InfoCredit Business Activity Index
Microbusiness on hold
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In the first three quarters of 2023, 268.6 thousand businesses were suspended. This is much more than in the same period of 2022 (249.7 thousand) and in 2021 (174.9 thousand).
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In the third quarter of 2023 alone, 96.3 thousand businesses were suspended, compared to 88.4 thousand a year ago and 72.7 thousand in 2021.
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The increase in the number of suspensions affected the InfoCredit business activity index. When counted quarterly after September 2023, it dropped significantly to -19,471 points, compared to -9,124 points a year ago and -5,523 points after September 2021.
This year, the number of suspended businesses has been growing steadily. There are about as many terminated as in 2022, the first year in which the Polish Deal was in force. And it was still a weak year for micro-entrepreneurs. New and resumed micro-businesses do not compensate for the losses. On the contrary – the imbalance between those in the plus and those in the minus is constantly deepening.
In the first three quarters of this year, 368.8 thousand businesses were established and resumed, 412.8 thousand were terminated and closed. It was similar a year ago, but the advantage of the latter was not so significant – 357.3 thousand compared to 393.7 thousand. It is also worth noting that the InfoCredit index after Q3 has never been so low.
So we can say that the simplest form of business is experiencing an increasing crisis, and the trend that began to emerge in 2020 is strengthening. Let us recall – in 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand were terminated. activity – the most since 2014. Everything indicates that last year’s inglorious records are at risk. If in the fourth quarter entrepreneurs suspend as many activities as in the third, the result from 2022 will be beaten.
There can be only one conclusion – micro-entrepreneurs need support like never before. They have been struggling with crises practically since the beginning of 2020. First with restrictions related to the epidemic, then with the effects of the war in Ukraine, inflation, increased operating costs and now with the burdens related to the Polish Deal. And on the horizon – more burdens. In accordance with the adopted assumptions of the draft state budget for 2024, the average salary will amount to PLN 7,824. This means an increase of as much as 12.8 percent compared to 2023. As a result, the amount of ZUS contributions for companies will increase significantly again. Not to mention the minimum wage.
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed business activities to closed and suspended ones. When the index is in the positive, it means that more businesses have been established and suspended than suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis.