InfoCredit Micro Enterprise Index

In August, almost twice as many business activities were suspended as resumed, so the InfoCredit index fell well below 0. This is the first decline since March and it was immediately significant. However, this is not a cause for concern as it is a seasonal phenomenon.

The number of economic activities continues to increase. The new / closed ratio, on the other hand, is a strong positive. Interestingly, CEIDG traffic was much lower than in the corresponding months of 2019 and 2018.

Last month, 23 006 business activities were registered, 10 456 were closed. 10 128 activities were resumed, and 19 589 were suspended - according to preliminary CEIDG data.

The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new operations to closings, reached the value of 12,550 points, departing from this year's record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The index describing the relationship between renewed and closed operations fell to -9,461 points. This is the lowest value since March this year, when entrepreneurs, concerned about the decline in revenues as a result of the restrictions related to the epidemic, have massively suspended their activities. However, this cannot be taken as a retreat from the activity. In the same period, in recent years there has been a significant increase in suspensions, especially in the last decade of the month.

Two different indexes. What is going on?

Data for the whole month do not show this phenomenon well in the renewals and suspensions. In order to better evaluate them, it is necessary to follow the last decades of August in recent years. From 22 to 31 August 2018, 20 585 activities were suspended, 6 360 were resumed. From 22 to 31 August 2019, 18 107 activities were suspended and 4 852 were resumed. The result from this year (13 715 compared to 3544) is therefore no surprise. It is worth noting that the indicator describing the relation of new to closed operations in the last decades of August 2018-2020 was constantly in the black.

- In August, mainly those entrepreneurs who run it seasonally close their operations. This is normal. In turn, at the end of June, those who work from September to the end of the school year suspend their activities. It was similar this year. How will September be now? It seems that it should be like in previous years. Today, however, it is difficult to say something for sure, because the impact of the situation related to the epidemic on the market and the labor market cannot be predicted - says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit's development director.




How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index?

The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is prepared by the oldest economic analysis company in Poland, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we follow the relation of resumes to suspended activities.


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