January 2023 was another month in which there were more applications for the suspension and termination of business activities than those started and resumed. The InfoCredit index, which describes this relationship, has been in the red for 7 months. This means that active business activities are not increasing. On the contrary, they are decreasing.

The past month is slightly better than January 2022. In the first month of this year, 40,308 activities were started and resumed, 62,086 were ended and closed. Our index therefore reached a value of -21,778 points. In January 2022, 35,520 activities were started and resumed, and 65,386 were ended and closed. Our index was then worth -29,866 points after a slight increase since December 2021 (then -35,716 points, the lowest in history, lower even than after March 2020, when the epidemic broke out). This was the result of confusion and concerns related to the tax reform under the Polish Deal. Micro-entrepreneurs considered the changes to be unfavourable for them and began to withdraw en masse from the form of running a business in the form of a business. Now, at the turn of 2022 and 2023, it can be assumed that this is the result of the rising costs of the simplest form of running a business.

Seasonality is visible in the quotations of our index. That is – the index always drops at the turn of the year, because we note an increase in the suspension of activities. However, in recent years, this phenomenon has been gaining momentum. Similar fluctuations in the index on a monthly basis (although smaller) are observed before and after the holidays. In May and June, entrepreneurs who run their business seasonally suspend their activities, only to suspend them again after the holiday season. In turn, those who want to take advantage of holidays suspend their activities so as not to incur unnecessary costs.

InfoCredit Business Activity Index

Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values ​​below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily).