InfoCredit Micro Enterprises Index
• In April, the recovery in economic activity that started at the end of the first quarter was still visible. Last month, 25.9 thousand were registered. new business activities compared to 26.2 thous. in March 2021 and ... 10.2 thousand in April 2020 - according to CEIDG data.
• In April 2021, we also recorded more renewals of operations (13.4 thousand compared to 12.5 thousand in March 2021) and fewer suspensions (16.3 thousand compared to 18.7 thousand in March 2021).
• After April, the InfoCredit micro-enterprise indices rose strongly again. The ratio describing the relation of new to closed operations increased to +11 770 points from +10 171 points after March, and the relation of reneweds to suspended ones increased to -2977 from -6 133 points.
Since March, there has been a greater tendency to start and restart business activities. These may not be record values, as in the best months of last year, but you can see that we are in a completely different situation than in April 2020. A year ago, small business was entrenching itself, trying to cope with the limitations resulting from the epidemic. Today, it is waiting for some easing and trying to adapt to the opportunities that loom on the horizon.
- April and the beginning of May brought entrepreneurs hope for a return to normalcy. The gastronomy and hotel industry waited for the restrictions to be lifted and were slowly getting ready to receive guests. Poles, in turn, finally began to plan trips and holidays. This was conducive to the seasonal suspension of economic activities. We hope that this trend will continue. This, however, will depend on the decline in the disease and the rate of vaccination, says Jerzy Wonka, development director at InfoCredit.
The IC index, describing the relationship of new to closed activities, has been at its highest since October 2020, when we were just entering the second wave of the epidemic. In turn, the IC index describing the relation of renewals to suspensions is at the highest since summer 2020, i.e. from the holiday season, when hotels, guesthouses and restaurants could use the season.
- With the spring, hope returned to run business in industries that were most affected by the epidemic. The more so that Poles want to use hotels and restaurants, and the possibility of active recreation. The incoming macro data are quite optimistic. The first quarter of this year was rather the last in which we experienced a decline in GDP. Unemployment is relatively low, and wages in the enterprise sector rose sharply in April. We do feel inflation, but interest rates are at record low. It encourages consumption - adds Jerzy Wonka.
In his opinion, the only threat that has appeared on the horizon for entrepreneurs is the New Deal. Small business is currently analyzing how the burdens will increase with estimated revenues in the coming months. - I am afraid that this may have an impact on entrepreneurs' decisions about choosing the form of economic activity - says Jerzy Wonka.
How do we count the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is compiled by the oldest economic analysis company in Poland, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we also track the relationship of resumes to suspended activities.
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