Welcome back Grey Zone. 2.0
Welcome back Grey Zone. 2.0 InfoCredit Business Activity Index In the first half of 2022, and mainly in the second quarter, entrepreneurs tried to adapt to the new reality. Inflationary, tax-war reality. There were more new and resumed business activities than in the same periods of 2021 and 2020. The problem is that there were much more suspensions and terminations of activities than in the previous two years. On the one hand, the cancellation of the epidemic and the lifting of restrictions brought new opportunities. On the other hand, the increase in tax burdens and costs forced many businesses to suspend and close. Polish entrepreneurs, especially micro entrepreneurs, perfectly sense every business opportunity and every problem. We have been learning about this since the transformation. They have been building Poland’s GDP and economic success since 1989. – Can’t you cope with the burdens with the current regulations? Back off. Is there an opportunity? Take advantage! This is how Polish entrepreneurs have approached work for years. In the last three years, with such huge volatility of the economy and business conditions, this has been clearly visible. So what if there are more new and resumed economic activities in Q2 than in the same periods of 2021 and 2020? There are many more suspensions and closures – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at the analytical company InfoCredit. Let’s look at the data. There were 238,336 new and resumed businesses in the first half of 2022. This is much more than in 2021 and 2020 (229,276 and 223,220, respectively). Suspensions and terminations? 265,500 in the first half of 2022, compared to 198,485 in 2021 and 213,395 two years earlier. We observed the greatest escape from business activity at the turn of 2021 and 2022. In January 2022, 26,528 applications were recorded to start a new business and 8,901 to resume it. 37,626 thousand entrepreneurs suspended their business and 27,235 thousand terminated it. No wonder, entrepreneurs were already afraid of higher tax burdens and confusion related to the Polish Deal. ZUS contributions also increased significantly – pension from PLN 615.93 to PLN 693.58 and disability from PLN 252.43 to PLN 284.26 (+12.61%). – The data clearly shows what is happening in our economy. On the one hand, we have the opening and resumption of seasonal holiday businesses for the first time in three years without restrictions. On the other – an escape from rising costs, taxes, unpredictability. The reduction of the PIT tax rate from July 2022 for people settling in the first threshold could have had some impact on the opening of seasonal business activities – adds Jerzy Wonka. Holiday business opportunities without restrictions related to the epidemic caused the Index describing the ratio of new and resumed activities to bounce back strongly. The problem is that the index describing the ratio of suspended and terminated businesses is diving again. Conclusions? Let’s prepare for turbulence in the third quarter. They will come in September and October, along with the increase in energy prices and the costs of doing business. – Our last report after the first quarter of 2022 was entitled “Welcome back Grey Zone”. Not much has changed after the first half of the year. We are still heading towards the grey zone. Small businesses do not like a vacuum. They will do their thing. I am afraid that we are returning to the times when “cash is the king”. The problem is that this does not apply to the złoty. Our currency is becoming hot paper. With such high inflation, small entrepreneurs will again rush to exchange money earned in the grey zone – as in the 1990s – for dollars and francs, in order to lose as little as possible. The weak złoty, on the other hand, is an opportunity for those who cooperate with foreign entities and receive part or all of their remuneration in euro or dollars – says Jerzy Wonka. And what is the state of economic activity in general? According to CEIDG data, three years ago there were 2,548,016 active business activities, including those conducted exclusively in the form of a civil partnership, compared to 2,601,617 at the end of the first half of 2022. This means that the number of active small businesses in Poland remains more or less constant. However, there was a sudden increase in suspended activities – from 449,296 after the first half of 2019 to 566,495 after the first half of 2019. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new activities than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended activities. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Welcome back Grey Zone?
Welcome back Grey Zone? The Polish order has effectively frozen the plans of enterprising Poles. January was another disastrous month when it comes to the simplest business activity. Similarly to December 2021, significantly more applications were submitted to CEIDG for suspension and termination than for the establishment and resumption of a sole proprietorship. InfoCredit indices are still the lowest since March 2020, when entrepreneurs first reacted nervously to restrictions related to the epidemic. In January 2022, 26,528 applications were recorded for starting a new business and 8,901 for resuming it. 37,626 thousand entrepreneurs suspended their business and 27,235 thousand terminated it. – The tax system in force since 2022 can hardly be called transparent. There are opinions that it is the most complicated in the history of free economic activity. It is therefore difficult to expect other effects, such as those visible at the end of last year and at the beginning of this year. We regularly monitor economic activity. Since the beginning of the epidemic, we have been constantly publishing the InfoCredit index to analyze the impact of economic fluctuations on the propensity to entrepreneurship in Poland. This has been decreasing since the first half of 2021, when the assumptions of the tax system reform were announced – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. The mass retreat and decline of the InfoCredit entrepreneurship index, the lowest since March 2020, was recorded in December 2021. At that time, 24,207 new businesses were established and 9,110 were resumed. 41,480 were suspended and 26,344 were closed. The turn of the year usually brings more activity in CEIDG, but a year ago it was not so bad. Let’s look at the data for January 2021: – new businesses 23,550;– resumed 8,574;– suspended 24,104;– closed 16,412. – The industry says that the New Deal, tested in Poland, can now be exported to Russia under sanctions. This is a bitter joke and I am far from laughing. The truth is, however, that entrepreneurs have issued an unequivocal assessment of the new tax regulations. With such inflation and a very tense geopolitical situation, it would be worth considering suspending the reform. I am afraid that with the growing burden on entrepreneurs, not only due to tax reasons but also due to the increase in fuel, currency and raw material prices, we will once again be dealing with an increasingly large grey zone – adds Jerzy Wonka. In February, the situation is gradually starting to normalize. In the first half of the month, 11,358 businesses were established, 4,907 were resumed, 10,291 were suspended and 7,979 were terminated. – There are more suspensions and terminations in total, but this advantage is gradually disappearing. We are waiting for data for the entire month, which will include the first days of the war in Ukraine. Only then will it be possible to draw more complete conclusions – says Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
InfoCredit Business Activity Index Entrepreneurs vote with their feet – The InfoCredit Business Activity Index, describing the ratio of new to terminated business activities, fell to its lowest level in two years in December 2021. The same was true for the indicator describing the ratio of resumed to suspended activities. – In December 2021, there was a similar retreat from sole proprietorships as in March 2020, when entrepreneurs were terrified by restrictions due to the developing epidemic. One of the reasons was tax uncertainty. – In the entire fourth quarter of 2021, we also noted a significant increase in terminated and suspended activities. Although this is a seasonal phenomenon, in 2020 and 2019 these proportions were smaller. – Last year is another, after 2020, in which we noted a decrease in the number of CEIDG applications below 900 thousand in total. There were 889 thousand of them (850 thousand a year earlier) compared to 950 thousand in 2019, over 970 thousand. in 2017-2018 and almost 1 million in 2015. In December and throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, entrepreneurs who had concerns that the new regulations would significantly reduce the profitability of their businesses, went to CEIDG to submit applications to suspend and terminate their business. The result is a significant deepening of the downward trend of InfoCredit indices, which has been ongoing since May last year. – The closer to the turn of the year, the greater doubts entrepreneurs have about the profitability of their own business. Especially those for whom every increase in contributions or charges matters in the final analysis. Let us recall, for example: for many larger businesses, the increase in health insurance contributions from several thousand in 2021 to the forecasted several hundred thousand is an insurmountable barrier. This has been visible since May, when the assumptions of the Polish Deal were presented. In our opinion, their decision was also significantly influenced by the rising costs of operations driven by the increase in inflation. There is also growing talk that such an uncertain economic, legal and tax situation may contribute to another significant increase in the size of the grey zone – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. The end of the year usually favors decisions to close or suspend a business. However, the past month was exceptional. 24.3 thousand businesses were established, 26.6 thousand were terminated, 9.1 thousand were resumed, and as many as 41.9 thousand were suspended. The retreat was most visible in the last decade of December – 15.9 thousand businesses were terminated and 27.2 thousand were suspended. It has not been this bad since the last decade of March 2020, when 28.4 thousand businesses were suspended and 3124 were terminated. – It is worth noting that in December 2021 there were significantly more terminations than in March 2020. At that time, entrepreneurs were holding off on decisions, waiting for the situation to develop. So they chose the state of suspension. Now many of them no longer have any doubts that the form of sole proprietorship, in the current conditions, has lost much of its attractiveness – adds Jerzy Wonka. More and more suspensions and terminations Q4 2021 was the worst in three years in terms of applications for termination and suspension of business. In total, 53.5 thousand businesses were terminated and 89.5 thousand were suspended. In the same periods of previous years, the figures were 40.5 thousand and 81.4 thousand (2020) and 48.4 thousand and 89.4 thousand (2019), respectively. The number of applications for termination and suspension of business activity increased from month to month, until the December peak in the last ten days of the month. In October and November, 23 thousand businesses were suspended, in December it was 41.9 thousand. The number of terminated businesses increased from 12.5 thousand in October to 14.6 thousand in November and to 26.6 thousand in December. Much fewer applications than in 2015-2019 In the whole of 2021, there was a slight increase in applications to CEIDG compared to 2020, when the economy suddenly entered a deep recession. In total, there were 889,138 applications, renewals, terminations and suspensions compared to 849,518 in 2020. In previous years, traffic in CEIDG was much higher – 950,359 in 2019, 972,000 in 2018, 979,374 in 2017, and even almost a million in 2015. It is worth noting that in the whole of 2021, there were significantly fewer new and resumed businesses (436.3 thousand) than terminated and suspended businesses (453.9 thousand). This has already happened in previous years, but not in such proportions. Rok Założenie* Zakończenie Zawieszenie Suma 2021 436 318 175 911 277 954 890 183 2020 425 334 142 375 281 809 849 518 2019 470 184 173 320 306 854 950 358 2018 491 647 177 083 303 270 972 000 2017 491 234 178 898 309 242 979 374 2016 465 970 181 053 307 132 954 155 2015 476 948 192 987 311 854 981 789 Suma 3 270 338 1 235 575 2 111 494 6 617 407 * It includes applications for starting and resuming a business. Source: CEIDG How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Inertia in applications to CEIDG
Inertia in applications to CEIDG After a promising first half of the year, Poles were no longer so keen to take matters into their own hands in the third quarter. There is no sign of recovery in CEIDG applications, although the economy is picking up. On the contrary, there is uncertainty. In the first three quarters of 2021, 636,440 thousand applications were submitted, compared to 647 thousand in the same period of 2020, although this was a time of licking wounds after a sudden, deep recession. In the third quarter of 2021, there was a significant increase in business suspensions – to 72.7 thousand from 48 thousand in the first quarter and 54 thousand in the second quarter. There were almost as many suspensions as new businesses. The second quarter of 2021 and the entire first half of the year gave hope for the increasing willingness of Poles to start new businesses. There was a recovery in economic activity and a return to the situation that we observed before the epidemic (i.e. in the second quarter of 2019). The third quarter did not confirm this. Entrepreneurs know how to count, they see the rising costs of doing business. And it’s not just about inflation… In Q3, a total of 73,000 new businesses were established (compared to 79.5 thousand in Q2 and 71.3 thousand in Q1), 39.2 thousand were closed (compared to 39.4 thousand in Q2 and 47.4 in Q1). However, there was a significant increase in suspensions. Resumptions slowed down – after 47 thousand in Q2, they fell to 33.3 thousand (31.1 thousand in Q1). Taking into account Q3 year-on-year, the situation in new and closed businesses has not changed significantly, although the economic situation is much better today than a year ago. There are much fewer resumptions than a year ago (in Q3 2020 there were 37.2 thousand), and much more suspensions than in Q3 2020 (then 57 thousand). – After H1, it might seem that in the following quarters the number of new businesses will grow faster than a year ago, there will be more resumptions and fewer suspensions. The economy has recovered, the labor market is in a very good situation and wages in the corporate sector are growing significantly. It might seem that a good opportunity has appeared on the market for independent specialists to go out on their own and provide services for several entities or simply – to start a business on their own. Meanwhile, we have a surprise – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. In his opinion, this is not just the effect of waiting for the fourth wave of the epidemic and fears of further restrictions. – Today, more than ever before, entrepreneurs must reckon with rising operating costs. We haven’t had such inflation for a long time. The costs of materials are rising significantly, not only for construction or industry. Above all, energy and fuel. We also don’t know what final changes in taxes and levies will apply next year. One thing is certain – businesses are simply afraid that they will bear the cost of the Polish Deal. And here, unfortunately, they are right – adds Jerzy Wonka. What next? InfoCredit’s development director emphasizes that a full-time job offers greater stability than working on your own. Therefore, he does not expect the end of the year to bring any greater activity in CEIDG. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Small business returns to normal
Small business returns to normal InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In the second quarter of 2021, there was a revival in economic activity. Poles established more small businesses than in the first quarter of 2021 and in the second quarter of 2020. There were also more resumptions, fewer closures – according to CEIDG data.In the entire first half of 2021, significantly more applications were submitted to CEIDG than a year ago. 150.8 thousand new businesses were established, compared to 124.2 thousand in the first two quarters of 2020. InfoCredit microenterprise indices after the first half of the year are still close to the highest values this year. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed businesses after H1 was worth +12,378 points (compared to +15,077 points after May 2021 and +15,492 after June 2020), and the indicator describing the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses was worth -4,443 points (+173 points after May 2021 and +11,929 after June 2020). With the improvement in the economy, easing of restrictions and a decrease in COVID-19 cases, the situation in small businesses is constantly improving. Q2 2021 brought a revival in economic activity and a return to the situation that we observed before the epidemic (i.e. in Q2 2019). April, May and June of this year are difficult to compare with the same period of 2020. The past quarter for small businesses was completely different than Q2 2020. – A year ago, we were just learning how to operate during the epidemic. The easing of restrictions took place just before the holiday season. This year, small businesses had a chance to slowly prepare for the season from April. Many small businesses that suspended their operations in March 2020 did not resume them until the end of June. This year, the seasonal suspension of operations was spread over several months and took place gradually right after the third wave of the epidemic – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit’s development director. In the second quarter of 2021, 79.5 thousand business activities were established, 39.4 thousand were closed, 47.1 thousand were resumed, and 54.3 thousand were suspended. In the same period last year, 54.7 thousand were established, 47.4 thousand were closed, 31.1 thousand were resumed, and 61.3 thousand were suspended. The situation is similar in the entire first half of 2021. 150.8 thousand businesses were established (124.2 thousand in the first half of 2020), 86.8 thousand were closed (compared to 70.2 thousand), 78.2 thousand were resumed (compared to 99 thousand), and 115.5 thousand were suspended (compared to 142.9 thousand). The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of new to closed businesses, rose to its highest value this year in May (+15,077), also remaining quite high after June (+12,378 points). The indicator describing the ratio of resumptions to suspensions in May came out positive to 179 points (which does not happen often, as it has usually been negative for years), to fall to -4443 points after June. – This is not a worrying phenomenon. Usually, before the holidays, at the end of June, business activities are suspended seasonally by entrepreneurs and specialists who want to take advantage of their vacations and at the same time reduce the burdens associated with running a business – adds Jerzy Wonka. What can we expect in the coming months? – The economic situation in the industry is great, wages are growing, the situation on the labor market is also quite good. This should favor small businesses that cooperate with large ones, and specialists who settle accounts with their clients while running their business. On the other hand – we do not know how quickly we will have to face the fourth wave of infections. And what restrictions we will have to deal with. Because the fact that another wave will occur is obvious given the current slowdown in vaccinations – adds the InfoCredit Development Director. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Small business is getting ready for the season
Small business is getting ready for the season InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In April, there was still a visible recovery in economic activity, which began at the end of the first quarter. In the past month, 25.9 thousand new economic activities were registered, compared to 26.2 thousand in March 2021 and… 10.2 thousand in April 2020 – according to CEIDG data. In April 2021, we also recorded more resumptions of activity (13.4 thousand compared to 12.5 thousand in March 2021) and fewer suspensions (16.3 thousand compared to 18.7 thousand in March 2021). InfoCredit microenterprise indices went up again strongly after April. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed activities increased to +11,770 points from +10,171 points after March, and the ratio of resumed to suspended increased to -2,977 from -6,133 points. Since March, there has been a greater propensity to start and resume business activities. These may not be record values, as in the best months of last year, but it is clear that we are in a completely different situation than in April 2020. A year ago, small businesses were digging in, trying to cope with the restrictions resulting from the epidemic. Today, they are waiting for easing and trying to adapt to the opportunities that appear on the horizon. – April and early May brought entrepreneurs hope for a return to normality. The catering and hotel industries were waiting for the restrictions to be lifted and were slowly preparing to welcome guests. Poles, in turn, finally started planning trips and vacations. This encouraged the seasonal suspension of business activities. We hope that this trend will continue. However, this will depend on the decline in the number of cases and the pace of vaccinations – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. The IC Index, describing the ratio of new to closed businesses, is at its highest since October 2020, when we were just entering the 2nd wave of the epidemic. In turn, the IC Index describing the ratio of reopenings to suspensions is at its highest since the summer of 2020, i.e. the holiday season, when hotels, guesthouses and restaurants could enjoy the season. – With spring, hope returned for doing business in industries that were most affected by the epidemic. Especially since Poles want to use hotels and restaurants, the possibility of active recreation. The macro data that is coming in is quite optimistic. The first quarter of this year was rather the last in which we experienced a decline in GDP. Unemployment is relatively low, and wages in the corporate sector rose significantly in April. Although we feel inflation, interest rates are at record lows. This encourages consumption – adds Jerzy Wonka. In his opinion, the only threat that has appeared on the horizon for entrepreneurs is the New Deal. Small businesses are currently analyzing how the burden will increase with the estimated revenues in the coming months. – I am afraid that this may affect entrepreneurs’ decisions on the choice of the form of business activity – says Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than completed – negative. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended activities. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Thaw in micro-enterprises
Thaw in micro-enterprises InfoCredit Microenterprise Index After several months of stagnation, the number of new business activities in March 2021 increased to 26,229 from 21,285 in February (23,835 in January this year). In March 2020, 18,291 were recorded – according to data flowing into CEIDG.The entire first quarter of 2021 in business activities – thanks to a fairly good March – also looks promising. There were more new activities than a year ago. We also recorded significantly fewer suspensions (61,281 in Q1 2021 compared to 94,861 a year earlier). InfoCredit microenterprise indices went up significantly after March. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed activities increasedto +10,171 points from +7,678, and the ratio of resumed to suspended increased to-6,133 points from -8,197 points. The last month of Q1 2021 significantly changed the picture of micro-entrepreneurship that had been emerging since the autumn of last year. Poles were more willing to start new businesses, and there were significantly more resumptions month-on-month (m/m) and year-on-year (y/y). Suspensions remained unchanged m/m and significantly decreased y/y. What does this mean? – The March data is quite optimistic, but it is difficult to talk about a change in trend, considering the circumstances, i.e. the third wave of the epidemic. On the one hand, small businesses are certainly gradually adapting to the new reality. I do not want to say that it is becoming ordinary. Entrepreneurs are increasingly aware that things will not be the same as before COVID and are more and more willing to make strategic decisions. On the other hand, caution is still visible. That is why in March we have not yet noted any major positive changes, although it should be emphasized that there has not been such panic in suspensions as last year for 11 months – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. Let us recall – last year, the end of the first quarter brought a wave of suspensions of activities due to the first restrictions and growing uncertainty. In March 2020 alone, 48,624 activities were suspended, and 28,432 in the last 10 days alone. Meanwhile, in the whole of March 2021, we recorded 18,652 suspensions. – It is also encouraging that in the entire first quarter we recorded 71,349 new businesses, compared to 69,517 a year earlier. The number of closures and reopenings is comparable. There are significantly fewer suspensions than a year ago. And this is not the effect of pushing full-time employees into business activity, taking into account the latest preliminary data from the labor market. The unemployment rate in March was 6.4% and was slightly lower than in February. However, we will be able to get a full picture of what is happening in microentrepreneurship after the second quarter of 2021, when the data will be relatively comparable. We will be able to compare the entire 3 months of the 2021 epidemic with the entire 3 months of the 2020 epidemic – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in microentrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses, it is negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Business has chosen a waiting tactic
Business has chosen a waiting tactic InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In February 2021, 21.3 thousand businesses were established, 13.6 thousand were closed. Almost 10 thousand were resumed and 18.2 thousand were suspended. In the same period last year, the figures were 23.4 thousand (new), 13.1 (closed), 11.7 (resumed) and 19 thousand (suspended), respectively – according to CEDIG data. The advantage of suspending over unsuspending in February 2021 continues to fall. The InfoCredit index increased from -15,816 points after January to -8,197 points currently. There were 7,678 more new businesses than those closed. This means another monthly increase in the index describing the ratio of new to completed businesses from 6,093 points after January and from 1,306 points in December 2020. There would be nothing alarming in the February data, if not for the fact that fewer and fewer applications are being submitted to CEIDG (excluding those for minor changes in entries). In February 2021, CEIDG received a total of 63,000 of them, compared to 67.2 thousand a year earlier. So there are still not only fewer new and suspended businesses, but also fewer closed and suspended businesses. Business has dug in and is waiting for better times. This applies not only to small businesses, but also to companies registered in the National Court Register. This is clearly visible in the year-on-year comparison. All the more so because February 2020, as a reference point, was the last month of relative “normality” and fairly good economic conditions before the outbreak of the epidemic. What next? Of course, it depends on how the situation develops, further restrictions and consumer sentiment. The number of applications submitted to CEIDG is decreasing month by month. A similar phenomenon is beginning to be visible in the REGON register, where in February the number of newly registered entities dropped by 5.5% to 27,126 counted m/m (GUS data). When it comes to business entities, this trend was already visible last year. In 2020, 311.8 thousand entities were registered, compared to 355.8 in 2019. In the second quarter of 2020, when the epidemic was gaining momentum, 64.4 thousand were registered. entities compared to 94.4 in the same period of 2019. In the fourth quarter, when it was gaining momentum again, 75.9 thousand were registered, compared to 78.3 thousand a year earlier. Interestingly, the number of bankruptcies is also falling significantly. – This means that Polish business is falling into a state of lethargy. We have already become accustomed to the fact that the situation is changing rapidly and new decisions have to be made from day to day. We are not sure whether tomorrow will bring tightening or easing of restrictions. This is not conducive to bold decisions and registration of new businesses. And this is both in the form of activity, which is very flexible, but also in opening new commercial law entities. There are, of course, industries that have benefited from the technological revolution and the increasing interpenetration of real and virtual reality. But there are also those that are in lethargy. By accepting help, they cannot go bankrupt – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. In January, 24 companies declared bankruptcy. This is 19% less month-on-month and as much as 45% less year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, 106 business entities went bankrupt, compared to 159 in the same period a year earlier. In all of 2020, 528 entities went bankrupt, compared to 578 the previous year. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Fewer and fewer applications to CEIDG
Fewer and fewer applications to CEIDG InfoCredit Microenterprise Index The activity of micro-entrepreneurs continues to decline. In January 2021, CEIDG received a total of 74.7 thousand applications compared to 88.04 thousand a year earlier. The trend that we noted in Q4 2020 is therefore continuing. There are not only fewer new and suspended businesses, but also fewer closed and suspended businesses. In January 2021, 23.4 thousand businesses were established, 17.74 thousand were closed, 8.66 thousand were resumed and 24.5 thousand were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, it was 27.84 thousand (new), 21.76 (closed), 11.24 (resumed) and 27.2 thousand (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data. The advantage of those suspending over those unsuspending in January 2021 was smaller than in December. The InfoCredit Index rose from -21,834 points to -15,816. There were 6,093 more new businesses than closed ones. This means a significant increase in the index describing the ratio of new to closed businesses from 1,306 points in December. January this year was another month in which CEIDG received fewer applications than a year earlier. And all of them, including those for closing and suspending business. And it has been like this since October 2020. – We are becoming less active. Not only in