Entrepreneurs vote with their feet

- The InfoCredit business activity index, describing the ratio of new to completed business activities, fell to the lowest level in two years in December 2021. It was similar with the index describing the relation of reneweds to suspended activities.

- In December 2021, there was a similar retreat from sole proprietorship as in March 2020, when entrepreneurs were terrified of restrictions due to the unfolding epidemic. One of the reasons was tax uncertainty.

- In the entire fourth quarter of 2021, we also recorded a significant increase in completed and suspended activities. It is true that this is a seasonal phenomenon, but in 2020 and 2019 these proportions were smaller.

- The past year is another, after 2020, in which we recorded a decrease in the number of applications to CEIDG below 900 thousand. in total. There were 889 thousand of them. (850 thousand. A year earlier) compared to 950 thousand. in 2019, over 970 thousand in 2017-2018 and nearly 1 million in 2015.

In December and throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, entrepreneurs who had concerns that the new regulations would significantly reduce the profitability of their businesses, joined CEIDG to submit applications for suspension and termination of operations. The effect is a significant deepening of the downward trend of the InfoCredit indices, which has been going on since May last year.

- The closer it was to the turn of the year, the greater the doubts that entrepreneurs have about the profitability of their own business. Especially those for whom any increase in the premium or charges is ultimately important. Let us recall, for example: for many larger businesses, the increase in the health insurance premium from several thousand in 2021 to the forecast several hundred thousand is an insurmountable barrier. This has been visible since May, when the assumptions of the Polish Deal were presented. In our opinion, their decision was also influenced by the rising costs of operations fueled by the inflation surge. There is also increasing talk that such an uncertain economic and tax-law situation may contribute to a significant increase in the size of the shadow economy again - says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit's development director.

The end of the year was usually favorable for decisions to close or suspend operations. However, the past month has been exceptional. 24.3 thousand were established. activities, completed 26.6 thousand. 9.1 thousand were renewed, as many as 41.9 thousand were suspended. The retreat was most visible in the last decade of December - 15.9 thousand jobs were completed. activities, and 27.2 thous. It has not been so bad since the last decade of March 2020, when 28.4 thousand were suspended. of activities and 3124 completed. - It is worth noting that in December 2021 there were much more endings than in March 2020. Then entrepreneurs withheld decisions, waiting for the situation to develop. So they chose the suspended state. Now, many of them have no doubts that the form of sole proprietorship has lost much of its attractiveness under the current conditions, adds Jerzy Wonka.

More and more suspensions and endings

The fourth quarter of 2021 in terms of applications for termination and suspension of operations was the worst in three years. In total, 53.5 thousand jobs were completed. activities and 89.5 thousand were suspended. In the same periods of previous years, it was, respectively, 40.5 thousand. and 81.4 thous. (2020) and 48.4 thous. and 89.4 thous. (2019)

The number of applications for termination and suspension of operations was increasing from month to month, until the December climax in the last decade of the month. In October and November, 23,000 were suspended. of activity, in December already 41.9 thousand. The number of completed operations grew from 12.5 thousand. in October to 14.6 thous. in November and up to 26.6 thous. in December.

Much less applications than in 2015-2019

Throughout 2021, there was a slight increase in CEIDG applications compared to 2020, when the economy suddenly entered a deep recession. In total, there were 889,138 assumptions, renewals, endings and suspensions compared to 849,518 in 2020. In the previous years, the traffic in CEIDG was much larger - 950 359 in 2019, 972,000 in 2018, 979,374 in 2017, and even nearly a million in 2015. It is worth noting that in the entire 2021, new and resumed activities (436.3 thousand) were much less than completed and suspended (453.9 thousand). It had happened in previous years, but not in such proportions.

* Includes applications for setting up and restarting a business. Source: CEIDG

How do we count the InfoCredit Index?

The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is prepared by the oldest economic analysis company in Poland, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we also track the relationship of resumes to suspended activities.