IC index bounces off the bottom
INFOCREDIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR
In the first quarter of 2023, there were again – for the third time in a row – more applications for termination and suspension of business activities in Poland than for establishment and resumption. The InfoCredit index, describing this relationship, is therefore still in the red – both quarterly and monthly. It is somewhat comforting that the index has moved away from the bottom of 2022 and 2021. The situation is improving slightly from month to month.
In the first three months of 2023, 119,847 business activities were established and resumed, 147,601 thousand were terminated and resumed. The index was therefore worth -27,754 points quarterly. This is much better than in the fourth quarter of 2022 (-41,060 points) and better than in the first quarter of 2022 (-44,087). January 2023 was still quite weak (the index after the first month was worth -17,202 points), but the following months brought a rebound. In February, there were 6,234 more closed and suspended businesses than new and reopened ones, and in March only 925 more. Does this mean we will soon break even? The trend is upward.
April, May and June are seasonally conducive to starting and resuming business activities. This was the case last year and previous years. April 2020 was an exception, but that was only the second month of restrictions due to the pandemic. This year, everything indicates that we will now come out on top. There were 6,284 more businesses started and resumed in April than closed and suspended businesses (as of 18.04).
Seasonality in CEIDG data is very visible. Usually, in the first and fourth quarters there was a retreat from business, the second and third quarters of the year balanced these outflows and even brought a surplus. In recent years, however, a very disturbing phenomenon of a crisis in the simplest form of running a business has been visible. Business activities have been gradually decreasing. Let us recall – 2021 was already disturbing in this respect. In 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand businesses were suspended, which was a record. 193.2 thousand were terminated. business – the most since 2014. The main reason was unstable tax regulations and rising business costs. What will happen this year? For now, we can talk about a slight rebound. We will be able to say more after Q2 and Q3 of this year.
InfoCredit Business Activity Index
Our business activity index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more businesses were established and re-established than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the tendency to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of business activity. The more the index is negative, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and monthly basis.