terms of new businesses, but also those being resumed and closed. Yes, suspensions still clearly outweigh resumptions, or even new ones, but there were fewer of them than a year ago. One of the reasons is undoubtedly the situation in the economy and the crisis, which has hit many industries very hard. It is difficult to expect anyone to open or resume seasonal activities in the tourism or catering industry for the winter, since these were suspended – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at the analytical company InfoCredit. In his opinion, the situation is also complicated by the uncertainty related to whether the epidemic will develop or not. For now, the beginning of February has brought an increase in the number of applications, including those for new businesses, but after a few days the situation returned to normal. – It is difficult to expect micro-entrepreneurship to flourish again in the coming weeks. Especially since the Polish labor market has shown great resistance to the epidemic. Yes, unemployment increased in December, but only to 6.2% from 6.1% in November. A slightly larger increase, according to preliminary data, was recorded in January 2021, to 6.5% (5.5% a year earlier), but the situation is still not bad. Many of us value full-time employment more in uncertain times. Those who wanted to change something in their professional life from the new year and try their hand at entrepreneurship may postpone bold decisions – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses, it is negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Fewer new businesses than in 2019
Fewer new businesses than in 2019 In 2020, there was less activity than in the previous year In the whole of 2020, 262.9 thousand businesses were established, 146.2 thousand were closed, 163.3 thousand were resumed and 250.1 thousand were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, it was 309.9 thousand (new), 173.3 (closed), 160.3 (resumed) and 306.9 thousand (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data.In December last year, 1306 more businesses were established than closed. The InfoCredit index recorded a significant drop, but its value remained positive (in November 2020 it was + 7263 points). In the last month of 2020, 19.8 thousand businesses were opened, 18.5 thousand were closed.There were again significantly more people suspending their business in December 2020 than resuming it. The InfoCredit index has thus deepened its decline to -21,834 points. It is the lowest since March 2020, when entrepreneurs, under the influence of uncertainty, began to submit applications for suspension en masse. However, there was no such anxiety as in March. There was also no assault on the CEIDG system. The last weeks of December did not bring a revival in applications submitted to the CEDG. Although as many as 29,905 activities were suspended compared to 8,071 resumed, the situation was similar to the end of 2019. At that time, 10,312 activities were resumed and 37,381 were suspended. The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of renewals to suspensions at the end of 2019, was worth -27,069 points, which is much lower than after November 2020. Usually, at the end of the year, there are much more suspensions than renewals. Compared to November, we noted a significant increase in business closures. In December 2020, there were 18,514 such applications compared to 11,086 a month earlier. There were almost as many new businesses as a month earlier (19,820 compared to 19,493 in November 2020). This is also a seasonal effect. The end of the year favors suspensions and closures, especially with such uncertainty and restrictions as today. – The last quarter brought a significant drop in activity in submitting applications to CEIDG and this is the only worrying signal from micro-entrepreneurs. This was visible in each category. In the first three quarters of this year, Poles were much more willing to take matters into their own hands. Those who saw their chance started new businesses, and there were much fewer definitely closed businesses than new ones. Those who did not see the chance suspended or closed their businesses. Now they are stuck in limbo waiting for better times – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director of the analytical company InfoCredit. According to Jerzy Wonka, the second wave of the epidemic and the increase in cases in the autumn could have influenced the decisions of micro-entrepreneurs. For now, when restrictions in many industries are maintained and extended, and revenues are significantly lower, it is difficult to be optimistic and start or suspend a business. Hence – perhaps – the lower number of applications than at the end of 2019. The second issue is the much better situation on the labor market than it might have seemed six months earlier. The registered unemployment rate in December was 6.2% – according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Development, Labor and Technology. At the beginning of 2020, it was 5.5%. The economic collapse did not result in a significant increase in unemployment. – Many people still believe that a full-time job in difficult, unstable times is a better idea than starting a business on your own. This is also the reason why many people could have postponed starting a business in the last quarter of 2020 – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl