The traffic in CEIDG has weakened somewhat
InfoCredit Microenterprise Index
In November of this year, 7,263 more businesses were established than were closed. The InfoCredit index remains in a significant positive position, but it is lower than in November 2019 (then +9,217 points). This is due to the fact that since September 2020, the number of new businesses has been falling slightly each month. The number of businesses closed since September has remained consistently above 12,000 per month.
There were significantly more people suspending their businesses in November 2020 than those resuming them. The InfoCredit index has thus deepened the decline to -18,118 points. It is also lower than in November 2019 (then -14,084). Overall, however, comparing 11 months of this year to the same period in 2019, nothing alarming is happening.
From January to November 2020, 243,100 businesses were established, 127,658 were closed. 155,190 were resumed, and 250,118 were suspended. For comparison – in the same period last year, the figures were 290,314 (new), 149,534 (closed), 149,979 (resumed) and 269,473 (suspended) respectively – according to CEDIG data.
The closer to the end of the year, the less activity in CEIDG. It might seem that what was supposed to happen in the current – very volatile year for the economy – has already happened.
– However, it is worth waiting until the end of December to draw final conclusions. At that time, the number of closed and suspended businesses usually increases significantly, seasonally. Today, after 11 months of this year, it seems that the situation is starting to stabilize. However, I do not think that this year we will improve the result from 2019 in terms of new businesses. At that time, there were almost 310 thousand of them – says Jerzy Wonka, development director of the analytical company InfoCredit.
This year is very difficult for entrepreneurs. Especially the smallest ones. The end of March brought a sudden increase in the number of suspended businesses under the influence of impulse and uncertainty. The next one is a gradual increase in interest in this form of economic activity. Until September. Now, the data from 2019 and 2020 are becoming more and more comparable. Does this mean a return to normality?
– Now, in October and November, we see stabilization, after six-month fluctuations. The end of the first quarter and the so-called panic among micro-entrepreneurs was a one-off phenomenon. Later, by the end of Q3, we saw an increase in interest in sole proprietorships, reaching all-time record values. This was not entirely the result of us increasingly valuing independence and having an idea for a business. For employers and clients, this is a very convenient form of remuneration for co-workers and service providers. Much more convenient than, for example, a full-time job or a civil law contract. Especially in times when you have to keep an eye on costs – adds Jerzy Wonka.
How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit Index was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes on a positive value when there are more new businesses than closures. When there are fewer than closed ones – a negative value. In the same way, we track the ratio of resumed to suspended businesses.
