Small business on hold
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
- In 2022, CEIDG received a total of over one million applications for the establishment, resumption, suspension and termination of business activity. This is the highest in 9 years, i.e. since 2014.
- The vast majority of applications, however, concerned the suspension of business activity. There were as many as 347.3 thousand of them. This is a record.
- Last year, 193.2 thousand businesses were terminated – the highest since 2014.
- The InfoCredit business activity index calculated quarterly fell to the value from the turn of 2021 and 2022. Year-on-year and taking into account seasonality, it is sinking lower and lower.
After two years of a significant decline in the activity of Poles due to the epidemic, last year we finally noted a significant increase in the number of applications submitted to CEIDG. In 2020 and 2021, there were almost 850 and 891 thousand, respectively. Last year, exactly 1,003,653. This would be a reason for optimism if most of them concerned new businesses. Unfortunately, this is not the case. There were 463.1 thousand new and resumed businesses in total, 540.6 thousand terminated and suspended.
The number of applications to suspend business activity in particular is worrying, as many as 347.3 thousand. This is a record result. There were 193.2 thousand terminated businesses, the highest number since 2014 and 2013, when there were 208.2 thousand and 235.6 thousand, respectively.
The number of applications for suspensions did not increase abruptly at the end of the year, but gradually, throughout the year. In the first half of the year, there were 161.3 thousand (in the first half of 2021, 115.6 thousand). In the second half, 186.1 thousand, compared to 162.7 thousand in the same period of 2021. In the fourth quarter, 97.7 thousand suspensions were recorded, compared to 90 thousand in the last three months of 2021. Only December 2022 was calmer. 39.6 thousand businesses were suspended then, compared to 42.4 thousand in December 2021. However, at the end of 2021, we noted a significant increase in closed and suspended businesses, because entrepreneurs did not like the chaos and ambiguity associated with the Polish Deal.
The last three years are difficult to compare, because they brought a significant increase in uncertainty and events that we had not seen before. 2020 and 2021 are a time of epidemics and restrictions. The turn of 2021 and 2022 brought us the Polish Deal, huge confusion in tax regulations and rising inflation. The last 11 months have already seen a huge increase in the costs of running a business, not only due to additional tax and contribution burdens, but above all due to the sudden increase in the prices of raw materials and energy. That is why first, in 2020 and 2021, we observed a decrease in activity in submitting applications to CEIDG, and now we are seeing more and more of them. The number of closures is not increasing so quickly, because it is easier to go into a state of suspension, to observe the situation and postpone the decision.
The situation in the general statistics is somewhat saved by the increase in the number of established and resumed businesses. In 2022, we recorded 310.2 thousand new ones, 152.9 thousand resumed, i.e. a total of 463.1 thousand. (in 2020 and 2021, 425.3 and 436.4 thousand, respectively). However, it is still far from the best years in this respect, i.e. 2017 and 2018, when there were over 491 thousand of them in total.
The upward trend in suspended activities has been ongoing since mid-2021, when the assumptions of the Polish Deal were presented. There is no indication that it will end soon. The beginning of 2023 was not good either. By January 23, 27.7 thousand activities had been established and resumed, and as many as 40.5 thousand had been terminated and suspended.
Wnioski rocznie
| Year | Assumption* | End | Suspension | Sum |
| 2022 | 463 080 | 193 227 | 347 346 | 1 003 653 |
| 2021 | 436 365 | 176 137 | 278 282 | 890 784 |
| 2020 | 425 334 | 142 375 | 281 809 | 849 518 |
| 2019 | 470 184 | 173 320 | 306 853 | 950 357 |
| 2018 | 491 647 | 177 083 | 303 270 | 972 000 |
| 2017 | 491 234 | 178 898 | 309 242 | 979 374 |
| 2016 | 465 970 | 181 053 | 307 132 | 954 155 |
| 2015 | 476 947 | 192 987 | 311 854 | 981 788 |
| 2014 | 487 240 | 208 188 | 314 652 | 1 010 080 |
| 2013 | 486 902 | 235 630 | 312 548 | 1 035 080 |
| 2012 | 423 655 | 49 968 | 297 380 | 771 003 |
| Suma | 5 118 558 | 1 908 866 | 3 370 368 | 10 397 792 |
| * It includes applications for starting and resuming a business. Source: CEIDG | ||||
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
Starting this year, we are changing the rules for presenting the InfoCredit Business Activity Index. Instead of showing the ratio of new to closed and resumed to suspended businesses, we will publish the ratio of new and resumed to closed and suspended businesses. When the index shows positive values, it means that more businesses have been established and resumed than suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. Similarly, when the index shows values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily).
To start with, we present the index on a quarterly basis. After January, we will also present it on a monthly basis.
