Micro-entrepreneurs Under Pressure
Micro-entrepreneurs Under Pressure JDG InfoCredit Index In Q3 2024, 103.3 thousand businesses were suspended. This is 6718 more than in the same period of 2023, which was already record-low. In Q3 2024, Poles also started fewer businesses than last year and closed more. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index in quarterly terms after September has never been so low. In monthly terms as well. If Q4 of this year is as weak for businesses as last year, another record of weakness in the statistics of sole proprietorships will be broken. From January to September 2024, 221.4 thousand sole proprietorships (SMEs) were started in Poland, 149.4 thousand were resumed, 282.4 thousand were suspended and 141.9 thousand were closed. In total, there were as many as 53.5 thousand more suspended and closed businesses. A year ago, this advantage was smaller (there were 43.5 thousand more suspended and closed businesses). This is the effect of the weak third quarter and September of this year. We recorded 149.5 thousand established and closed businesses compared to 117.4 thousand new and renewed businesses. The InfoCredit index calculated quarterly fell to -32,067 points compared to -19,680 a year earlier. Our monthly indicator dropped to -7,566 points compared to -3,072 points a year earlier. The InfoCredit index has not been this low at this time since we started counting it. Costs, costs, costs… There is no indication that this trend will reverse in the fourth quarter. The advantage of suspended and closed JDGs has been growing practically from quarter to quarter for years. Similarly to the costs of running a business in Poland. The milestone was the announcement of the Polish deal. It started with a slump at the end of 2021, when we noted a significant increase in the number of businesses being closed and suspended, because entrepreneurs did not like the mess and ambiguity associated with the Polish Deal. And then the trend only accelerated, along with inflation and the increasing burdens on entrepreneurs. Seasonality will hit the statistics In January, we warned that in 2023, 372.5 thousand businesses were suspended (a record) and 198.2 thousand businesses were closed (the most since 2014). These records may be broken again. In Q4, we have been recording the most suspended and closed businesses for years. Last year, 102.5 thousand self-employed entities were suspended during this period (compared to 97.7 thousand in Q4 2022). In other words, about 100 thousand suspensions will be enough to break the record. Micro-entrepreneurs will continue to be under pressure in the coming months. The ZUS holiday (applications can be submitted from November 1) will not change much. This is a one-time relief, once a year. In addition, not everyone will be able to take advantage of it. Small businesses are waiting primarily for changes in the rules for calculating health insurance contributions. The retreat from the seaside continues In September, the largest number of suspended businesses was still recorded in coastal municipalities. Small businesses closed the fastest, per 1,000 residents, in Jastarnia, Krynica Morska, Rewal, Łeba and Władysławowo. Why per 1,000? Because not every municipality is the same. It is difficult to compare, for example, Jastarnia, which has approx. 2,600 permanent residents, with Władysławowo (over 10,000) or Zakopane (27.3 thousand). IC Index – ranking by municipality after September Gmina Woj. Indeks IC w pkt Indeks IC w pkt/1000 Jastarnia pomorskie -372 -106,8 Krynica Morska pomorskie -96 -82,4 Rewal zach. -291 -81,0 Łeba pomorskie -229 -75,7 Władysławowo pomorskie -1073 -75,0 Dziwnów zach. -267 -75,0 Mielno zach. -262 -56,6 Ustronie Morskie zach. -204 -54,5 Międzyzdroje zach. -199 -33,0 Hel (miejska) pomorskie -79 -28,4 Let us recall – after June Jastarnia was the clear leader in terms of new and renewed JDG (after May it was in the lead). The index for this commune exceeded +50 points at that time, which meant that one business per 20 residents was established or suspended! Now – one business per 10 residents was suspended or closed! This shows that the greatest seasonality in JDG is recorded in typical tourist towns, most in seaside resorts. The top ten communes with the highest drop in the IC Index are only those from Pomerania and West Pomerania. There are 2477 communes in Poland. We monitor all of them. Do you want to know what is happening in your province, district, commune? Contact us: infocredit@infocredit.pl or media@infocredit.pl. We invite you. How do we calculate the InfoCredit business activity index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. In the case of individual communes, we calculate the index value per 1,000 residents. Previous news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
The most seasonal coastal municipalities
The most seasonal coastal municipalities JDG InfoCredit Index Rewal, Mielno, Władysławowo, Łeba, Krynica Morska – these are the five communes that fell into seasonal lethargy the fastest when it comes to economic activity. These are typical tourist, seasonal, seaside towns that come to life in May and June, only to fall into autumn and winter sleep in August and September. The InfoCredit economic activity index at the end of August for Rewal fell to -45.13 points. For Mielno to -28.73 points, Władysławowo to -22.45 points, Łeba to -16.87 points, and for Krynica Morska to -13.73 points. Our index describes the ratio of new and resumed activities to suspended and closed ones, per 1,000 residents. If it has a positive value, it means that there are more new and resumed activities. If it is negative, more are suspended and closed. What does it mean when the index drops to -50 points? That in a given commune 1 business per 20 inhabitants was closed or suspended. Interestingly, in our ranking after May, Krynica Morska was the leader (+40.07 points), Rewal was in 3rd place and Władysławowo in 5th. After June, the leaders were as follows – Jastarnia (+52.56 points), Rewal, Władysławowo, Mielno, Krynica Morska. The top ten included only coastal communes. And it can be said that it is in these communes that economic activities are the most seasonal. In total, in August, 22.46 thousand businesses were established in Poland, 13.55 thousand were resumed, 32.82 were suspended, and 12.26 thousand were closed. The IC index for the entire country after August was therefore -9,073. It is slightly higher than a year ago, when it was worth -11,233 points. What is happening in September? Until 18.09, nationwide, suspended and closed businesses still outweigh new and reopened ones. This is a seasonal phenomenon. We will be able to say more after the end of Q3, when full data will be available. We are all now anxiously looking at the provinces affected by the flood. For now, it is too early to talk about the impact of the disaster on economic activities in the Lower Silesian province. In the Kłodzko district, 21 applications for suspension have been submitted since 16 September, and in the Nysa district, 8. Residents and entrepreneurs are estimating losses and removing the effects of the flood. In fact, it is still difficult to handle matters there when offices have been flooded, and there are problems with energy and communication. We will present statistics from the regions affected by the disaster in October. There are 2,477 communes in Poland. We monitor all of them. Do you want to know what is happening in your province, district, commune? Contact us: infocredit@infocredit.pl or media@infocredit.pl . We invite you. How do we calculate the InfoCredit business activity index? Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. In the case of individual communes, we calculate the index value per 1,000 residents. Previous news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Microbusiness stagnation
Microbusiness stagnation InfoCredit Business Activity Index In the second quarter of this year, there are no changes in economic activities: there is no point in talking about a revival. The InfoCredit micro-entrepreneurship index calculated quarterly after Q2 2024 has slightly turned positive, but it is much lower than a year ago. After a rather promising May, June brought us back down to earth. In the last month of the second quarter, those closing and suspending economic activities once again had a big advantage. The index calculated monthly is in the red, lower than a year ago. The InfoCredit indices continue to maintain cyclical fluctuations, but they are sinking lower and lower from year to year. There are no changes in economic activities. We are still stuck in stagnation. In the second quarter of this year, 132.7 thousand economic activities were established and resumed (131.3 thousand were closed and suspended), which could be perceived positively. The InfoCredit index calculated quarterly therefore turned positive (+1440 points). The problem is that in the same period last year our index was worth +3889 points. And it is falling from year to year. The second quarter has historically been usually good for opening and resuming business activities. We were making up for losses after a seasonally weaker end and beginning of the year. Two years ago, the InfoCredit index was worth +16,784 points, three years ago +33,989 points, and four years ago as much as +47,601 points. However, 2020 was a special year. After the collapse and panicky suspension in March 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic and the shock associated with restrictions), small businesses, especially tourist businesses, resumed their operations en masse before the holidays. After promising March, April and May, when new and resuming businesses had an advantage over those being closed and suspended, one could have hoped that the trend would reverse. However, June was a big disappointment. The InfoCredit index calculated monthly in the last month of the first half of the year plunged to -5433 points. It is much lower than a year ago (it was also weak then, but the index was worth -3648 points). And we have a similar situation as in quarterly terms. Two years ago, after June 2022, the index was worth +3,575 points, after H1 2021 it was +9,003 points, and after June 2020 even 27,920 points. The graphs look very worrying. They maintain cyclical changes, but from year to year they sink lower and lower. Everything indicates that nothing will change this trend for now. Reliefs that were supposed to bring respite to small entrepreneurs (like holidays from ZUS) are still looming somewhere on the horizon). By the way, we also tracked what happened in June in typically tourist communes. It happened. More on that soon. How we calculate the InfoCredit business activity index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Relief for micro-enterprises on the horizon
Relief for micro-enterprises on the horizon InfoCredit Business Activity Index In the first quarter of this year, 147.4 thousand businesses were closed and suspended, and 120.6 thousand were opened and resumed.The InfoCredit micro-entrepreneurship index calculated quarterly is worth -26.8 thousand points, more or less the same as a year ago. After a rather weak January and February, the situation improved slightly in March. The IC index calculated monthly came out positive. It is higher than a year ago. What next? It depends on many factors. First of all, on the economic situation, but mainly on the costs of running a business. No changes in business activities. The first quarter did not bring any breakthrough despite the announcements of certain reliefs for micro-entrepreneurs. This means that we still closed and suspended more businesses than we opened and resumed. The improvement in the situation in March is a good sign. Whether this was just a one-off slight rebound or maybe something more, we will find out in the coming months. If we take into account the entire first quarter, there is no sign of any recovery so far. There are still significantly more businesses being closed and suspended than new and reopened businesses. The IC index after the first quarter of 2024 is worth about as much as after the first quarter of 2023, i.e. -26.8 thousand points compared to -27.7 thousand points a year ago. The situation improved slightly in March. The IC index calculated monthly grew each month (-22 thousand points in January 2024, -5.94 thousand in February and +1.1 points in March). It is currently higher than a year ago. However, this is not a significant jump that could indicate a change in mood among small entrepreneurs. After March 2023, it was worth -925 points. The rising costs of operating from year to year certainly do not improve moods. The situation of small entrepreneurs and self-employed, especially those who settle on a scale, could be significantly improved by increasing the tax-free amount to PLN 60 thousand. PLN. However, this decision is moving away rather than getting closer. Currently, it is looming somewhere on the horizon. It is certain that this will not be the year. And will it be 2025? That remains to be seen. A certain relief may be the ZUS holiday. We already know that a micro-entrepreneur will be able to choose any month once a year in which they will not have to pay ZUS, Labor Fund and Solidarity Fund contributions. And this regardless of the form of settlement. Better safe than sorry… Can the ZUS holiday affect the growth of new and suspended businesses? We will find out in the coming quarters. One thing is certain. Those who carry out activities on behalf of their former employers will not be able to take advantage of the relief. Therefore, pushing them into self-employment will not affect the statistics for now. Another thing that weighs heavily on entrepreneurs running a business is the non-deductible health insurance contribution. And certainly the absurdity of paying this contribution in the event of selling a car. The Polish order has made the income from the sale of a fixed asset part of the basis for calculating the contribution. This absurdity is to disappear. We keep our fingers crossed. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Microbusiness says: pass
Microbusiness says: pass InfoCredit Business Activity Index In 2023, 372.5 thousand businesses were suspended. This is definitely more than in 2022, which was already a record low. Last year, as many as 198.2 thousand businesses were closed – the most since 2014. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index fell to its lowest point on a quarterly basis since we started counting it (January 2018).In total, there were almost 571 thousand suspended and closed businesses in 2023, and 479.5 thousand new and resumed businesses. Exactly what we expected happened. And we are not proud of it. In October, we wrote that if Polish micro-entrepreneurs were to suspend their businesses at the same pace as they had been doing up until September, the record would be broken. And it would be broken by a lot. And it was broken. In 2023, 372.5 thousand businesses were suspended. A year earlier, 347.4 thousand. The fact that 198.2 thousand businesses were closed is also very worrying. This is the worst result since 2014. The advantage of suspended and closed businesses over new and reopened businesses has increased even more. The result – the InfoCredit index, calculated quarterly, is the lowest in history. What’s going on? Nothing new. The cost of running a business on your own has been constantly growing for over 2 years. Because that’s how long we’ve been dealing with high inflation. Let’s recall – we had this problem in Poland long before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In January 2022, inflation was 9.2 percent y/y (minimum wage in 2022 was PLN 3,010 gross, hourly rate 19.70). And then it only got more expensive. Price increases mean higher business costs, greater employee pressure for pay rises (which is hardly surprising given the record low unemployment rate), an increase in the minimum wage and other wages. And consequently, an increase in ZUS contributions and burdens on businesses. In the meantime, entrepreneurs (and not only them) received a gift in the form of the Polish Deal (we deliberately write with a small one), i.e. an additional burden in the form of a non-deductible health insurance contribution. The disturbing trend of an increase in suspended and closed businesses began in mid-2021, right after the announcement of the assumptions of the Polish Deal. And it accelerated significantly after the Polish Deal was implemented. What now? We don’t have good news. Entrepreneurs welcomed the new year, and with it, more burdens. The ZUS contribution is now PLN 1,600.27 compared to PLN 1,418.48 in 2023. Can’t you do it alone? Do you employ? The minimum wage is already PLN 4,242 gross, and it was PLN 3,600 in 2023 in the second half of the year. The hourly rate is increasing from PLN 23.5 to PLN 27.7. Reliefs? For now, it’s vague. The tax-free amount of PLN 60,000 is not possible for now. ZUS vacation for a month? The bill is there, it is to be submitted to the Sejm by March. A lot can still happen in business until March. For now, one thing is certain – sole proprietorship is becoming less and less attractive compared to… full-time employment. Given the situation on the labor market. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
InfoCredit Business Activity Index Microbusiness on hold In the first three quarters of 2023, 268.6 thousand businesses were suspended. This is much more than in the same period of 2022 (249.7 thousand) and in 2021 (174.9 thousand). In the third quarter of 2023 alone, 96.3 thousand businesses were suspended, compared to 88.4 thousand a year ago and 72.7 thousand in 2021. The increase in the number of suspensions affected the InfoCredit business activity index. When counted quarterly after September 2023, it dropped significantly to -19,471 points, compared to -9,124 points a year ago and -5,523 points after September 2021. This year, the number of suspended businesses has been growing steadily. There are about as many terminated as in 2022, the first year in which the Polish Deal was in force. And it was still a weak year for micro-entrepreneurs. New and resumed micro-businesses do not compensate for the losses. On the contrary – the imbalance between those in the plus and those in the minus is constantly deepening. In the first three quarters of this year, 368.8 thousand businesses were established and resumed, 412.8 thousand were terminated and closed. It was similar a year ago, but the advantage of the latter was not so significant – 357.3 thousand compared to 393.7 thousand. It is also worth noting that the InfoCredit index after Q3 has never been so low. So we can say that the simplest form of business is experiencing an increasing crisis, and the trend that began to emerge in 2020 is strengthening. Let us recall – in 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand were terminated. activity – the most since 2014. Everything indicates that last year’s inglorious records are at risk. If in the fourth quarter entrepreneurs suspend as many activities as in the third, the result from 2022 will be beaten. There can be only one conclusion – micro-entrepreneurs need support like never before. They have been struggling with crises practically since the beginning of 2020. First with restrictions related to the epidemic, then with the effects of the war in Ukraine, inflation, increased operating costs and now with the burdens related to the Polish Deal. And on the horizon – more burdens. In accordance with the adopted assumptions of the draft state budget for 2024, the average salary will amount to PLN 7,824. This means an increase of as much as 12.8 percent compared to 2023. As a result, the amount of ZUS contributions for companies will increase significantly again. Not to mention the minimum wage. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is in the positive, it means that more businesses have been established and suspended than suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
IC index lower than a year ago
IC index lower than a year ago INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR The second quarter brought a slight increase in activity in economic activities in Poland. The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of new and resumed microbusinesses to closed and suspended ones, rose slightly. However, it is far from optimistic. The past three months were much weaker than in the years 2019-2022. The index, counted quarterly, was much higher then. In the second quarter of this year, there were more new and resumed economic activities (a total of 131.2 thousand) than closed and suspended ones (127,252). This is a seasonal phenomenon – this usually happens in the period April – June). The closer to the holidays, the more seasonal businesses are opened and resumed. The problem is that in the years 2019-2022 in the second quarter the predominance of new and suspended activities was much greater. In 2019 (the last before the pandemic), our quarterly index was worth +27,815 points). In 2020 (a strong rebound after a weak Q3 due to restrictions) it was worth as much as +47,601 points. Even last year, when entrepreneurs were already feeling the increasing burden (the Polish Deal and inflation caused a retreat from the simplest form of business), the index was at 16,784 points. This year it is only 3,939 points. The same is true for our indicator on a monthly basis. Our index grew from December (then it was worth -26,867 points) to April (then +5,912 points). And this was a normal phenomenon (we usually record the greatest retreat from activity at the turn of the year). The problem is that in May it began to slide again, to take a negative value in June (-3,640 points), which we usually did not record. Usually in June the index is positive. In 2019 it was worth +3,739 points, a year later even +27,920 points (again – a strong rebound after the first months of the epidemic). Even a year ago, after very