The largest outflow from JDG in history
The largest outflow from JDG in history InfoCredit Microentrepreneurship Index Nearly 388,000 sole proprietorships (SMEs) were suspended in 2025. Another record of weakness was set – the fourth in a row. In 2024, we recorded 375,700 suspensions. 196,700 SMEs were closed, with only 2023 seeing a worse situation. At the end of last year, the negative trend accelerated. Even after November, it seemed that further records would not be broken. The InfoCredit Business Activity Index fell to -46.76 thousand points quarterly after December, a level never seen before. Monthly, the index is seeking a bottom, meaning it’s close to the levels seen when the pandemic broke out or when the full-scale war in Ukraine began. This means that the basic form of entrepreneurship in Poland, i.e. self-employed individuals, is experiencing the greatest crisis in its history. The end of last year saw a significant shift away from self-employed workers (JDG). In the last three days of December alone, nearly 15,000 businesses were suspended, and nearly 10,500 were closed. For comparison, 2,933 new JDGs were registered during that time. Throughout December, 64,600 businesses were suspended and closed, while 33,700 were opened and reopened. This hasn’t happened yet, resulting in further lows in the JDG InfoCredit index. What happened at the end of last year is certainly related to the confusion that accompanied attempts to regulate the labor market. As a reminder, at the beginning of December, the prevailing message was that officials from the National Labor Inspectorate would be able to administratively reclassify a B2B or civil law contract as a full-time job if the actual method of service provision was consistent with an employment relationship. These powers were gradually limited. Initially, such decisions were to be enforced immediately. Later, this procedure was relaxed, giving the parties room to adjust their cooperation model. In any case, until the end of last year, the message was clear: apparent self-employment, meaning, for example, one self-employed person (JDG) for one client, was risky. This could have influenced the decisions of those working in this mode. The market reacted not to the final shape of the regulations, but to the uncertainty and lack of a clear direction for change. The new year brought a turnaround. The draft bill amending the Act on the National Labor Inspectorate and certain other acts, adopted on December 4th by the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers, was met with strong criticism from the Prime Minister. He believed that officials were gaining too much power. On January 28th, Money.pl obtained details of the new proposal, developed by the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy and the Ministry of Justice. The inspector will still be able to issue an administrative decision to transform disputed contracts, but it will be immediately appealable to the court (instead of first to the Chief Labor Inspector). In such a case, its execution will be suspended until a final ruling is issued. This is only the beginning of the legislative process, but both ministries are pressing for time. The provisions strengthening the role of the National Labor Inspectorate are one of the milestones of the National Labor Inspectorate (KPO). This means there isn’t much time to work on them. Employers will be pressured to restructure contentious B2B contracts, and the junk contracts will remain. The situation on the labor market further complicates matters. Unemployment rose to 5.7% in December 2025 (5.1% the year before). Year-on-year, the number of registered unemployed increased by 101,700. The dynamics of new registrations are also increasingly alarming – 93,600 people were granted unemployment status in December, which, given the persistently high level of layoffs, demonstrates a steady influx of job seekers. 2025 also proved to be a record year for collective layoffs – over 97,600 were reported to labor offices, the highest number since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and almost three times as many as in 2024. At the same time, there is a stark disproportion between the number of suspended and terminated self-employed workers in December 2025 and the number of new and reopened businesses (64,600 vs. 33,700). This has not yet translated directly into unemployment statistics – most people leaving self-employed workers have alternative sources of income or other career plans. However, the scale of these movements demonstrates a profound realignment in the labor market and entrepreneurship. On the other hand, the market is operating under growing regulatory and social pressure related to attempts to “civilize” forms of employment and limit bogus self-employment. This is changing the calculations for both employees and employers. What does this mean for the self-employed worker market in the coming quarters? InfoCredit Forecasts 1. The outflow of “full-time” self-employment will slow, but not stop. The government’s withdrawal from the administrative transformation of contracts by the National Labor Inspectorate (PIP) reduces regulatory pressure but does not address the main problem: uncertainty. Some people will remain with self-employed individuals (DDs), but a business model that effectively resembles a full-time position will gradually lose its raison d’être. 2. The DDs market will undergo another year of selection. After a record-breaking 2025, the pace of business closures and suspensions may slow, but the overall number of DDs will remain under pressure. Companies established primarily for cost reasons will disappear from the market, while businesses with a viable business model have a chance to survive. 3. The structure of DDs will change faster than their number. The share of design and specialist companies (IT, consulting, engineering, creative) will increase, while self-employment in simple, subordinated roles that are easily replaced by employment or automation will decrease. 4. The “one sole proprietorship – one client” model will remain an area of increased risk. Even with a relaxation of legislative announcements, regulatory uncertainty and regulatory practices will reward effective business independence. Entrepreneurs will be more likely to build client portfolios or change the scope of their cooperation. 5. The InfoCredit JDG Index will remain negative, but the scale of declines may diminish. After a historically weak
We are changing the address, welcome to Czackiego!
We are changing the address, welcome to Czackiego! After more than 12 years at Foksal 10, we are closing an important chapter. It was here that we developed our team, built client relationships, and, step by step, strengthened InfoCredit’s position as an expert in transfer pricing. Foksal remains in our history, but we are moving forward. Starting next year, we invite you to our new headquarters – ul. Czackiego 7/9/11 in Warsaw. It’s just a short walk from our current office, but for us, it’s a symbolic step closer to where many key business decisions are made. It’s right next to the Ministry of Finance. The new space offers us more opportunities for collaboration, meetings, and project work. We want it to be a place where knowledge, practice, and experience meet with comfort and positive energy. The address is changing. Our values – reliability, professionalism, and a partnership approach to clients – remain unchanged. New address: InfoCreditul. Czackiego 7/9/1100-043 Warsaw Other contact details remain unchanged. See you in our new location – closer to the heart of what matters to your business. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
InfoCredit Index
InfoCredit Index The JDG market is slowing down, but the full-time job is winning The sole proprietorship (SME) market in Poland is changing. We are entering a period in which sole proprietorships will primarily be run by those who genuinely want to run a business, not those who have previously been forced into it by the system. Data for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 show that SMEs continue to shrink. In the third quarter of 2025, the number of new and reopened businesses (118,000) was significantly lower than the sum of suspensions and closures (148,000), which translated into a negative value of the InfoCredit SME index of -30,000 points. In the fourth quarter (through November), the situation remained similar: positive activity reached 76,800 and negative activity reached 92,700, implying an index value of -15,800. Remember, these are post-November data. The end of December saw a complete reversal and a significant spike in suspensions. Therefore, the index value at the end of the year could be much lower. The trend is clear – more people are abandoning their businesses than starting them. And this trend is slowly deepening. Even one-off, seasonal, strong positive spikes are no longer present. For example, after the second quarter of 2022, the JDG IC index, calculated quarterly, was worth over 17,000 points (meaning 17,000 more new and reopened businesses than closed and suspended businesses). Since then, it has been showing a seasonal increase, slightly above 0. This all coincides with an exceptionally good situation on the labor market. Unemployment has remained low and stable for months (May: 5.0%, June: 5.1%, July: 5.4%, August: 5.5%, September–October: 5.6%). With near-full employment, full-time employment becomes more attractive than the B2B model: it offers stability, lower risk, and no need to finance ongoing contributions. For many people working with a single client, it’s a return to a simple choice: “full-time or nothing.” Additionally, a regulatory factor is looming. New powers for the National Labor Inspectorate, planned for 2026, will allow inspectors to administratively reclassify B2B or civil law contracts as full-time employment contracts if the actual method of service provision corresponds to an employment relationship. Although the amendments will no longer result in immediate enforcement, and the parties will have room to adjust their cooperation model, for many companies it is a signal that false self-employment is risky. All this indicates a growing advantage of full-time employment over B2B, particularly in industries where self-employment has served as a substitute for an employment contract. In 2026, we can expect a further decline in the number of self-employed individuals (SDUs) based on 1:1 collaboration with the employer and a gradual reshaping of the market towards companies providing services to several or many clients. What does this mean from the perspective of different groups? Entrepreneurs and micro-entrepreneurs – Greater uncertainty regarding B2B cooperation. It will be necessary to clearly document an employee’s independence or redesign their job descriptions.– Rising costs of recruiting specialists. Higher-skilled individuals, welcomed by employers, will more often prefer full-time employment.– The need for more flexible business models. This could include combining full-time positions with performance-based contracts, project collaboration, and micro-enterprise consortia.– Greater selectivity in starting a business. Self-employed individuals will primarily start businesses with a genuine desire to run a business, rather than full-time B2B employees. People working on self-employed/B2B contracts – Lower profitability of self-employment in a 1:1 relationship with an employer.– Higher risk of PIP inspections and the need to adapt the work model.– The attractiveness of full-time employment is growing. Stability, predictability, vacation time, and ZUS contributions are on the employer’s side.– For IT specialists and creative industries, the B2B model will remain popular, but more task-based, flexible, and with multiple clients. InfoCredit Forecasts What could change in the self-employed (JDG) market in 2026? – A further decline in the number of self-employed (JDG), formerly “full-time” employees. National Labor Inspectorate (PIP) regulations and low unemployment will drive businesses operating solely to reduce employer costs and increase net income out of the market.– The total number of self-employed (JDG) may decline, but the number of active companies actually operating will remain stable.– A shift in the structure of the JDG market. There will be more service companies operating on a project-based basis (IT, consulting, creative, engineering), and fewer self-employed individuals in logistics, sales, administration, and basic services.– The growing importance of relationships and collaboration with multiple clients. The “one company, one client” model will be subject to the risk of audits. Entrepreneurs will begin to build client portfolios to realistically justify their operations.– The trend will continue. Unless new tax relief or simplifications are introduced, the InfoCredit index will remain negative in 2026, though likely at a slower rate of decline than in 2025. 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The importance of ratings in tenders is growing
The importance of ratings in tenders is growing Company ratings play a key role in Scandinavian tenders. More and more companies are updating their data with InfoCredit to increase their credibility and chances of winning contracts. In Scandinavian countries, ratings assigned by credit intelligence agencies and analytical firms have played a key role in assessing the credibility of companies for years. They directly influence tender decisions, assess the financial stability of the bidder, and determine their creditworthiness. It is based on ratings that contracting authorities assess whether a company is capable of maintaining long-term cooperation – even after the FEED phase. Tender documentation increasingly often includes data sources from which financial statements and business information should be sourced. These include entities InfoCredit collaborates with, such as CreditSave, but also InfoCredit itself as a provider of verified business information. Transparency Pays Off – Not Just Abroad For bidders, this means one thing: complete and reliable data is now a key element in building a competitive advantage. This is particularly important in Scandinavia, where verifying company profiles in independent databases is standard practice, but the importance of ratings is also growing in Poland. More and more companies are contacting InfoCredit to supplement or verify their data and improve their ratings in rating systems. Up-to-date and consistent information significantly increases the transparency of a company’s profile, which translates into better perception by foreign contractors and a greater chance of securing contracts. How can we help? For years, InfoCredit has been supporting companies in building credibility in international markets. We offer: verification of automatic ratings and trade credit amounts preparation of up-to-date financial statements and analyses, support in improving the transparency of information used in ratings, cooperation with foreign analytical partners, and for those who have already won tenders and established local plants there – support in tax settlements. Are you planning to expand into Nordic markets? If you’re bidding on Scandinavian tenders or preparing to collaborate with partners from Norway, Sweden, Denmark, or Finland, ensure your company data is complete, up-to-date, and visible in the appropriate sources. Contact InfoCredit. We’ll help you strengthen your credibility and increase your chances of success in the demanding Scandinavian markets. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
Quick Report for local government units, central and local administration
Quick Report for local government units, central and local administration InfoCredit, meeting the growing needs of local government units, central and local administration (hereinafter referred to as LGUs), has prepared a special test access option to the website www.infocredit-online.pl. The purpose of the test is to enable LGUs to verify the functionality and usability of the website www.infocredit-online.pl in terms of verifying the credibility of potential LGU contractors. Test access is free and does not require placing any order with InfoCredit. As part of the test, each registered LGU will receive a test account, which includes access to two Quick Reports on selected domestic companies. The reports must be downloaded within three months of the test account creation date. To create a test account, CLICK HERE After the trial period and if local government units express interest in using our service on a commercial basis, they can take advantage of a special, dedicated offer: JST Price List – Quick Report and Quick International Packages Tabela Pakietów Pakiet A Pakiet B Pakiet C ilość Quick International 2 5 10 ilość Quick Report 5 15 40 koszt jednego pakietu 190 zł 430 zł 860 zł koszt pięciu pakietów 855 zł 1 935 zł 3 870 zł każdy kolejny pakiet 160 zł 380 zł 750 zł Net prices, 23% VAT should be added Terms of the offer The offer is addressed exclusively to local government units, central and local administration. Price list from October 24, 2025, valid until revoked or until a new price list is published by the local government unit. The purchaser of each package will receive a corresponding number of access points on the infocredit-online.pl website. The points are valid for one year and cannot be extended. The content of domestic Quick Reports in the Premium version for commercial law companies is presented in the table below. The content of Quick Reports for sole proprietorships and civil partnerships is significantly limited due to applicable reporting and data protection regulations. The content of Quick International depends on local reporting and data protection regulations. Po okresie testowym zamówienie pakietu raportów A, B lub C należy złożyć za pomocą formularza zamówienia https://infocredit.pl/oferta/formularz-promocyjny/ Zawartość Quick Report dla spółek prawa handlowego Premium Informacje podstawowe i teleadresowe (nazwa, rok powstania, KRS, NIP, REGON, informacja o upadłości lub likwidacji, dane teleadresowe, www, e-mail, PKD) ✔ Rating ✔ Kredyt maksymalny ✔ Wskaźnik Ryzyka Bankructwa (Nowość!) ✔ Członkowie zarządu i rady nadzorczej ✔ Analiza Firma na tle branży ✔ Udziałowcy bezpośredni ✔ Pełna struktura udziałowców i firmy zależne ✔ Bank firmy ✔ Dane o wielkości zatrudnienia ✔ Rachunek zysków i strat i bilans – 6 lat ✔ Rachunek przepływów pieniężnych – 6 lat ✔ Audytor ✔ Projekty unijne ✔ Flota samochodowa ✔ Uczestnictwo w krajowych imprezach targowych ✔ Informacje o imporcie i eksporcie (do 2016) ✔ Biała Lista Podatników VAT (Status i rachunki bankowe) (Nowość!) ✔ Beneficjenci Rzeczywiści (Nowość!) ✔ Oddziały firmy (Nowość!) ✔ Możliwość eksportu raportu do pdf ✔ Możliwość eksportu raportu do xls ✔ Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
What is it like at the Polish seaside?
What is it like at the Polish seaside? Did you know that… Rewal is a Polish municipality that experiences the fastest economic recovery in spring, only to fall asleep the fastest at the end of the summer holidays. The data on sole proprietorships (SMEs) is accurate. The 2025 summer season was highly unusual. The weather had a significant impact on seaside attendance and the tourism industry’s performance. However, a relatively warm September proved to be a boost for many entrepreneurs who decided not to suspend their businesses at the end of the summer holidays. Rewal is one of the municipalities in Poland with the highest number of business closures per 1,000 residents in the spring. In this municipality, the InfoCredit index is approaching +50 points before the season, meaning that one SME for every 20 residents is suspended or reopened. In the fall, the reverse is true. After August, the indices for typically tourist-oriented, coastal municipalities plummet, reaching values similar to those in spring, but in the red. For example, in Rewal, one SME for every 20 residents is suspended. But… the weather determines the final score. Coastal municipalities have seen smaller declines after August this year than last year. Rewal remains the leader in the negative ranking, but its score improved from -45 points in 2024 to -35 points in 2025. Mielno remained practically at last year’s level (-29 points), while Władysławowo and Łeba saw a slight improvement. Only Krynica Morska recorded a decline, dropping from -13.7 points to -15.5 points. New municipalities also appeared on the list – including Ustronie Morskie, Krokowa, Solina, and Jastarnia – but their declines are much smaller, ranging from -4 to -9 points. This signals that, from a broader perspective, local tourism economies did not experience as abrupt an “autumn slumber” as in 2024. Why? This summer was unusual. July was cool and rainy, leading to a wave of cancellations and short-term vacations. September, however, turned out to be exceptionally warm and sunny. As a result, many tourists postponed their vacations. This shift in tourist flow meant that establishments and guesthouses didn’t close as abruptly at the end of August as they did the previous year. The conclusions from this year’s data are clear: seasonality still determines the economy of tourist municipalities, but unusual weather conditions can significantly mitigate the scale of declines. This demonstrates how dependent local businesses are not only on the holiday calendar, but also on the weather and tourists’ willingness to plan their trips flexibly. There are 2,477 municipalities in Poland. We monitor them all. Want to know what’s happening in your voivodeship, district, or municipality? Contact us: infocredit@infocredit.pl or media@infocredit.pl. We look forward to hearing from you. How we calculate the InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and reopened businesses to closed and suspended businesses. A positive index means that more businesses were started and reopened than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. A negative index value indicates a retreat from this form of economic activity. The further the index falls, the more small businesses are going out of business (permanently or temporarily). We publish the index quarterly (after each quarter) and monthly. For individual municipalities, the index value is calculated per 1,000 inhabitants. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
Quick Report and Quick International packagessuper promotion!
Quick Report and Quick International packagessuper promotion! Promotional Price List – Quick Report and Quick International Packages Tabela Pakietów Pakiet A Pakiet B Pakiet C ilość Quick International 2 5 10 ilość Quick Report 5 15 40 koszt jednego pakietu 190 zł 430 zł 860 zł Cena przed ogłoszeniem promocji QI x 2 =198 QR x 5 = 250 zł Razem: 448 zł QI x 5 = 475 zł QR x 15 = 675 zł Razem: 1150 zł QI x 10 = 900 zł QR x 40 = 1600 zł Razem: 2500 zł koszt pięciu pakietów 855 zł 1 935 zł 3 870 zł każdy kolejny pakiet 160 zł 380 zł 750 zł Net prices, 23% VAT should be added Warunki promocji The promotion is addressed only to Polish business entities. The promotion runs from September 16, 2025 until further notice. The purchaser of each package will receive a corresponding number of access points on the infocredit-online.pl website. The points are valid for one year and cannot be extended. The content of the Premium domestic Quick Reports for commercial law companies included in the promotion is presented in the table below. The content of Quick Reports for sole proprietorships and civil partnerships is significantly limited due to applicable reporting regulations and the GDPR. The content of Quick International reports depends on local reporting and personal data protection regulations. To order promotional package A, B or C, please use the order form – link below. Zawartość Quick Report dla spółek prawa handlowego Premium Informacje podstawowe i teleadresowe (nazwa, rok powstania, KRS, NIP, REGON, informacja o upadłości lub likwidacji, dane teleadresowe, www, e-mail, PKD) ✔ Rating ✔ Kredyt maksymalny ✔ Wskaźnik Ryzyka Bankructwa (Nowość!) ✔ Członkowie zarządu i rady nadzorczej ✔ Analiza Firma na tle branży ✔ Udziałowcy bezpośredni ✔ Pełna struktura udziałowców i firmy zależne ✔ Bank firmy ✔ Dane o wielkości zatrudnienia ✔ Rachunek zysków i strat i bilans – 6 lat ✔ Rachunek przepływów pieniężnych – 6 lat ✔ Audytor ✔ Projekty unijne ✔ Flota samochodowa ✔ Uczestnictwo w krajowych imprezach targowych ✔ Informacje o imporcie i eksporcie (do 2016) ✔ Biała Lista Podatników VAT (Status i rachunki bankowe) (Nowość!) ✔ Beneficjenci Rzeczywiści (Nowość!) ✔ Oddziały firmy (Nowość!) ✔ Możliwość eksportu raportu do pdf ✔ Możliwość eksportu raportu do xls ✔ Złóż zamówienie Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
Benchmarking under the pressure of regulatory, digital and GDPR changes
Benchmarking under the pressure of regulatory, digital and GDPR changes Technology supports analytical processes, but its pace of development often outpaces the law. Maintaining prudence and regulatory compliance remains key. This is one of the key conclusions from the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Transfer Pricing Center: Tax Compliance. Entities Connected by a Network of Regulations in the Era of Digital Revolution. InfoCredit has supported the Transfer Pricing Center from the very beginning. Therefore, it was natural for us to become involved in the 10th edition of the conference as a partner. Our experts had the honor of co-chairing one of the key discussion panels. In the panel titled “Benchmarking under the Pressure of Regulatory, Digital, and GDPR Changes,” our experts – Agnieszka Figiel and Grzegorz Garbarczyk – together with Ewa Kurowska-Tober from DLA Piper, addressed the challenges posed by automation and artificial intelligence in analytical processes. Key takeaways from the discussion: Modern automation and AI tools can significantly improve the preparation of comparative analyses, but they also involve risks in the area of data protection. Sensitive and personal data must be processed in accordance with regulations – in the case of financial institutions supervised by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, only within the EU. The ambiguity and lack of compatibility of regulations (e.g. GDPR versus other legal obligations) poses difficult dilemmas for entrepreneurs. Even in the case of publicly available data, the purpose of processing and compliance with regulations are important. Experts unanimously emphasized that technology supports analytical processes, but its pace of development often outpaces the law. Maintaining caution and regulatory compliance remains key. InfoCredit implements modern solutions while simultaneously making every effort to ensure data is secure and processed in accordance with the highest standards. For InfoCredit, participating in the conference provided an opportunity to exchange experiences and discuss the future of transfer pricing in the era of digital transformation. See you at the next CCT Conference and soon at the 21st Transfer Pricing Forum. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
JDG: we rather collapse than expand
JDG: we rather collapse than expand Times are changing, the debate over health insurance premiums has been raging for over 20 months, and the statistics remain weak. In the first half of this year, trends in sole proprietorships (SMEs) remained unchanged. The data are even worse than in recent years. SMEs continue to shrink rather than expand. In the first half of 2025, 146,975 new businesses were registered in Poland, and 99,369 were reopened. However, as many as 176,231 self-employed entities were suspended, and 98,218 were closed. Therefore, closed and suspended businesses still outnumber new and reopened businesses (274,449 vs. 246,344). The second quarter of this year was, as usual, better than the first. This is due to seasonality – in the spring, businesses open and resume tourism-related businesses. In April, May, and June, coastal municipalities are usually among the leading economically “recovering” communities. After June, the quarterly InfoCredit index rose to -374 points from -27,731 points after the first quarter of 2025 (when its value is above 0, it means that more businesses were opened and reopened than suspended and closed). The problem is that last year at this time, the index was worth +1,440 points. The situation is getting worse year by year. In the first quarter of this year, the data were also worse than in the same period of 2024. 118,822 self-employed units (UDGs) were reopened and established, and 146,553 were closed and established, compared to 120,599 and 147,418 a year earlier. The quarterly calculated IC index was therefore worth -27,731 points (after Q1 2024, it was -26,819 points). The reasons remain the same – rising business costs, regulatory uncertainty, and the decline in the profitability of small businesses. Given the current labor market, full-time employment is becoming more attractive than self-employment. Furthermore, in May, the chance for relief for entrepreneurs was blocked – the president vetoed the bill lowering health insurance contributions. For many sole proprietors, this signals that real changes are unlikely for now. This is especially true given that there was no consensus on a contribution reduction, even at dinner. The disturbing trend is even more evident in the monthly InfoCredit index. After a slight recovery in March, April, and May, the index declined again in June. At the end of June 2025, it stood at -6,911 points, compared to -5,433 points a year earlier. “The data clearly shows that, unfortunately, the high number of business suspensions and closures continues. Significantly, significant increases in this area occurred not in 2020 or 2021, when we were faced with restrictions resulting from the pandemic, but later – essentially from 2022, i.e., during the era of new tax rules established by the infamous Polish Deal and during a period of – at least temporarily – very high inflation,” says Jakub Bińkowski, board member of the Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers. According to Jakub Bińkowski, the deteriorating condition of the smallest businesses is caused by growing cost pressure – generated by increases in contributions (health insurance contributions after the Polish Deal, the permanent mechanism for indexing ZUS contributions), as well as the rising costs of both semi-finished products, products, and raw materials used to run the business, as well as employment (dynamic wage growth, further stimulated by the rapidly rising minimum wage until 2024). In this context, the presidential veto of the government’s proposed reduction in healthcare contributions for businesses was indeed disappointing. “Entrepreneurs are not responsible for the underfunding of the healthcare system – it seems this was forgotten when deciding on the fate of that bill,” summarizes a board member of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. How We Calculate the InfoCredit Business Activity Index Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and reopened businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were started and reopened than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index shows values below zero, it indicates a retreat from this form of economic activity. The further the index falls, the more small businesses are going out of business (permanently or temporarily). We publish the index quarterly (after each quarter) and monthly. For individual municipalities, the index value is calculated per 1,000 inhabitants. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl
The results of Polish companies under scrutiny
The results of Polish companies under scrutiny 2023 was the first year in seven years when Polish commercial law companies experienced significant slowdown. Revenues continued to grow (by over PLN 348 billion) and total assets (+PLN 448 billion). Equity also increased, which may indicate attempts to strengthen financial stability. However, despite the expansion in the scale of operations, the financial result deteriorated. We recorded a significant decline in profitability, the largest since 2017. At InfoCredit, we analyzed the results of over 360,000 commercial law companies operating in Poland. We know (almost) everything about them. Both average gross profit and average net profit decreased compared to 2022. Profitability indicators – ROE, ROA, and ROS – also declined, indicating declining operational efficiency. Despite this, some entities invested in digitalization and sustainable development, trying to adapt to the new reality. The situation gradually improved in subsequent quarters. As a reminder, the first three months saw a 1.2% decline in GDP. The last quarter was the best (1.9% growth). Inflation was a real nightmare for entrepreneurs – at the beginning of the year, it stood at 16.6% year-on-year. It’s worth noting that the turbulence of 2023 didn’t translate into employment – employment was at its highest in 2022 and 2023 (an average of 46 people per surveyed company, compared to 39 in 2017). Let’s take a closer look at the detailed data for the surveyed sample of Polish companies. Average equity capital in 2023 was PLN 7.83 million, increasing by PLN 1 million year-on-year. In previous years, the best result was recorded in 2021 (PLN 7.33 million). Average assets increased significantly in 2023. Since 2019, we have seen increasingly rapid growth across the sample of companies surveyed. However, average intangible assets per company remained relatively unchanged. In 2017 and 2018, they remained at PLN 0.46-0.47 million, falling to PLN 0.38 million in 2020 and recovering to PLN 0.41 million in 2023. Is it good? It depends. Let’s move on to profitability. After some stabilization in 2017-2019, we saw significant growth in 2020-2022. And a significant reversal in 2023. Average gross profit fell from PLN 3.43 million to PLN 2.96 million. Net profit fell from PLN 2.76 million to PLN 2.38 million. It’s worth noting that in 2017, these figures were PLN 1.5 million and PLN 1.22 million, respectively. Interestingly, between 2017 and 2022, the group of companies examined recorded significant increases in ROE, ROA, and ROS. In this regard, we didn’t experience any major turbulence in 2020, the first year we faced the effects of the pandemic and restrictions. The outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine did not significantly impact these indicators, despite accelerating inflation and fluctuations in the commodity market. But – in 2023, the effects of the turmoil and economic slowdown were already strongly felt. In summary, rising costs, wage pressure, and persistent inflation have reduced businesses’ ability to generate profits despite rising revenues. SMEs were hit particularly hard, having limited opportunities to pass on costs to customers. High interest rates limited access to financing, exacerbating liquidity problems. These problems were felt not only by commercial law companies but also by sole proprietorships. As a reminder, in 2023, 372,500 sole proprietorships were suspended, compared to 347,400 the previous year. A staggering 198,200 businesses were terminated – the highest number since 2014. What was 2024 like? Has there been a rebound? We will report on this soon once companies have fulfilled their reporting obligations. Want to know more? Interested in results in specific industries? Contact us and request an analysis: media@infocredit.pl. Poprzedni artykuł Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@infocredit.pl