfoCredit Business Activity Index In the second quarter of this year, there are no changes in economic activities: there is no point in talking about a revival. The InfoCredit micro-entrepreneurship index calculated quarterly after Q2 2024 has slightly turned positive, but it is much lower than a year ago. After a rather promising May, June brought us back down to earth. In the last month of the second quarter, those closing and suspending economic activities once again had a big advantage. The index calculated monthly is in the red, lower than a year ago. The InfoCredit indices continue to maintain cyclical fluctuations, but they are sinking lower and lower from year to year. There are no changes in economic activities. We are still stuck in stagnation. In the second quarter of this year, 132.7 thousand economic activities were established and resumed (131.3 thousand were closed and suspended), which could be perceived positively. The InfoCredit index calculated quarterly therefore turned positive (+1440 points). The problem is that in the same period last year our index was worth +3889 points. And it is falling from year to year. The second quarter has historically been usually good for opening and resuming business activities. We were making up for losses after a seasonally weaker end and beginning of the year. Two years ago, the InfoCredit index was worth +16,784 points, three years ago +33,989 points, and four years ago as much as +47,601 points. However, 2020 was a special year. After the collapse and panicky suspension in March 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic and the shock associated with restrictions), small businesses, especially tourist businesses, resumed their operations en masse before the holidays. After promising March, April and May, when new and resuming businesses had an advantage over those being closed and suspended, one could have hoped that the trend would reverse. However, June was a big disappointment. The InfoCredit index calculated monthly in the last month of the first half of the year plunged to -5433 points. It is much lower than a year ago (it was also weak then, but the index was worth -3648 points). And we have a similar situation as in quarterly terms. Two years ago, after June 2022, the index was worth +3,575 points, after H1 2021 it was +9,003 points, and after June 2020 even 27,920 points. The graphs look very worrying. They maintain cyclical changes, but from year to year they sink lower and lower. Everything indicates that nothing will change this trend for now. Reliefs that were supposed to bring respite to small entrepreneurs (like holidays from ZUS) are still looming somewhere on the horizon). By the way, we also tracked what happened in June in typically tourist communes. It happened. More on that soon. How we calculate the InfoCredit business activity index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Relief for micro-enterprises on the horizon
Relief for micro-enterprises on the horizon InfoCredit Business Activity Index In the first quarter of this year, 147.4 thousand businesses were closed and suspended, and 120.6 thousand were opened and resumed.The InfoCredit micro-entrepreneurship index calculated quarterly is worth -26.8 thousand points, more or less the same as a year ago. After a rather weak January and February, the situation improved slightly in March. The IC index calculated monthly came out positive. It is higher than a year ago. What next? It depends on many factors. First of all, on the economic situation, but mainly on the costs of running a business. No changes in business activities. The first quarter did not bring any breakthrough despite the announcements of certain reliefs for micro-entrepreneurs. This means that we still closed and suspended more businesses than we opened and resumed. The improvement in the situation in March is a good sign. Whether this was just a one-off slight rebound or maybe something more, we will find out in the coming months. If we take into account the entire first quarter, there is no sign of any recovery so far. There are still significantly more businesses being closed and suspended than new and reopened businesses. The IC index after the first quarter of 2024 is worth about as much as after the first quarter of 2023, i.e. -26.8 thousand points compared to -27.7 thousand points a year ago. The situation improved slightly in March. The IC index calculated monthly grew each month (-22 thousand points in January 2024, -5.94 thousand in February and +1.1 points in March). It is currently higher than a year ago. However, this is not a significant jump that could indicate a change in mood among small entrepreneurs. After March 2023, it was worth -925 points. The rising costs of operating from year to year certainly do not improve moods. The situation of small entrepreneurs and self-employed, especially those who settle on a scale, could be significantly improved by increasing the tax-free amount to PLN 60 thousand. PLN. However, this decision is moving away rather than getting closer. Currently, it is looming somewhere on the horizon. It is certain that this will not be the year. And will it be 2025? That remains to be seen. A certain relief may be the ZUS holiday. We already know that a micro-entrepreneur will be able to choose any month once a year in which they will not have to pay ZUS, Labor Fund and Solidarity Fund contributions. And this regardless of the form of settlement. Better safe than sorry… Can the ZUS holiday affect the growth of new and suspended businesses? We will find out in the coming quarters. One thing is certain. Those who carry out activities on behalf of their former employers will not be able to take advantage of the relief. Therefore, pushing them into self-employment will not affect the statistics for now. Another thing that weighs heavily on entrepreneurs running a business is the non-deductible health insurance contribution. And certainly the absurdity of paying this contribution in the event of selling a car. The Polish order has made the income from the sale of a fixed asset part of the basis for calculating the contribution. This absurdity is to disappear. We keep our fingers crossed. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Microbusiness says: pass
Microbusiness says: pass InfoCredit Business Activity Index In 2023, 372.5 thousand businesses were suspended. This is definitely more than in 2022, which was already a record low. Last year, as many as 198.2 thousand businesses were closed – the most since 2014. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index fell to its lowest point on a quarterly basis since we started counting it (January 2018).In total, there were almost 571 thousand suspended and closed businesses in 2023, and 479.5 thousand new and resumed businesses. Exactly what we expected happened. And we are not proud of it. In October, we wrote that if Polish micro-entrepreneurs were to suspend their businesses at the same pace as they had been doing up until September, the record would be broken. And it would be broken by a lot. And it was broken. In 2023, 372.5 thousand businesses were suspended. A year earlier, 347.4 thousand. The fact that 198.2 thousand businesses were closed is also very worrying. This is the worst result since 2014. The advantage of suspended and closed businesses over new and reopened businesses has increased even more. The result – the InfoCredit index, calculated quarterly, is the lowest in history. What’s going on? Nothing new. The cost of running a business on your own has been constantly growing for over 2 years. Because that’s how long we’ve been dealing with high inflation. Let’s recall – we had this problem in Poland long before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In January 2022, inflation was 9.2 percent y/y (minimum wage in 2022 was PLN 3,010 gross, hourly rate 19.70). And then it only got more expensive. Price increases mean higher business costs, greater employee pressure for pay rises (which is hardly surprising given the record low unemployment rate), an increase in the minimum wage and other wages. And consequently, an increase in ZUS contributions and burdens on businesses. In the meantime, entrepreneurs (and not only them) received a gift in the form of the Polish Deal (we deliberately write with a small one), i.e. an additional burden in the form of a non-deductible health insurance contribution. The disturbing trend of an increase in suspended and closed businesses began in mid-2021, right after the announcement of the assumptions of the Polish Deal. And it accelerated significantly after the Polish Deal was implemented. What now? We don’t have good news. Entrepreneurs welcomed the new year, and with it, more burdens. The ZUS contribution is now PLN 1,600.27 compared to PLN 1,418.48 in 2023. Can’t you do it alone? Do you employ? The minimum wage is already PLN 4,242 gross, and it was PLN 3,600 in 2023 in the second half of the year. The hourly rate is increasing from PLN 23.5 to PLN 27.7. Reliefs? For now, it’s vague. The tax-free amount of PLN 60,000 is not possible for now. ZUS vacation for a month? The bill is there, it is to be submitted to the Sejm by March. A lot can still happen in business until March. For now, one thing is certain – sole proprietorship is becoming less and less attractive compared to… full-time employment. Given the situation on the labor market. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl