The sole proprietorship (SME) market in Poland is changing. We are entering a period in which sole proprietorships will primarily be run by those who genuinely want to run a business, not those who have previously been forced into it by the system.

Data for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 show that SMEs continue to shrink. In the third quarter of 2025, the number of new and reopened businesses (118,000) was significantly lower than the sum of suspensions and closures (148,000), which translated into a negative value of the InfoCredit SME index of -30,000 points.

In the fourth quarter (through November), the situation remained similar: positive activity reached 76,800 and negative activity reached 92,700, implying an index value of -15,800. Remember, these are post-November data. The end of December saw a complete reversal and a significant spike in suspensions. Therefore, the index value at the end of the year could be much lower.

The trend is clear – more people are abandoning their businesses than starting them. And this trend is slowly deepening. Even one-off, seasonal, strong positive spikes are no longer present. For example, after the second quarter of 2022, the JDG IC index, calculated quarterly, was worth over 17,000 points (meaning 17,000 more new and reopened businesses than closed and suspended businesses). Since then, it has been showing a seasonal increase, slightly above 0.

This all coincides with an exceptionally good situation on the labor market. Unemployment has remained low and stable for months (May: 5.0%, June: 5.1%, July: 5.4%, August: 5.5%, September–October: 5.6%). With near-full employment, full-time employment becomes more attractive than the B2B model: it offers stability, lower risk, and no need to finance ongoing contributions. For many people working with a single client, it’s a return to a simple choice: “full-time or nothing.”

Additionally, a regulatory factor is looming. New powers for the National Labor Inspectorate, planned for 2026, will allow inspectors to administratively reclassify B2B or civil law contracts as full-time employment contracts if the actual method of service provision corresponds to an employment relationship. Although the amendments will no longer result in immediate enforcement, and the parties will have room to adjust their cooperation model, for many companies it is a signal that false self-employment is risky.

All this indicates a growing advantage of full-time employment over B2B, particularly in industries where self-employment has served as a substitute for an employment contract. In 2026, we can expect a further decline in the number of self-employed individuals (SDUs) based on 1:1 collaboration with the employer and a gradual reshaping of the market towards companies providing services to several or many clients.

What does this mean from the perspective of different groups?

Entrepreneurs and micro-entrepreneurs

– Greater uncertainty regarding B2B cooperation. It will be necessary to clearly document an employee’s independence or redesign their job descriptions.
– Rising costs of recruiting specialists. Higher-skilled individuals, welcomed by employers, will more often prefer full-time employment.
– The need for more flexible business models. This could include combining full-time positions with performance-based contracts, project collaboration, and micro-enterprise consortia.
– Greater selectivity in starting a business. Self-employed individuals will primarily start businesses with a genuine desire to run a business, rather than full-time B2B employees.

People working on self-employed/B2B contracts

– Lower profitability of self-employment in a 1:1 relationship with an employer.
– Higher risk of PIP inspections and the need to adapt the work model.
– The attractiveness of full-time employment is growing. Stability, predictability, vacation time, and ZUS contributions are on the employer’s side.
– For IT specialists and creative industries, the B2B model will remain popular, but more task-based, flexible, and with multiple clients.

InfoCredit Forecasts

What could change in the self-employed (JDG) market in 2026?

– A further decline in the number of self-employed (JDG), formerly “full-time” employees. National Labor Inspectorate (PIP) regulations and low unemployment will drive businesses operating solely to reduce employer costs and increase net income out of the market.
– The total number of self-employed (JDG) may decline, but the number of active companies actually operating will remain stable.
– A shift in the structure of the JDG market. There will be more service companies operating on a project-based basis (IT, consulting, creative, engineering), and fewer self-employed individuals in logistics, sales, administration, and basic services.
– The growing importance of relationships and collaboration with multiple clients. The “one company, one client” model will be subject to the risk of audits. Entrepreneurs will begin to build client portfolios to realistically justify their operations.
– The trend will continue. Unless new tax relief or simplifications are introduced, the InfoCredit index will remain negative in 2026, though likely at a slower rate of decline than in 2025.