weak first months (Polish Deal, effects of the war in Ukraine), it was worth +3,575 points. The effect? In the entire first half of 2023, we recorded fewer new and resumed activities than closed and suspended ones. The losses from the first quarter have not been made up for. The data still shows the crisis of the simplest form of running a business. Let us recall – in 2022 (Polish Deal), a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand businesses were terminated – the most since 2014. The main reason was unstable tax regulations and rising operating costs. It is difficult to talk about a rebound this year. Our indices are sinking lower and lower. They could be even lower if not for the support of Ukrainian citizens. In recent months, we have been recording more and more business activities registered in Poland by our neighbors. In 2022, Ukrainians established 17.5 thousand businesses in Poland (5.6 percent of all). From the beginning of 2023 to the end of May alone, 13.2 businesses run by Ukrainian citizens were registered in Poland, which means that there may be much more of them than last year. Details in the commentary Poland – a good place for Ukrainian entrepreneurship, prepared by InfoCredit and the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and resumed than suspended and closed. The higher the index value – the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
IC index bounces off the bottom
IC index bounces off the bottom INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR In the first quarter of 2023, there were again – for the third time in a row – more applications for termination and suspension of business activities in Poland than for establishment and resumption. The InfoCredit index, describing this relationship, is therefore still in the red – both quarterly and monthly. It is somewhat comforting that the index has moved away from the bottom of 2022 and 2021. The situation is improving slightly from month to month. In the first three months of 2023, 119,847 business activities were established and resumed, 147,601 thousand were terminated and resumed. The index was therefore worth -27,754 points quarterly. This is much better than in the fourth quarter of 2022 (-41,060 points) and better than in the first quarter of 2022 (-44,087). January 2023 was still quite weak (the index after the first month was worth -17,202 points), but the following months brought a rebound. In February, there were 6,234 more closed and suspended businesses than new and reopened ones, and in March only 925 more. Does this mean we will soon break even? The trend is upward. April, May and June are seasonally conducive to starting and resuming business activities. This was the case last year and previous years. April 2020 was an exception, but that was only the second month of restrictions due to the pandemic. This year, everything indicates that we will now come out on top. There were 6,284 more businesses started and resumed in April than closed and suspended businesses (as of 18.04). Seasonality in CEIDG data is very visible. Usually, in the first and fourth quarters there was a retreat from business, the second and third quarters of the year balanced these outflows and even brought a surplus. In recent years, however, a very disturbing phenomenon of a crisis in the simplest form of running a business has been visible. Business activities have been gradually decreasing. Let us recall – 2021 was already disturbing in this respect. In 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand were terminated. business – the most since 2014. The main reason was unstable tax regulations and rising business costs. What will happen this year? For now, we can talk about a slight rebound. We will be able to say more after Q2 and Q3 of this year. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Our dear little business
Our dear little business INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX January 2023 was another month in which there were more applications for the suspension and termination of business activities than those started and resumed. The InfoCredit index, which describes this relationship, has been in the red for 7 months. This means that active business activities are not increasing. On the contrary, they are decreasing. The past month is slightly better than January 2022. In the first month of this year, 40,308 activities were started and resumed, 62,086 were ended and closed. Our index therefore reached a value of -21,778 points. In January 2022, 35,520 activities were started and resumed, and 65,386 were ended and closed. Our index was then worth -29,866 points after a slight increase since December 2021 (then -35,716 points, the lowest in history, lower even than after March 2020, when the epidemic broke out). This was the result of confusion and concerns related to the tax reform under the Polish Deal. Micro-entrepreneurs considered the changes to be unfavourable for them and began to withdraw en masse from the form of running a business in the form of a business. Now, at the turn of 2022 and 2023, it can be assumed that this is the result of the rising costs of the simplest form of running a business. Seasonality is visible in the quotations of our index. That is – the index always drops at the turn of the year, because we note an increase in the suspension of activities. However, in recent years, this phenomenon has been gaining momentum. Similar fluctuations in the index on a monthly basis (although smaller) are observed before and after the holidays. In May and June, entrepreneurs who run their business seasonally suspend their activities, only to suspend them again after the holiday season. In turn, those who want to take advantage of holidays suspend their activities so as not to incur unnecessary costs. InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Small business on hold
Small business on hold InfoCredit Business Activity Index In 2022, CEIDG received a total of over one million applications for the establishment, resumption, suspension and termination of business activity. This is the highest in 9 years, i.e. since 2014. The vast majority of applications, however, concerned the suspension of business activity. There were as many as 347.3 thousand of them. This is a record. Last year, 193.2 thousand businesses were terminated – the highest since 2014. The InfoCredit business activity index calculated quarterly fell to the value from the turn of 2021 and 2022. Year-on-year and taking into account seasonality, it is sinking lower and lower. After two years of a significant decline in the activity of Poles due to the epidemic, last year we finally noted a significant increase in the number of applications submitted to CEIDG. In 2020 and 2021, there were almost 850 and 891 thousand, respectively. Last year, exactly 1,003,653. This would be a reason for optimism if most of them concerned new businesses. Unfortunately, this is not the case. There were 463.1 thousand new and resumed businesses in total, 540.6 thousand terminated and suspended. The number of applications to suspend business activity in particular is worrying, as many as 347.3 thousand. This is a record result. There were 193.2 thousand terminated businesses, the highest number since 2014 and 2013, when there were 208.2 thousand and 235.6 thousand, respectively. The number of applications for suspensions did not increase abruptly at the end of the year, but gradually, throughout the year. In the first half of the year, there were 161.3 thousand (in the first half of 2021, 115.6 thousand). In the second half, 186.1 thousand, compared to 162.7 thousand in the same period of 2021. In the fourth quarter, 97.7 thousand suspensions were recorded, compared to 90 thousand in the last three months of 2021. Only December 2022 was calmer. 39.6 thousand businesses were suspended then, compared to 42.4 thousand in December 2021. However, at the end of 2021, we noted a significant increase in closed and suspended businesses, because entrepreneurs did not like the chaos and ambiguity associated with the Polish Deal. The last three years are difficult to compare, because they brought a significant increase in uncertainty and events that we had not seen before. 2020 and 2021 are a time of epidemics and restrictions. The turn of 2021 and 2022 brought us the Polish Deal, huge confusion in tax regulations and rising inflation. The last 11 months have already seen a huge increase in the costs of running a business, not only due to additional tax and contribution burdens, but above all due to the sudden increase in the prices of raw materials and energy. That is why first, in 2020 and 2021, we observed a decrease in activity in submitting applications to CEIDG, and now we are seeing more and more of them. The number of closures is not increasing so quickly, because it is easier to go into a state of suspension, to observe the situation and postpone the decision. The situation in the general statistics is somewhat saved by the increase in the number of established and resumed businesses. In 2022, we recorded 310.2 thousand new ones, 152.9 thousand resumed, i.e. a total of 463.1 thousand. (in 2020 and 2021, 425.3 and 436.4 thousand, respectively). However, it is still far from the best years in this respect, i.e. 2017 and 2018, when there were over 491 thousand of them in total. The upward trend in suspended activities has been ongoing since mid-2021, when the assumptions of the Polish Deal were presented. There is no indication that it will end soon. The beginning of 2023 was not good either. By January 23, 27.7 thousand activities had been established and resumed, and as many as 40.5 thousand had been terminated and suspended. Wnioski rocznie Year Assumption* End Suspension Sum 2022 463 080 193 227 347 346 1 003 653 2021 436 365 176 137 278 282 890 784 2020 425 334 142 375 281 809 849 518 2019 470 184 173 320 306 853 950 357 2018 491 647 177 083 303 270 972 000 2017 491 234 178 898 309 242 979 374 2016 465 970 181 053 307 132 954 155 2015 476 947 192 987 311 854 981 788 2014 487 240 208 188 314 652 1 010 080 2013 486 902 235 630 312 548 1 035 080 2012 423 655 49 968 297 380 771 003 Suma 5 118 558 1 908 866 3 370 368 10 397 792 * It includes applications for starting and resuming a business. Source: CEIDG InfoCredit Business Activity Index Starting this year, we are changing the rules for presenting the InfoCredit Business Activity Index. Instead of showing the ratio of new to closed and resumed to suspended businesses, we will publish the ratio of new and resumed to closed and suspended businesses. When the index shows positive values, it means that more businesses have been established and resumed than suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. Similarly, when the index shows values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). To start with, we present the index on a quarterly basis. After January, we will also present it on a monthly basis. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl