Small business is getting ready for the season
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index
In April, there was still a visible recovery in economic activity, which began at the end of the first quarter. In the past month, 25.9 thousand new economic activities were registered, compared to 26.2 thousand in March 2021 and… 10.2 thousand in April 2020 – according to CEIDG data.
In April 2021, we also recorded more resumptions of activity (13.4 thousand compared to 12.5 thousand in March 2021) and fewer suspensions (16.3 thousand compared to 18.7 thousand in March 2021).
InfoCredit microenterprise indices went up again strongly after April. The indicator describing the ratio of new to closed activities increased to +11,770 points from +10,171 points after March, and the ratio of resumed to suspended increased to -2,977 from -6,133 points.
Since March, there has been a greater propensity to start and resume business activities. These may not be record values, as in the best months of last year, but it is clear that we are in a completely different situation than in April 2020. A year ago, small businesses were digging in, trying to cope with the restrictions resulting from the epidemic. Today, they are waiting for easing and trying to adapt to the opportunities that appear on the horizon.
– April and early May brought entrepreneurs hope for a return to normality. The catering and hotel industries were waiting for the restrictions to be lifted and were slowly preparing to welcome guests. Poles, in turn, finally started planning trips and vacations. This encouraged the seasonal suspension of business activities. We hope that this trend will continue. However, this will depend on the decline in the number of cases and the pace of vaccinations – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit.
The IC Index, describing the ratio of new to closed businesses, is at its highest since October 2020, when we were just entering the 2nd wave of the epidemic. In turn, the IC Index describing the ratio of reopenings to suspensions is at its highest since the summer of 2020, i.e. the holiday season, when hotels, guesthouses and restaurants could enjoy the season.
– With spring, hope returned for doing business in industries that were most affected by the epidemic. Especially since Poles want to use hotels and restaurants, the possibility of active recreation. The macro data that is coming in is quite optimistic. The first quarter of this year was rather the last in which we experienced a decline in GDP. Unemployment is relatively low, and wages in the corporate sector rose significantly in April. Although we feel inflation, interest rates are at record lows. This encourages consumption – adds Jerzy Wonka.
In his opinion, the only threat that has appeared on the horizon for entrepreneurs is the New Deal. Small businesses are currently analyzing how the burden will increase with the estimated revenues in the coming months. – I am afraid that this may affect entrepreneurs’ decisions on the choice of the form of business activity – says Jerzy Wonka.
How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and in individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than completed – negative. In the same way, we also track the ratio of resumed to suspended activities.
