Thaw in micro-enterprises
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index
After several months of stagnation, the number of new business activities in March 2021 increased to 26,229 from 21,285 in February (23,835 in January this year). In March 2020, 18,291 were recorded – according to data flowing into CEIDG.
The entire first quarter of 2021 in business activities – thanks to a fairly good March – also looks promising. There were more new activities than a year ago. We also recorded significantly fewer suspensions (61,281 in Q1 2021 compared to 94,861 a year earlier).
InfoCredit microenterprise indices went up significantly after March. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed activities increased
to +10,171 points from +7,678, and the ratio of resumed to suspended increased to
-6,133 points from -8,197 points.
The last month of Q1 2021 significantly changed the picture of micro-entrepreneurship that had been emerging since the autumn of last year. Poles were more willing to start new businesses, and there were significantly more resumptions month-on-month (m/m) and year-on-year (y/y). Suspensions remained unchanged m/m and significantly decreased y/y. What does this mean?
– The March data is quite optimistic, but it is difficult to talk about a change in trend, considering the circumstances, i.e. the third wave of the epidemic. On the one hand, small businesses are certainly gradually adapting to the new reality. I do not want to say that it is becoming ordinary. Entrepreneurs are increasingly aware that things will not be the same as before COVID and are more and more willing to make strategic decisions. On the other hand, caution is still visible. That is why in March we have not yet noted any major positive changes, although it should be emphasized that there has not been such panic in suspensions as last year for 11 months – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit.
Let us recall – last year, the end of the first quarter brought a wave of suspensions of activities due to the first restrictions and growing uncertainty. In March 2020 alone, 48,624 activities were suspended, and 28,432 in the last 10 days alone. Meanwhile, in the whole of March 2021, we recorded 18,652 suspensions.
– It is also encouraging that in the entire first quarter we recorded 71,349 new businesses, compared to 69,517 a year earlier. The number of closures and reopenings is comparable. There are significantly fewer suspensions than a year ago. And this is not the effect of pushing full-time employees into business activity, taking into account the latest preliminary data from the labor market. The unemployment rate in March was 6.4% and was slightly lower than in February. However, we will be able to get a full picture of what is happening in microentrepreneurship after the second quarter of 2021, when the data will be relatively comparable. We will be able to compare the entire 3 months of the 2021 epidemic with the entire 3 months of the 2020 epidemic – adds Jerzy Wonka.
How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in microentrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by Poland’s oldest company analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses, it is negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses.
