The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat
The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In November of this year, 7,263 more businesses were established than were closed. The InfoCredit index remains in a significant positive position, but it is lower than in November 2019 (then +9,217 points). This is due to the fact that since September 2020, the number of new businesses has been falling slightly each month. The number of businesses closed since September has remained consistently above 12,000 per month. There were significantly more people suspending their businesses in November 2020 than those resuming them. The InfoCredit index has thus deepened the decline to -18,118 points. It is also lower than in November 2019 (then -14,084). Overall, however, comparing 11 months of this year to the same period in 2019, nothing alarming is happening. From January to November 2020, 243,100 businesses were established, 127,658 were closed. 155,190 were resumed, and 250,118 were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, the figures were 290,314 (new), 149,534 (closed), 149,979 (resumed) and 269,473 (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data. The closer to the end of the year, the less activity in CEIDG. It might seem that what was supposed to happen in the current – very volatile year for the economy – has already happened. – However, it is worth waiting until the end of December to draw final conclusions. At that time, the number of closed and suspended businesses usually increases significantly, seasonally. Today, after 11 months of this year, it seems that the situation is starting to stabilize. However, I do not think that this year we will improve the result from 2019 in terms of new businesses. At that time, there were almost 310 thousand of them – says Jerzy Wonka, development director of the analytical company InfoCredit. This year is very difficult for entrepreneurs. Especially the smallest ones. The end of March brought a sudden increase in the number of suspended businesses under the influence of impulse and uncertainty. The next one is a gradual increase in interest in this form of economic activity. Until September. Now, the data from 2019 and 2020 are becoming more and more comparable. Does this mean a return to normality? – Now, in October and November, we see stabilization, after six-month fluctuations. The end of the first quarter and the so-called panic among micro-entrepreneurs was a one-off phenomenon. Later, by the end of Q3, we saw an increase in interest in sole proprietorships, reaching all-time record values. This was not entirely the result of us increasingly valuing independence and having an idea for a business. For employers and clients, this is a very convenient form of remuneration for co-workers and service providers. Much more convenient than, for example, a full-time job or a civil law contract. Especially in times when you have to keep an eye on costs – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
September is once again a month of suspensions
September is once again a month of suspensions InfoCredit Microenterprise Index InfoCredit’s forecasts for September have been confirmed. The number of new businesses continues to grow, and the InfoCredit indicator describing the ratio of businesses being established to those being closed is again rising strongly. It is true that we have noted a significant predominance of suspended businesses over those being resumed, but this is a typical phenomenon at the end of August and September, when the holiday season ends. New burdens may increase the attractiveness of the simplest form of entrepreneurship. In September, 26,797 new businesses were established, 13,796 were closed. 11,889 were resumed and 26,084 were suspended – according to preliminary CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, rose from 12,550 points to 13,001 points. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses being resumed to those being closed fell from -9,461 points to -14,195 points. As usual, most businesses were suspended in the last days of the month. In the last ten days of September, i.e. from 21 to 30 September, CEIDG received 15,550 such applications (as many as 11,508 in the last 3 days). This is a planned action that usually repeats itself at this time of year. We noted a similar phenomenon in the last 10 days of September 2018, when 14,277 were suspended, and in 2019, when 16,199 were suspended. On the other hand, those starting new businesses still have a big advantage over those closing them. This means that this form of entrepreneurship is holding up very well. The number of micro-entrepreneurs is still record-breaking, taking into account the whole picture of the situation. In the entire third quarter of this year, 75,443 new businesses were created, 34,340 were closed. 37,199 businesses were resumed, and 57,043 were suspended. The simplest form of business will still be popular In the coming months, it will still be worth closely monitoring applications submitted to CEIDG. This is related not only to rising labor costs, a more difficult situation on the labor market and market flexibility. Changes in the forms of taxation of entrepreneurs may also have an impact on traffic in CEIDG. – We are closely monitoring the plans to impose CIT on limited partnerships. Our databases show that this will affect almost 73 thousand entrepreneurs who are co-owners of approximately 43 thousand limited partnerships. Our calculations show that after the changes are introduced, as many as 25% of limited partnerships, which account for 90% of the revenue generated by these businesses (i.e. almost PLN 300 billion annually!) will pay 19% CIT. Effectively, the interest rate for partners in these companies, mainly Polish entrepreneurs, will increase to 34% or, in the case of people paying the solidarity tax, to 38% – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit Development Director. In his opinion, the introduction of double taxation for partners in limited partnerships may cause them to start analyzing other forms of conducting business, including economic activity. – The InfoCredit Index has been signaling for many months that when there are fewer positions, there are more sole proprietorships. And these have a much lower ability to achieve market success than limited partnerships, which already have an established position on the market – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
End of August? We are suspending
End of August? We are suspending InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In August, almost twice as many businesses were suspended as were resumed, so the InfoCredit index fell well below 0. This is the first drop since March and immediately significant. However, this is not a reason to worry, because it is a seasonal phenomenon. The number of businesses is still growing. The new/closed ratio, in turn, is strongly positive. Interestingly, traffic in CEIDG was much lower than in the corresponding months of 2019 and 2018. Last month, 23,006 businesses were registered, 10,456 were closed. 10,128 businesses were resumed, and 19,589 were suspended – according to preliminary CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 12,550 points, moving away from this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses reopened to those closed fell to -9,461 points. This is the lowest value since March of this year, when entrepreneurs concerned about the decline in revenues as a result of restrictions related to the epidemic massively suspended their businesses. However, this cannot be treated as a retreat from business. In the same period in recent years, there was a significant increase in suspensions, especially in the last decade of the month. Two different index readings. What’s the deal? The data from the entire month do not show this phenomenon well in terms of resumptions and suspensions. To better assess them, you need to look at the last decades of August in recent years. From 22 to 31.08.2018, 20,585 businesses were suspended, 6,360 were resumed. From 22 to 31.08.2019, 18,107 businesses were suspended, and 4,852 were resumed. This year’s result (13,715 vs. 3,544) is therefore no surprise. It is worth emphasizing that the indicator describing the ratio of new to closed businesses in the last decades of August 2018 – 2020 was constantly positive. – In August, mainly those entrepreneurs who run their businesses seasonally close their businesses. This is a normal phenomenon. In turn, at the end of June, those who work from September to the end of the school year suspend their businesses. This year was similar. What will it be like in September? It seems that it should be the same as in previous years. Today, however, it is difficult to say anything for sure, because the impact of the situation related to the epidemic on the market and the labor market cannot be predicted – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at InfoCredit. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index 06/08/2020
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index 06/08/2020 New businesses are still growing, the indicator is close to record values In July, those who want to take matters into their own hands still had a clear advantage. This is true both among new entrepreneurs and those who already know the taste of their own business and have suspended it for various reasons. The holiday season did not change much here. 25,640 businesses were registered, 10,088 were closed. 15,182 businesses were resumed, and 11,370 were suspended – according to CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 15,552 points, remaining close to this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses being resumed to those being closed fell to 3,812 points, but remained clearly positive. It has remained above 0 for three months in a row, which has not happened since the beginning of 2018. Previously, in 2019 and 2018, it was positive only twice. Self-employed means cheaper The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than completed – negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Data from the last 4 months confirm that the panic we saw among entrepreneurs in March was a one-off event. At that time, 48,624 entrepreneurs suspended their business activity, and 11,680 ended it. In the last 10 days alone, 28,432 businesses were suspended and 3,124 were terminated. What does this mean? We are certainly gradually adapting to the new reality. Those who were to suspend or terminate their business due to the epidemic have already done so. Today, they are gradually returning to it or waiting for a better moment. On the other hand, changes in the labor market are forcing a return to self-employment. An employee or specialist running his or her own business is more competitive on the labor market because he or she is cheaper from the employer’s perspective. We are waiting for the holidays with resumptions During the holiday season, the number of resumptions of business activity dropped significantly, which had an impact on the total number of applications that went through the CEIDG system. This is the lowest this year. In total, the system processed 62,280 applications from entrepreneurs, compared to 72,639 in June. In March this year, which was exceptional due to the sudden increase in suspensions, as many as 90,028 applications were submitted. This is due to the fact that some micro-entrepreneurs, mainly those who do not employ employees, suspend their business for the holidays to simply rest. And since there is no income, they do not want to incur costs either. 15,182 businesses were resumed, compared to 25,576 in June and 23,597 in May. However, the InfoCredit index describing the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses remained positive. There was no significant increase in business suspensions – 11,370 were recorded, compared to 9,582 in June and 11,278 in May. Those who wanted to freeze their micro-businesses had already done so before the holidays. And especially in March, when the economy was frozen. Interestingly, the seasonal decline is not visible among new, closed and suspended businesses. – This year, our index is behaving differently than in previous years. That is why it is worth following it. The best example is March. In the following months, it seemed that the economy was slowly returning to normal. There was a demand for seasonal work. Poles are eager to take vacations. What will happen next? Nobody knows and it is increasingly difficult to make forecasts. On the one hand, the June data from the Central Statistical Office on unemployment, average wages and employment in the enterprise sector were better than expected. On the other hand, in June there were 208 thousand more unemployed people year on year. That is a lot. The number of cases is growing instead of falling, so we have to return to restrictions. I think that in the coming months the data and indications of our index may still surprise us a lot – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl