The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat
The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In November of this year, 7,263 more businesses were established than were closed. The InfoCredit index remains in a significant positive position, but it is lower than in November 2019 (then +9,217 points). This is due to the fact that since September 2020, the number of new businesses has been falling slightly each month. The number of businesses closed since September has remained consistently above 12,000 per month. There were significantly more people suspending their businesses in November 2020 than those resuming them. The InfoCredit index has thus deepened the decline to -18,118 points. It is also lower than in November 2019 (then -14,084). Overall, however, comparing 11 months of this year to the same period in 2019, nothing alarming is happening. From January to November 2020, 243,100 businesses were established, 127,658 were closed. 155,190 were resumed, and 250,118 were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, the figures were 290,314 (new), 149,534 (closed), 149,979 (resumed) and 269,473 (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data. The closer to the end of the year, the less activity in CEIDG. It might seem that what was supposed to happen in the current – very volatile year for the economy – has already happened. – However, it is worth waiting until the end of December to draw final conclusions. At that time, the number of closed and suspended businesses usually increases significantly, seasonally. Today, after 11 months of this year, it seems that the situation is starting to stabilize. However, I do not think that this year we will improve the result from 2019 in terms of new businesses. At that time, there were almost 310 thousand of them – says Jerzy Wonka, development director of the analytical company InfoCredit. This year is very difficult for entrepreneurs. Especially the smallest ones. The end of March brought a sudden increase in the number of suspended businesses under the influence of impulse and uncertainty. The next one is a gradual increase in interest in this form of economic activity. Until September. Now, the data from 2019 and 2020 are becoming more and more comparable. Does this mean a return to normality? – Now, in October and November, we see stabilization, after six-month fluctuations. The end of the first quarter and the so-called panic among micro-entrepreneurs was a one-off phenomenon. Later, by the end of Q3, we saw an increase in interest in sole proprietorships, reaching all-time record values. This was not entirely the result of us increasingly valuing independence and having an idea for a business. For employers and clients, this is a very convenient form of remuneration for co-workers and service providers. Much more convenient than, for example, a full-time job or a civil law contract. Especially in times when you have to keep an eye on costs – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Survey: SpK about CIT
Survey: SpK about CIT 97% of surveyed entrepreneurs-co-owners of limited partnerships believe that CIT will reduce their willingness to invest. 86.5% claim that CIT will reduce their willingness to employ. 94.5% believe that as a result of the new tax, the competitiveness of limited partnerships will decrease. 65.75% are considering changing the form of business as a result of legal changes, and 27.75% are considering closing their business. – according to a survey conducted in October by InfoCredit in cooperation with CRIDO and the Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers (ZPP). Entrepreneurs and co-owners of limited partnerships unequivocally assessed the impact of introducing CIT on the future of their businesses. The survey results confirm the conclusions from the reports presented in October by CRIDO, ZPP and InfoCredit “SPK in Poland – data analysis” and “Taxation of limited partnerships in Europe”. – The changes are most disturbing for Polish, small, family companies. They were the ones who clearly dominated the survey, responding most willingly and quickly. Over 87% of the completed surveys came from companies employing up to 49 people – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit Development Director. The vast majority of respondents, as much as 97%, believe that the tax will reduce their willingness to invest. Only 2.75% claim that it will have no effect, and 0.25% that investments will increase. 86.5% claim that CIT will reduce their willingness to employ (0.25% increase, 13.25% no effect). 94.5% believe that after the introduction of double taxation, the competitiveness of their companies will decrease (1.25% increase in competitiveness, 4.25% no effect). Entrepreneurs believe that continuing to run their business as a limited partnership after the introduction of CIT ceases to be justified. As many as 65.75% are considering changing the form of business activity, and 27.75% are considering closing the company. Only 6.5% responded that CIT would not change anything. – Contrary to the declarations of the Ministry of Finance, the survey results showed what had already resulted from the reports we had prepared earlier. The overwhelming majority of entrepreneurs, especially small ones, had a decidedly negative opinion of the idea of taxing limited partnerships with CIT. We can only hope that the Senate will hear the voice of Polish entrepreneurs and organizations representing them and, as a result, such bad regulations will not be passed. All the more so because this is happening at a time of creeping lockdown and many other problems that companies have to face. In such circumstances, discouraging entrepreneurs from fighting for their businesses is a very harmful action for the economy – comments Mateusz Stańczyk, partner in the tax advisory team at CRIDO. – The survey results confirm our assumptions – taxing limited partnerships with CIT is a powerful blow to investment and employment. What’s more, it coincides with the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic, during which the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest has already fallen to a record low level. It is difficult to understand the legislator’s determination to push for this solution. It will not lead to a reduction in tax abuse, because it is not limited partnerships that are the problem in this respect – not only have we shown this in the reports published so far, but the Ministry of Finance itself has also admitted it. According to information provided by the ministry, the tax office has only challenged tax schemes using limited partnerships six times. One effect of this poor regulation may be to make it more difficult to emerge from the crisis caused by COVID-19 and to practically eliminate limited partnerships from the Polish economic landscape – says Jakub Bińkowski, director of the Department of Law and Legislation at the ZPP. About the survey The survey was conducted from 16 to 30 October in electronic form. We sent questions to limited partnerships registered in Poland and included in the InfoCredit database. We received 400 responses. The most active were micro and small businesses. 189 responses came from companies employing up to 9 people (47.25%), 160 from companies employing from 10 to 49 people (40%). Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit supports the film “The Lost River”
InfoCredit supports the film “The Lost River” InfoCredit has become an official partner and sponsor of the film “The Lost River”. This is the first documentary that tells the story of the land that once stretched along the Vistula from Warsaw’s Saska Kępa to the mouth of the Pilica. Director Adam Rogala and cameraman Wiktor Strumiłło invested their own capital to tell the story of the former granary of Warsaw, the people who fed the capital and contributed to its economic development. After the Vistula was regulated, few people remember the Urzecze today as a land flowing with milk and honey, where the local community – the Olęders, Polesieks and Oryle, i.e. the Vistula raftsmen – managed in harmony. We owe the development of the Urzecze to the Olęders – newcomers going up the Vistula from northern Poland, who in turn arrived there from Frisia and the Netherlands. They were free farmers. They leased wastelands, areas that were sometimes flooded several times a year by the Vistula. We owe it to them that raspberries, strawberries, gooseberries and currants were brought to Urzecze. Thanks to the technology they brought to the Vistula, their crops were many times higher than those obtained by serfs. They also introduced new construction technologies to minimize the effects of floods. The Olęders consciously settled south of Saska Kępa, so that it would be easier for them to sail with cargo to Warsaw. History has not been kind to the Olęders. They were expelled from Poland right after World War II. – We decided to support the film as the first sponsor and partner, because we were enchanted by this story. Together with Adam Rogala and Wiktor Strumiłło, we want to save Urzecze from oblivion. At InfoCredit, we share the values of the Vistula farmers from years ago. It is entrepreneurship, innovation, specialist knowledge, and above all freedom and tolerance. The Olęders were free people, they invested the money they earned, surrounded themselves with books – says Iwona Surdykowska-Huk, owner of InfoCredit. And he adds that especially today, when we are absorbed in everyday matters, it is worth recalling stories that are a source of inspiration, hope and motivation to act. – Urzecze owes a lot to the Olęders. Local farmers learned from them the art of farming – land and crafts. Draining wetlands and using fertile alluvial soils brought by the Vistula so that the fields would yield high yields. In the field of crafts, the Olęders shared with the indigenous people of Mazovia, for example the art of making barrels. They were a model of industriousness. Such a farmer would work even during a chat with a neighbour – trimming bushes or repairing tools. I was fascinated by their perseverance and tenacity. After all, there were times when floods that visited Urzecze took away the farmer’s entire fortune, because the house and buildings along with their belongings were carried away by the Vistula. And despite this, they had the strength to start life from scratch – says director Adam Rogala. Wiktor Strumiłło, the cameraman of the film, emphasises that the proximity of the navigable river was beneficial to the Olęders: – In the pre-embankment era of the Vistula River, there were no roads that would allow easy access to sales markets. It was easier to get to Warsaw via the Vistula, which became a motorway at the time. Rafters, who can be compared to truck drivers, sailed along it. The Urzecze became a granary for Warsaw, grain, vegetables and fruit flowed to it. Plentiful and simply delicious. But also building material for the needs of the developing city – stone, gravel and sand. The more persistent of the Olęders sailed with goods even to Gdańsk. From there, they brought home furnishings – furniture, equipment such as coffee grinding and brewing devices, unknown to their neighbours. The creators of “Urzecze” plan to distribute the film more widely, prepare an English and Dutch version and present it at Polish and international festivals. We encourage our partners and clients to support this initiative. Together we can save a beautiful story. About the film “Zaginione Urzecze”, prod. 2020. Directed by Adam Rogala, cinematography by Wiktor Strumiłło, music by “KAPELA ZE WSI WARSZAWA”, winner of the Fryderyk 2018 for the music project RE:AKCJA MAZOWIECKA. Patron of the film: InfoCredit Teaser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpx3cqVyvGo&feature=youtu.be Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Press release
Press release Limited Partnerships in Europe and CIT Contrary to the claims of the Ministry of Finance, in most of the countries analyzed in Europe, limited partnerships (or similar ones) are tax-transparent companies. The taxation of limited partnerships in other European countries is not related to the intensified fight against tax avoidance in recent years. Most rationally operating companies will change the form of conducting business to a form that ensures the current level of taxation and foreign companies will pay the same as before. The state budget will not gain much, Polish entrepreneurs busy fighting for survival in the times of the pandemic will lose – according to the report by CRIDO, ZPP and InfoCredit “Taxation of limited partnerships in Europe”. The authors of the report looked at the taxation of limited partnerships in 16 European countries. In most of the countries analyzed, limited partnerships are tax-transparent (not taxed with CIT). They include: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Malta, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom. In other countries, CIT taxation of a limited partnership results from the historically adopted legal system. Importantly, none of the countries analysed introduced taxation of limited partnerships in the last 5 years. This indicates that in none of these countries taxation of limited partnerships is related to the intensified fight against tax avoidance in recent years. Among the limited partnerships subject to taxation, in France and the Czech Republic, income attributable to the general partner is still not subject to taxation at the level of the limited partnership (contrary to the assumptions of the Polish amendment). In none of the countries analysed are there any differences in the taxation of partners due to the degree of connections between them (i.e. limited partners holding shares in the company that is the general partner). Polish small family businesses will pay more than their counterparts in Germany In the event of the introduction of double taxation of limited partnerships in Poland, compared to the conditions of functioning of limited partnerships in Germany, the situation of Polish small family companies generating annual income not exceeding approx. PLN 230,000 will significantly deteriorate. Despite the use of the preferential 9% CIT rate by Polish SPK, the level of taxation of Polish partners will be higher than the analogous taxation of partners of German limited partnerships despite their being subject to progressive taxation. This situation will affect at least 13 thousand limited partnerships in Poland. The state budget will not gain much Due to EU regulations and international law, CIT taxation of limited partnerships will not threaten the competitive position of such companies with foreign capital in Poland. They will continue to pay tax at the same level (i.e. 19%). On the other hand, Polish entrepreneurs, wanting to maintain their competitive position, will choose an alternative form of conducting business activity. Some of them will transform into a general partnership or a professional partnership. In this way, they will be forced to sacrifice their own safety and that of their families in order to maintain the current level of taxation and competitiveness. Others (mainly larger entities) will conduct business through a limited liability company based on holding structures. As a result, the effect on the state budget will be minimal, because while protecting their competitive position, Polish companies will save themselves by changing their structure. The structure of companies in Poland and Germany In the years 2010-2019, the number of new companies in Poland grew rapidly. The largest number (176.7 thousand) were limited liability companies, which in 2019 constituted 83% of all companies in Poland. There are as many as 429.1 thousand of them compared to 40.6 thousand limited partnerships, which constitute only 7% of all companies in Poland. In Germany, this percentage is more than twice as high and amounts to 15%. Despite the significant increase in the number of limited partnerships in recent years, if only due to the reduction of business risk for entrepreneurs, we are far behind our western neighbor in this respect. – We see other alternative solutions that could help achieve the goal of reducing the risk of untaxed transfer of limited partnership income abroad, e.g. by imposing on the limited partnership the obligations of a payer. In such a situation, a limited partnership with foreign partners – acting as a payer – would be obliged to pay tax on the limited partnership income to the Polish office. Such an alternative scenario would protect Polish entrepreneurs from increased taxation while maintaining their competitive position in relation to foreign entities – comments Mateusz Stańczyk, partner in the tax advisory team at CRIDO. – The fact that limited partnerships are not used for the purposes of international tax optimization was already proven by a report published at the beginning of October. This was later confirmed by the response of the Ministry of Finance to the request for information submitted by the ZPP on this matter public. The latest report also indicates that, in general, limited partnerships are rather transparent tax-wise in Europe. The opposite regulations, i.e. those covering CIT limited partnerships, are the result of a historically adopted approach rather than intensified actions to tighten the system. It turns out, therefore, that the arguments used by the Ministry of Finance in the justification for the draft act are not based on reality. The only effect of taxing CIT limited partnerships will be a deterioration of the competitive position of Polish entrepreneurs, who will be burdened to a greater extent than their foreign counterparts – says Jakub Bińkowski, director of the Department of Law and Legislation at the ZPP. – Entrepreneurs conducting business in the form of limited partnerships are very concerned about the tax changes. All the more so because the economic situation has weakened and their costs, related to, for example, switching to a safe mode of work and investing in new communication technologies, are growing. We are collecting their opinions
September is once again a month of suspensions
September is once again a month of suspensions InfoCredit Microenterprise Index InfoCredit’s forecasts for September have been confirmed. The number of new businesses continues to grow, and the InfoCredit indicator describing the ratio of businesses being established to those being closed is again rising strongly. It is true that we have noted a significant predominance of suspended businesses over those being resumed, but this is a typical phenomenon at the end of August and September, when the holiday season ends. New burdens may increase the attractiveness of the simplest form of entrepreneurship. In September, 26,797 new businesses were established, 13,796 were closed. 11,889 were resumed and 26,084 were suspended – according to preliminary CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, rose from 12,550 points to 13,001 points. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses being resumed to those being closed fell from -9,461 points to -14,195 points. As usual, most businesses were suspended in the last days of the month. In the last ten days of September, i.e. from 21 to 30 September, CEIDG received 15,550 such applications (as many as 11,508 in the last 3 days). This is a planned action that usually repeats itself at this time of year. We noted a similar phenomenon in the last 10 days of September 2018, when 14,277 were suspended, and in 2019, when 16,199 were suspended. On the other hand, those starting new businesses still have a big advantage over those closing them. This means that this form of entrepreneurship is holding up very well. The number of micro-entrepreneurs is still record-breaking, taking into account the whole picture of the situation. In the entire third quarter of this year, 75,443 new businesses were created, 34,340 were closed. 37,199 businesses were resumed, and 57,043 were suspended. The simplest form of business will still be popular In the coming months, it will still be worth closely monitoring applications submitted to CEIDG. This is related not only to rising labor costs, a more difficult situation on the labor market and market flexibility. Changes in the forms of taxation of entrepreneurs may also have an impact on traffic in CEIDG. – We are closely monitoring the plans to impose CIT on limited partnerships. Our databases show that this will affect almost 73 thousand entrepreneurs who are co-owners of approximately 43 thousand limited partnerships. Our calculations show that after the changes are introduced, as many as 25% of limited partnerships, which account for 90% of the revenue generated by these businesses (i.e. almost PLN 300 billion annually!) will pay 19% CIT. Effectively, the interest rate for partners in these companies, mainly Polish entrepreneurs, will increase to 34% or, in the case of people paying the solidarity tax, to 38% – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit Development Director. In his opinion, the introduction of double taxation for partners in limited partnerships may cause them to start analyzing other forms of conducting business, including economic activity. – The InfoCredit Index has been signaling for many months that when there are fewer positions, there are more sole proprietorships. And these have a much lower ability to achieve market success than limited partnerships, which already have an established position on the market – adds Jerzy Wonka. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
CIT and limited partnerships
CIT and limited partnerships The inclusion of limited partnerships in CIT will increase the burden on tens of thousands of Polish entrepreneurs The inclusion of limited partnerships in the CIT tax will lead to a significant increase in taxes for nearly 73,000 Polish entrepreneurs. The most dynamic businesses will suffer the most, as they will not have the chance to benefit from the lower 9% CIT rate, and the actual taxation of partners in these partnerships will increase to 34%-38% instead of the current 19%-23%. Only 1% of limited partnerships have foreign partners, and their share in the total number of partners in limited partnerships is 0.4%, which means that the potential risk of untaxed transfer of profits abroad is marginal – according to a report presented during a joint conference of CRIDO, ZPP and InfoCredit. Consequences for business In connection with the planned tax changes (as of October 2, 2020), there will be a significant increase in the tax rate for nearly 73,000 Polish entrepreneurs. Around 75% of companies with lower turnover will be able to benefit from a 9% CIT rate instead of 19%. However, as many as 25% of limited partnerships responsible for 90% of the revenues generated by these businesses (i.e. nearly PLN 300 billion per year!) will pay 19% CIT. Effectively, the interest rate for partners in these companies, mainly Polish entrepreneurs, will increase to 34% or, in the case of people paying the solidarity levy, to 38%. Even Estonian CIT will not help The new tax benefit in the form of the so-called Estonian CIT does not cover limited partnerships. Even assuming that some entrepreneurs decide to transform into a capital company (LLC or S.A.), it will probably also remain, apart from this, a preferential tax regime – this form of activity is popular in particular among entrepreneurs operating in the trade and services industry, which means no investment expenses that are a condition for using this form of taxation. Limited partnerships are not commonly used for international tax optimization Contrary to the justification of the planned changes, the data do not indicate that limited partnerships are used in international tax optimization schemes. In Poland, approximately 43,000 limited partnerships conduct active business activity. According to the analysis of CRIDO experts, based on data from the InfoCredit database, 92% of limited partnerships are businesses run by individuals from Poland. 72,705 thousand Poles run their businesses in this form. For comparison, only 0.4% of partners in limited partnerships in Poland come from abroad. In first place are Germany (151 partners), for whom this form of running a business is quite common and which is indicated as one of the reasons for Germany’s economic success. In subsequent places are Luxembourg (113 partners), Cyprus (41) and Great Britain (39). We are talking about the entire country and many industries Limited partnerships are scattered all over the country. The largest number of them are in the following voivodeships: Mazowieckie (11,290), Wielkopolskie (5,611), Małopolskie (4,744) and Śląskie (3,792). They operate in various industries, most of them deal with industrial processing, construction and trade. Many transport and logistics companies and the catering industry also operate in this way. This form has allowed more than one Polish entrepreneur to develop, who, having a “flair” for business and running it, was able to simultaneously limit the risk for his family. – The combination of single taxation at the rate of 19% with limiting the risk of running a family business is a positive incentive and motivator for the development of entrepreneurship. This is shown by the example of Germany, whose economic power grew precisely on family businesses run in the form of limited partnerships. The planned double taxation of limited partnerships will not only be a negative signal for Polish, committed entrepreneurs, but will also put domestic companies in a worse market position in relation to their foreign competitors. Taking into account the EU directive, the so-called Parent-Subsidiary, a foreign investor from the EU will pay no more than 19% of income tax – comments Mateusz Stańczyk, partner at CRIDO. – Including limited partnerships in the CIT tax is a bad idea. The data does not indicate that these are entities used for international optimization schemes. However, they are an attractive form of conducting business for Polish, dynamically developing businesses. It should be emphasized that this is another proposal to increase the burden of taxes, which has appeared in a relatively short time. Meanwhile, according to our research, the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest is the lowest in years – this is not happening without a reason. Multiple changes in regulations, the sudden introduction of new burdens, the lack of basic legal security for companies are the main reasons why the investment rate in Poland is far from the level of 25% of GDP expected according to the Strategy for Responsible Development – claims Jakub Bińkowski, director of the Department of Law and Legislation of the Association of Entrepreneurs and Employers. – Today, more than ever before, every proposed change to the tax system should also be analyzed in the context of employment. Greater burdens for tens of thousands of Polish entrepreneurs may mean a reduced willingness to create new jobs or maintain existing ones. InfoCredit will soon conduct a survey among entrepreneurs so that they can assess the proposed changes to taxation in the context of employment and their market opportunities. We will share the results of this survey with you in October. The InfoCredit index has been signaling for many months that when there are fewer jobs, the number of sole proprietorships increases. And these have a much lower ability to achieve market success than companies with an established position – says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit Development Director. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
End of August? We are suspending
End of August? We are suspending InfoCredit Microenterprise Index In August, almost twice as many businesses were suspended as were resumed, so the InfoCredit index fell well below 0. This is the first drop since March and immediately significant. However, this is not a reason to worry, because it is a seasonal phenomenon. The number of businesses is still growing. The new/closed ratio, in turn, is strongly positive. Interestingly, traffic in CEIDG was much lower than in the corresponding months of 2019 and 2018. Last month, 23,006 businesses were registered, 10,456 were closed. 10,128 businesses were resumed, and 19,589 were suspended – according to preliminary CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 12,550 points, moving away from this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses reopened to those closed fell to -9,461 points. This is the lowest value since March of this year, when entrepreneurs concerned about the decline in revenues as a result of restrictions related to the epidemic massively suspended their businesses. However, this cannot be treated as a retreat from business. In the same period in recent years, there was a significant increase in suspensions, especially in the last decade of the month. Two different index readings. What’s the deal? The data from the entire month do not show this phenomenon well in terms of resumptions and suspensions. To better assess them, you need to look at the last decades of August in recent years. From 22 to 31.08.2018, 20,585 businesses were suspended, 6,360 were resumed. From 22 to 31.08.2019, 18,107 businesses were suspended, and 4,852 were resumed. This year’s result (13,715 vs. 3,544) is therefore no surprise. It is worth emphasizing that the indicator describing the ratio of new to closed businesses in the last decades of August 2018 – 2020 was constantly positive. – In August, mainly those entrepreneurs who run their businesses seasonally close their businesses. This is a normal phenomenon. In turn, at the end of June, those who work from September to the end of the school year suspend their businesses. This year was similar. What will it be like in September? It seems that it should be the same as in previous years. Today, however, it is difficult to say anything for sure, because the impact of the situation related to the epidemic on the market and the labor market cannot be predicted – says Jerzy Wonka, development director at InfoCredit. How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index? The InfoCredit Index was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed businesses – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
Labor market data better than forecasts
Labor market data better than forecasts In July 2020, average employment in the corporate sector was 2.3% lower y/y and amounted to 6,252 thousand. The average monthly salary (gross) was 3.8% higher y/y and amounted to PLN 5,381.65 – reported the Central Statistical Office. However, the number of people working on their own was still growing – the InfoCredit Index remains strongly positive. A similar trend can be seen in August (until 17.08). The Central Statistical Office data describing the situation on the labor market were better than forecasted. On the other hand – employment is still falling, and salaries have increased slightly faster than inflation (3.0% in July). It is no wonder that since it is harder to get a job, Poles are starting their own business. In July, 25,640 business activities were registered, 10,088 were closed. 15,182 activities were resumed, and 11,370 were suspended – according to CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 15,552 points, remaining close to this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of reopened businesses to those closed fell to 3,812 points, but remained clearly in the black. It has been above 0 for the third month in a row, which has not happened since the beginning of 2018. Previously, in 2019 and 2018, it only came out positive twice. In August (until 17.08), the InfoCredit index continues to be in the black. Until 17 August, the IC Index indicates +8,131 in terms of new/closed businesses and +1,230 – resumed/suspended. We wrote more about economic activities in July here: https://infocredit.pl/en/infocredit-microenterprise-index-06-08-2020/ Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index 06/08/2020
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index 06/08/2020 New businesses are still growing, the indicator is close to record values In July, those who want to take matters into their own hands still had a clear advantage. This is true both among new entrepreneurs and those who already know the taste of their own business and have suspended it for various reasons. The holiday season did not change much here. 25,640 businesses were registered, 10,088 were closed. 15,182 businesses were resumed, and 11,370 were suspended – according to CEIDG data. The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new businesses to those closed, reached 15,552 points, remaining close to this year’s record and the highest values from 2019 and 2018. The indicator describing the ratio of businesses being resumed to those being closed fell to 3,812 points, but remained clearly positive. It has remained above 0 for three months in a row, which has not happened since the beginning of 2018. Previously, in 2019 and 2018, it was positive only twice. Self-employed means cheaper The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than completed – negative. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses. Data from the last 4 months confirm that the panic we saw among entrepreneurs in March was a one-off event. At that time, 48,624 entrepreneurs suspended their business activity, and 11,680 ended it. In the last 10 days alone, 28,432 businesses were suspended and 3,124 were terminated. What does this mean? We are certainly gradually adapting to the new reality. Those who were to suspend or terminate their business due to the epidemic have already done so. Today, they are gradually returning to it or waiting for a better moment. On the other hand, changes in the labor market are forcing a return to self-employment. An employee or specialist running his or her own business is more competitive on the labor market because he or she is cheaper from the employer’s perspective. We are waiting for the holidays with resumptions During the holiday season, the number of resumptions of business activity dropped significantly, which had an impact on the total number of applications that went through the CEIDG system. This is the lowest this year. In total, the system processed 62,280 applications from entrepreneurs, compared to 72,639 in June. In March this year, which was exceptional due to the sudden increase in suspensions, as many as 90,028 applications were submitted. This is due to the fact that some micro-entrepreneurs, mainly those who do not employ employees, suspend their business for the holidays to simply rest. And since there is no income, they do not want to incur costs either. 15,182 businesses were resumed, compared to 25,576 in June and 23,597 in May. However, the InfoCredit index describing the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses remained positive. There was no significant increase in business suspensions – 11,370 were recorded, compared to 9,582 in June and 11,278 in May. Those who wanted to freeze their micro-businesses had already done so before the holidays. And especially in March, when the economy was frozen. Interestingly, the seasonal decline is not visible among new, closed and suspended businesses. – This year, our index is behaving differently than in previous years. That is why it is worth following it. The best example is March. In the following months, it seemed that the economy was slowly returning to normal. There was a demand for seasonal work. Poles are eager to take vacations. What will happen next? Nobody knows and it is increasingly difficult to make forecasts. On the one hand, the June data from the Central Statistical Office on unemployment, average wages and employment in the enterprise sector were better than expected. On the other hand, in June there were 208 thousand more unemployed people year on year. That is a lot. The number of cases is growing instead of falling, so we have to return to restrictions. I think that in the coming months the data and indications of our index may still surprise us a lot – says Jerzy Wonka, Development Director at InfoCredit. Previous newsNext news Potrzebujesz wyceny lub zamówienia? Napisz do nas bok@inocredit.pl