The Polish man takes matters into his own hands because he is shortening full-time jobs

In March, the labor market changed practically overnight. The crisis has meant that now employers dictate the conditions. However, there were more new business activities throughout the first half of the year than closed (126 121 against 71 921). We recorded a worse balance in the first half of the year in renewals and suspensions - here the suspenders had the advantage (144 512 against 101 248). This was mainly the result of March's anxiety, when as many as 48 624 micro-entrepreneurs suspended their activities against only 11 433 resumers.

However, the second quarter brought a resurgence advantage (66 871 versus 49 651) and the InfoCredit micro enterprises index was clearly a plus at that time, which we practically have not recorded since April 2018. Suddenly, we have become more entrepreneurial because of the new situation? That's how it can be partly explained.

On own account

According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland, 119.9 thous. jobs. It is up to 35 percent more than last year and the most since 8 years. 24.4 percent entrepreneurs in the CSO survey as the reason pointed to the situation associated with the threat of virus and recession. April brought the largest decline in employment in 10 years. 46 thousand lost their jobs people. On the other hand - in CEIDG in April, May and June more Poles opened their businesses than closed and suspended.
 
To track alternative forms of employment and self-employment, InfoCredit, the oldest company in Poland that analyzes the economy, has prepared an index of economic activities in Poland. The indicator is legible. When there are more business than closes, the index gains a positive value. When it is less than completed - negative. In the same way, we follow the relationship of resumed and suspended operations.

From January 2018 to June 2020, the advantage of new activities over closed ones remains virtually constant. We recorded the largest in May 2018, in May and June 2019 and ... in June 2020. The exception was December 2019, when our indicator for the month took a negative value. It could have been a one-off event. On the other hand - unemployment in Poland was then record low. Companies were looking for employees and specialists. So it was a very good time to give up business uncertainty and accept a job offer full-time. The more that the end of the year is conducive to new resolutions, changes and bold decisions.

From January to May 2020, the ones starting a new business over the closing ones again had the advantage. It should be emphasized, however, that this advantage was much smaller than in the corresponding periods of 2018 and 2019. The current crisis, related to the epidemic and freezing of the economy, could have influenced Poles' decisions. However, it is difficult to say dominant. Until the first decade of March, the labor market and economy were doing well. March was already very worrying, the second quarter brought new conclusions. Unemployment increased in May to 6.0 percent This is the highest result since February 2019. The lowest was recorded in October 2019, when unemployment was 5.0 percent. The number of people registered at labor offices in May 2020 increased by 105.7 thousand y / y (11.7 percent). Counting month to month in May, 45.9 thous. unemployed.

After the first quarter, it seemed that micro-entrepreneurs succumbed to panic. March this year was undoubtedly a very bad month for Polish entrepreneurship. 48 624 entrepreneurs suspended business activities and 11 680 ended. The largest traffic in CEIDG was recorded at the end of the month. The last 10 days of March are 28 432 suspended activities and 3124 completed. "Avalanche, yellow card for the anti-crisis shield" - such comments appeared on data from CEIDG. In the following months, the situation began to normalize.

In April, 10 204 economic activities were founded, and 6696 were closed. 16 301 was resumed against 23 944 suspended. In May new and suspended activities were clearly more than closed and suspended. We recorded a similar situation in June - 20 746 activities were established, 8520 were closed. 24 757a was resumed, 12 828 was suspended. In the last two days of June we again saw a somewhat increased movement in CEIDG related to holidays - those who wanted to avoid costs during holidays suspended. However, this did not have a major impact on the quarter and month balance.

Remote does not mean full-time

On the one hand, the activity of Poles in CEIDG can be enjoyed because it suggests that they want to take matters into their own hands. On the other - it can bother you. This entrepreneurship can be forced by the need of the moment. It is no secret that it is much more beneficial for employers to cooperate with a specialist who takes on the cost of ZUS, or to create his own workplace. Preferential ZUS contributions are an additional incentive. An employee, colleague or specialist who pays the minimum premium during the first 6 months, and half over the next 2 years, becomes more competitive on the labor market. It also has the option of providing services for more than 1 entity.

- Cooperation with a self-employed person also means many other benefits for employers and entrepreneurs. It is, above all, much less bureaucracy and formalities. Many human resources and social security issues are dropped, because the self-employed person does it himself, in a very simple way. Not to mention the GDPR - believes Iwona Surdykowska-Huk, president of InfoCredit.

Dr hab. Przemysław Sadura, a sociologist from the University of Warsaw, believes that the awareness of the entire society is changing right before our eyes. Suddenly it turned out that the work does not have to be done only in the office to maintain the same level of efficiency.

- The epidemic crisis turns out to be a real game changer. The new situation has forced testing of new solutions. Those who were technologically prepared for change responded the fastest. For many companies, for example in the telecommunications industry, online sales offset real sales declines. The labor market is also becoming much more flexible - says Przemysław Sadura.

In his opinion, new opportunities emerged along with the crisis. Many companies may come to the conclusion that they no longer need the office space as in March, because some employees can still provide work from home. On the other hand - not everything can be done in this way. The ability to perform a given job remotely has become one of the key criteria characterizing various professions and will certainly affect the way risk assessment and job evaluation.

- I am also observing major changes on the higher education market and global. The best Western universities are gearing up to conduct online classes next year and prepare for expansion. If remote education becomes a standard, and this is what is happening, then we can come to the conclusion: why study at Polish universities, if you can do it at a distance at renowned Western universities? The training market can also follow a similar path. After some time of inflation of free teleconference offers, courses or webinars, paid offers will start appearing, competitive to those we have known so far - adds Przemysław Sadura.

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